Afghanistan: 'the real danger now is that the world will forget'
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Version 0 of 1. The Afghan president, Ashraf Ghani, will meet foreign leaders in London on Thursday with little to show for two months in power but with a pressing need to persuade international donors to stay involved as concerns intensify that fragile gains won over 13 years may be lost as most foreign troops withdraw. Ghani, who formed a power-sharing government in September after a disputed election, has not yet named his cabinet. Meanwhile, Taliban insurgents have increased attacks as if to underline just how pivotal these next months are. The withdrawal of most Nato troops has triggered soul-searching about the achievements of a 13-year military mission that cost billions of dollars and thousands of lives, including those of 2,210 American and 453 British soldiers. Ahead of the conference, the Taliban has struck again and again, killing Afghans and foreigners. Last Thursday, a suicide bomber attacked a British diplomatic convoy near Kabul, killing six people including a British embassy security guard. The week before, about 50 people were killed when a suicide bomber attacked spectators at a volleyball match near the border with Pakistan. “We are hitting the kinds of peak levels of violence that we haven’t seen since the troop surge of 2011 … What is terrifying is that it means the war will very much continue in our absence,” said Graeme Smith, senior analyst at International Crisis Group. According to the Cost of War project, based at Brown University’s Watson Institute for International Studies in the US, at least 21,000 civilians are estimated to have died as a result of the war, as of February 2014. In London, Ghani and former rival Abdullah Abdullah, who holds the prime ministerial post of chief executive officer, will meet David Cameron and representatives of other governments to evaluate progress on mutual commitments. The British government says the conference will allow Afghanistan to show its commitment to reform, looking ahead to the “transformation decade” to 2024. Ghani could face tough questions on the budget deficit, the failure to form a cabinet, his commitment to women’s rights and his security forces’ ability to counter the Taliban threat. The Nato force will shrink from a peak of about 140,000 soldiers in 2011 to 12,000 after 31 December. Recently, President Barack Obama approved an expanded combat mission for the remaining troops, allowing them to engage insurgents and provide air support. But Afghan forces are already taking heavy casualties and the withdrawal deprives the economy of the benefits of tens of thousands of foreign troops stationed in the country: there will no longer be demand for armies of trucks to carry gravel, diesel or other inputs to military bases, and construction activity is expected to slow. “The Afghan economy is a war bubble and we are seeing it slowly deflate,” said Smith. “While we’re putting Afghanistan through these shocking political and military transitions, it behoves us to try to ease the economic transition – to smooth the way with some cash.” But many international partners are disillusioned after 13 years of administrative corruption. Although Ghani represents a new start after Hamid Karzai’s discredited presidency, it is not clear yet whether this will be enough to guarantee long-term financial support. Afghanistan depends on foreign assistance for two-thirds of its budget. Smith says history has shown that when troops pull out of a country, funds tend to follow. “When you don’t have fresh-faced British soldiers whose lives are at risk, it’s much easier to turn off the tap. And that’s the real danger now for Afghanistan: that the world will forget.” The negative impacts of the withdrawal are already being felt in other spheres, and there are fears that years of work to bolster human rights, education and justice may be undermined. Ahead of the conference, Oxfam warned that women risked being excluded from any future peace talks with the Taliban. Activists want Britain and other donors to insist that women’s rights are protected during any negotiations. At a pre-summit meeting of civil society activists, dubbed the Ayenda conference (“future” in the Dari language), in London on Wednesday, delegates spoke of the shrinking humanitarian space. “The situation of Afghanistan, especially regarding security, is deteriorating and humanitarian funds have declined,” said Sabirullah Memlawal, chief administrator of Japan International Volunteer Centre, which runs health and education projects in Afghanistan. “The circle has been limited. Humanitarian workers cannot move freely so that is a concern,” he added. Umbrella advocacy group Baag (British and Irish Agencies Afghanistan Group), which organised the Ayenda event, said 60% of delegates – representing about 30 groups – felt less safe after the past year, half had received death threats or had been intimidated while more than 70% had seen a reduction in funding. “There is a clear picture of people feeling abandoned, vulnerable, underfunded,” said Jawed Nader, director of Baag. “We risk leaving our colleagues in Afghanistan with a feeling of betrayal, that we are turning our back on them and leaving them exposed, both in terms of security and financially.” Speaking at the conference Desmond Swayne, minister of state for international development, said: “We have, all of us in this room ... invested a great deal in the future of Afghanistan and we are about to invest a great deal more. I quite believe that Afghanistan has a very bright future ahead of it,” adding that if Afghanistan failed to reach its potential, it must not be because of neglect by civil society or donors. “Let no one be able to point at us, civil society or donors, and say it was because you didn’t do enough.” Najiba, an Afghan delegate who did not want to give her last name because of the sensitive nature of her work, trained as a paralegal with ActionAid to help women report cases of violence and runs a women’s shelter in Bamyan. She said good governance was essential to guarantee the rights of women and youths, and she felt women’s lives had not drastically improved over the past 13 years. In Bamyan, she said, most women were not aware of their rights, and those who were faced too many obstacles in realising them. Insecurity was also creating a “horrifying situation” for women. “One of the outcomes from the London conference should be to focus on the judicial system and access for women. I don’t know what mechanisms are available [but] it should be monitored constantly. The framework must … be monitored by international community,” she said, speaking in Dari through a translator. Inside the conference room, delegates took their seats under a screen proclaiming: The Ayenda Conference: Fulfilling Afghan Futures. But for Najiba, who has resolved more than 100 domestic violence cases, fear has replaced hope for many. “In Kabul, I hear people saying ‘ if we go out, we don’t anticipate coming home alive’,” said the mother of two teenage boys and a girl of eight. “In other countries, people think about the future, but in Afghanistan, it’s a constant struggle for survival.” |