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Headline numbers: Help with coping with big figures | Headline numbers: Help with coping with big figures |
(7 days later) | |
On Wednesday we heard that the National Health Service (NHS) in England had a £630m deficit half way through the 2014-15 financial year. | On Wednesday we heard that the National Health Service (NHS) in England had a £630m deficit half way through the 2014-15 financial year. |
Is that a lot? It sounds like a lot. | Is that a lot? It sounds like a lot. |
On the other hand, it may just be a big pile of money on top of an even bigger pile of money. | On the other hand, it may just be a big pile of money on top of an even bigger pile of money. |
The "pile of money" reference comes from an excellent video on Youtube, explaining the size of the US budget deficit by representing it with 8,880 pennies on a table in a living room (that the filmmaker hadn't bothered to tidy first, but that's splitting hairs). | The "pile of money" reference comes from an excellent video on Youtube, explaining the size of the US budget deficit by representing it with 8,880 pennies on a table in a living room (that the filmmaker hadn't bothered to tidy first, but that's splitting hairs). |
Anyway, his point is that we struggle to cope with big numbers, and this week's story was another example. | Anyway, his point is that we struggle to cope with big numbers, and this week's story was another example. |
The NHS in England has a budget for this year of about £113bn, so £630m is just over half a per cent. | The NHS in England has a budget for this year of about £113bn, so £630m is just over half a per cent. |
But I think we can help more with this by taking a lesson from physicists. They had a problem with expressing the huge distances between stars and galaxies, so they invented light years. A light year is the distance light travels in a year, which is about 5.9 trillion miles or 9.5 trillion kilometres. | But I think we can help more with this by taking a lesson from physicists. They had a problem with expressing the huge distances between stars and galaxies, so they invented light years. A light year is the distance light travels in a year, which is about 5.9 trillion miles or 9.5 trillion kilometres. |
Perhaps we should use an NHS year as a measure of large sums of money. One NHS year is about £113bn, so the deficit so far this year could be expressed as a little over two NHS days. | Perhaps we should use an NHS year as a measure of large sums of money. One NHS year is about £113bn, so the deficit so far this year could be expressed as a little over two NHS days. |
It may be argued that it is a problem that NHS spending, unlike the speed of light, is not constant, but in spending terms that is a good thing because it allows for inflation to be taken into account. | It may be argued that it is a problem that NHS spending, unlike the speed of light, is not constant, but in spending terms that is a good thing because it allows for inflation to be taken into account. |
And the NHS year is not just useful for health spending - it could help people to understand any big sums of money. | |
For example, the National Audit Office report about the delays to universal credit warned of a £2.8bn bill to cover staffing costs if the credit is rolled out without switching to the new IT system. That could be expressed as about nine NHS days. | For example, the National Audit Office report about the delays to universal credit warned of a £2.8bn bill to cover staffing costs if the credit is rolled out without switching to the new IT system. That could be expressed as about nine NHS days. |
Similarly, Labour's threat to cut tax breaks for independent schools threatens about £147m per year in current savings for the schools, which is about half an NHS day. | Similarly, Labour's threat to cut tax breaks for independent schools threatens about £147m per year in current savings for the schools, which is about half an NHS day. |
I think the NHS day is just what is needed to put the big numbers into context for the forthcoming election campaign. Now I just have to convince my colleagues. | I think the NHS day is just what is needed to put the big numbers into context for the forthcoming election campaign. Now I just have to convince my colleagues. |
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