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| State politics should be more than a promise orgy: five things that matter from the Victorian election | State politics should be more than a promise orgy: five things that matter from the Victorian election |
| (34 minutes later) | |
| Well that’s just about it from this election. So what’s it all been about? To be honest, I’m not entirely sure. Somehow bubbling underneath the promise orgy has been a story about rapid population growth and a slowing and changing economy. | Well that’s just about it from this election. So what’s it all been about? To be honest, I’m not entirely sure. Somehow bubbling underneath the promise orgy has been a story about rapid population growth and a slowing and changing economy. |
| There’s been a lot of noise, and a lot of negativity. But here are five things we’ve learned that might still matter on Sunday. | There’s been a lot of noise, and a lot of negativity. But here are five things we’ve learned that might still matter on Sunday. |
| State politics is in trouble. | State politics is in trouble. |
| Judging by this election, it would be hard to dispute that state politics is intellectually shallow, little more than slogans and shopping lists desperately in need of a framework. | Judging by this election, it would be hard to dispute that state politics is intellectually shallow, little more than slogans and shopping lists desperately in need of a framework. |
| State politics has become small-minded. A big reason is that states have lost so much of their traditional constitutional power to Canberra since the Whitlam government started to intrude into state areas. | State politics has become small-minded. A big reason is that states have lost so much of their traditional constitutional power to Canberra since the Whitlam government started to intrude into state areas. |
| So states can promise the world on jobs – Labor has promised 100,000 jobs over four years, the Coalition has doubled that to 200,0000 over five – but employment is more influenced by the health of the national economy than the state economy. | |
| States can promise the world on transport, but as Tony Abbott has made clear, he holds the purse strings. He won’t give $3bn of federal money to Labor’s big urban rail link project, because he refuses to fund public transport. It’s the Coalition’s East West Link road tunnel or nothing. | |
| They can promise the cost of living will come down, but have little power to deliver it. They don’t control such things as electricity, petrol prices or grocery prices. | They can promise the cost of living will come down, but have little power to deliver it. They don’t control such things as electricity, petrol prices or grocery prices. |
| State governments are reluctant to admit their impotence, which is understandable. But it means there is little honesty about what is achievable, and little attempt to reconcile the public’s demand for services and the state’s revenue. | |
| So the campaign becomes surreal. The overall sense is of endless promises to tiny constituencies (and some big bucks to a few projects, too). This week Labor announced $1m to “make sure rural brigades get toilets ... the days of fire-fighters digging a hole out the back of the CFA shed are over”. | |
| As former premier Jeff Kennett put it in his campaign wrap for the Herald Sun, “the public juices have not been stirred”. Why? “We have nothing to buy into.” | As former premier Jeff Kennett put it in his campaign wrap for the Herald Sun, “the public juices have not been stirred”. Why? “We have nothing to buy into.” |
| We have to do better on infrastructure | We have to do better on infrastructure |
| The East West Link has stirred the public juices, as Jeff would put it. That’s because it’s a stand-in for a discussion about the future of Melbourne. | The East West Link has stirred the public juices, as Jeff would put it. That’s because it’s a stand-in for a discussion about the future of Melbourne. |
| The capital is growing faster than any other – it will be home to almost 8 million people by mid-century, up from 4.3 million now. How are we going to live, how are we going to get around and will it be a city worth living in? | The capital is growing faster than any other – it will be home to almost 8 million people by mid-century, up from 4.3 million now. How are we going to live, how are we going to get around and will it be a city worth living in? |
| The East West Link will cost about $17bn for its two stages. It’s said to be the biggest infrastructure project in the state’s history. Whether you agree or disagree with the giant cross-city toll road and tunnel, the process has been unedifying. | |
| It’s the same story around the country. The link has never been a top priority for Infrastructure Australia (IA), the body charged with assessing the nation’s most critical projects. But IA is routinely ignored. | It’s the same story around the country. The link has never been a top priority for Infrastructure Australia (IA), the body charged with assessing the nation’s most critical projects. But IA is routinely ignored. |
