Japan's election won't just be a referendum on Abenomics
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Version 0 of 1. Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe announced Tuesday that he was dissolving parliament on 21 November to hold a snap election in December. The move followed the PM’s announcement at the same press conference to delay until April 2017 - 18 months later than planned - a rise in the country’s consumption tax, from 8% to 10%. All this comes after official data released on Monday revealed that Japan had re-entered recession for the fourth time since 2008. Chart: Japan's GDP unexpectedly shrinks again due to consumption tax hike in April. Second hike likely on hold now - pic.twitter.com/DVRPB9VK8X Early elections aren’t a novelty in Japan. Only four parliaments out of 24 since 1949 have lasted a four-year term. While Abe’s popularity has dipped over the past few months, the PM still remains relatively popular. His party, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) is miles ahead of main opposition party the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ). In 2012’s election, the LDP, which has governed Japan for all but three years since 1955, won 294 seats. The DPJ took 54. Together with Komeito (KNP), which won 31 seats, Abe’s coalition holds a two-thirds majority in Japan’s lower house. #Abe will dissolve Lower House on Friday ahead of Dec. election. Will he maintain his coalition’s 2/3 super-majority? pic.twitter.com/yehmpsMyVa In July of last year, the Abe-led alliance also won control of the upper house. While there aren’t many doubts that PM Abe will win December’s election (the main opposition parties don’t even have enough candidates to compete in all electoral districts), the only questions remain on the size and shape of victory, and whether his coalition can retain such a sizeable majority in the 480 seat Shugiin. In principle, the two-thirds majority figure matters as it is the required threshold to change the constitution. One such constitutional debate has been on the reform of article 9, which states: “Aspiring sincerely to an international peace based on justice and order, the Japanese people forever renounce war as a sovereign right of the nation and the threat or use of force as means of settling international disputes. “In order to accomplish the aim of the preceding paragraph, land, sea, and air forces, as well as other war potential, will never be maintained. The right of belligerency of the state will not be recognised.” In the past Abe had also indicated he was eager to change article 96, which stipulates that any modification of the constitution requires a two-thirds majority in both houses of the Diet, plus the consent of a majority in a referendum. Article 9 is especially controversial, as it was seen as a barrier to Japan exercising its right to collective self-defence. The issue was particularly contentious with Komeito, which is opposed to changing the constitution. Then in July the government announced a reinterpretation of article 9 to encompass the right to collective self-defence. The reading of the constitution would, for example, allow Japan to come to the aid of allies under attack without the need to reword the country’s fundamental document. Since then, Abe’s cabinet has also passed an increase in defence spending, making up for a decade of decline. To some extent, because of this reinterpretation, on the surface of things a two-thirds majority is less of an ideal yardstick with which to measure December’s election results. Yet, the composition of a majority and the size of Abe’s mandate will matter greatly. Last Sunday an opponent of a US base relocation plan won the Okinawa governor’s election by a landslide. The result was a blow to the PM. Abe supported the incumbent candidate and the relocation plans. Defence related arguments remain divisive in Japan, and questions over the right to collective self-defence is still a highly politicised topic. July’s announcement led to several protests, and even self-immolations. With tensions with China high, the public broadly supports Abe’s more assertive foreign policy, but on the specifics of collective self-defence polls show that public opinion is split on the issue (£). Similar fractures are present in the debate on restarting Japan’s nuclear power generation plants - a move Abe has strongly advocated - and all of which were shut down after the Fukushima disaster in 2011. All of these issues will now be brought forward. December’s election will be as much a referendum on Abenomics as it will be a vote on constitutional issues and the balance of power, between hawks and doves, within government - and not just on the economic front. |