| Everyone knows this is a problem, but politics always gets in the way. The federal government promised before the election “all commonwealth-funded projects worth more than $100m would be required to undergo a cost-benefit analysis by Infrastructure Australia”. These were meant to be made public. | |
| But the government is giving $3bn of taxpayer money to help fund Victoria’s link when none of this has been done. | |
| If we’re going to make huge decisions that will impact profoundly on our cities, the public deserve to know on what basis the decisions were made. But that isn’t happening. The Productivity Commission has specifically rejected the Victorian government’s rationale for secrecy around the link’s business case. | If we’re going to make huge decisions that will impact profoundly on our cities, the public deserve to know on what basis the decisions were made. But that isn’t happening. The Productivity Commission has specifically rejected the Victorian government’s rationale for secrecy around the link’s business case. |
| For some reason, even the amount of the tolls has not been announced. NSW released the WestConnex tolls in October last year. | |
| It’s a mess, which leads to cynicism, which is corrosive. Labor has promised an independent Infrastructure Victoria to evaluate and prioritise projects and release detailed information to the public. NSW and Queensland have their own versions. The minister will still have the final decision, but if that promise is kept in both in practice and in spirit, it will be a step forward. | |
| Trust goes both ways | Trust goes both ways |
| The Coalition has repeated the mantra used by many an incumbent: “who do you trust” to manage the economy and build for the future? | The Coalition has repeated the mantra used by many an incumbent: “who do you trust” to manage the economy and build for the future? |
| For any political party to ask for trust these days requires real chutzpah. At a surface level, it’s about promises, and whether or not they are kept. | For any political party to ask for trust these days requires real chutzpah. At a surface level, it’s about promises, and whether or not they are kept. |
| But it’s not really about people keeping a ledger of every promise made and broken. It is about whether people think they are being deliberately lied to before elections. | |
| So Labor “promises” to build a $9-11bn Melbourne metro rail link to expand the city loop. The only money they’ve set aside for it is $300m and it relies on $3bn of money the commonwealth will not hand over. It is extremely unlikely this central promise will start in the next term of government. | |
| The bayside suburb of Frankston has been promised a transit train station for 40 years, by both sides of politics, and has been again this time, by both sides of politics. Memories may be short, but politics seems to depend on people forgetting. | |
| The Coalition promised 40 new trains at the last election, and has so far delivered seven. This election, it is promising 75 new suburban trains, a new one “every month for the next decade”. | The Coalition promised 40 new trains at the last election, and has so far delivered seven. This election, it is promising 75 new suburban trains, a new one “every month for the next decade”. |
| It is impossible for the public to make sense of this. As there’s no bigger story in state politics, the focus is on promises, with intense focus on how individuals might individually benefit. | It is impossible for the public to make sense of this. As there’s no bigger story in state politics, the focus is on promises, with intense focus on how individuals might individually benefit. |
| The smaller the politics, the louder the rhetoric. So all sides slag off the other in state politics with an intensity in inverse proportion to what’s at stake. | The smaller the politics, the louder the rhetoric. So all sides slag off the other in state politics with an intensity in inverse proportion to what’s at stake. |
| “Something is rotten in the Labor party, Don’t trust Daniel Andrews”, was one Liberal tweet this week. Labor talks as though Victoria was a dysfunctional basket case, which it isn’t. If both sides scream that neither can be trusted, the public hears that too, and agrees. | |
| The obsession with marginals is unfair and is killing interest in politics. | The obsession with marginals is unfair and is killing interest in politics. |
| State politics is mostly about the delivery of services and infrastructure projects. Big reforms are mostly confined to the federal sphere, apart from areas like law reform. So promises to individual marginal seats become critical. There’s nothing new in this, but it’s now so blatant it breeds cynicism. State politics has become a “what’s in it for me?” game. | State politics is mostly about the delivery of services and infrastructure projects. Big reforms are mostly confined to the federal sphere, apart from areas like law reform. So promises to individual marginal seats become critical. There’s nothing new in this, but it’s now so blatant it breeds cynicism. State politics has become a “what’s in it for me?” game. |
| The good people of Yan Yean, the north-eastern seat on a margin of 0.1%, have been promised an extraordinary $1bn from each of the major parties, according to one calculation. | |
| The good people of Ballarat have been promised such things as: | |
| Then there are the good people of Preston, a northern suburbs seat held by Labor since 1945. It is one of the safest seats in the state on a margin of 20.2%. Labor has promised $10m to upgrade William Ruthven secondary college and will remove two dangerous level crossings. There are no obvious Coalition promises for Preston. | Then there are the good people of Preston, a northern suburbs seat held by Labor since 1945. It is one of the safest seats in the state on a margin of 20.2%. Labor has promised $10m to upgrade William Ruthven secondary college and will remove two dangerous level crossings. There are no obvious Coalition promises for Preston. |
| There are 88 seats in Victoria’s lower house. Between 10 and 12 are showered with showered with visits and promises. The rest grind their teeth. | There are 88 seats in Victoria’s lower house. Between 10 and 12 are showered with showered with visits and promises. The rest grind their teeth. |
| We’re not talking about many things that matter | We’re not talking about many things that matter |
| There is a lot of “me too-ism” in state politics, and few ideas. Both major parties are promising billions on transport, health and education in particular. | There is a lot of “me too-ism” in state politics, and few ideas. Both major parties are promising billions on transport, health and education in particular. |
| Both are promising hospital upgrades all over the state, often to the same hospitals. Both are promising new schools, and hundreds of millions in maintenance of schools – each are promising exactly $120m for upgrades to needy Catholic and independent schools. | Both are promising hospital upgrades all over the state, often to the same hospitals. Both are promising new schools, and hundreds of millions in maintenance of schools – each are promising exactly $120m for upgrades to needy Catholic and independent schools. |
| There are differences around the margins – Labor pledges funds to provide breakfast for disadvantaged students; the Coalition is touting a plan to provide 3D printers to every secondary school. But there is a lot of common ground. | There are differences around the margins – Labor pledges funds to provide breakfast for disadvantaged students; the Coalition is touting a plan to provide 3D printers to every secondary school. But there is a lot of common ground. |
| There is no common ground on East West Link, of course, and that is a debate that does have philosophical meat to it as well as big dollar figures attached. | There is no common ground on East West Link, of course, and that is a debate that does have philosophical meat to it as well as big dollar figures attached. |
| But because the contest is narrow, there are many issues that barely get a hearing. It is almost as though the parties have got together on it, but that would be too cynical. | But because the contest is narrow, there are many issues that barely get a hearing. It is almost as though the parties have got together on it, but that would be too cynical. |
| Neither major party wants to talk about the environment. The Coalition has no official policy; Labor quietly released theirs this week without holding a media conference. | Neither major party wants to talk about the environment. The Coalition has no official policy; Labor quietly released theirs this week without holding a media conference. |
| Neither party wants to talk about the state’s reliance on brown coal, and neither wants to discuss whether the state will allow fracking. Both sides have put off that decision until after the election, a tactic that has largely worked to shut the issue down. Climate change has barely been mentioned. | Neither party wants to talk about the state’s reliance on brown coal, and neither wants to discuss whether the state will allow fracking. Both sides have put off that decision until after the election, a tactic that has largely worked to shut the issue down. Climate change has barely been mentioned. |
| A swath of other issues is ignored when the agenda becomes so narrow - homelessness and affordable housing among them. Neither party wants to change the rules on political donations in Victoria, considered the most lax in the country. To be fair, Labor has a more extensive policy on improving the state’s anti-corruption body and improving the running of parliament. | |
| The narrower the debate becomes, the more people turn off. Is that a problem? The parties don’t seem to think so. | The narrower the debate becomes, the more people turn off. Is that a problem? The parties don’t seem to think so. |
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