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| Prime Minister Shinzo Abe Calls for Early Elections in Japan | Prime Minister Shinzo Abe Calls for Early Elections in Japan |
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| IWAKUNI, Japan — With his once-vaunted plan for reviving Japan’s economy now faltering, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe declared on Tuesday that he would dissolve Parliament and hold national elections next month, saying he wants a new mandate from voters. | IWAKUNI, Japan — With his once-vaunted plan for reviving Japan’s economy now faltering, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe declared on Tuesday that he would dissolve Parliament and hold national elections next month, saying he wants a new mandate from voters. |
| In a broadcast on live national television, Mr. Abe explained the move by saying he wanted to ask voters to approve his decision to postpone a scheduled increase in the national sales tax, which he warned could further hurt growth. But he also framed it as a broader referendum on his economic measures, known as Abenomics. | In a broadcast on live national television, Mr. Abe explained the move by saying he wanted to ask voters to approve his decision to postpone a scheduled increase in the national sales tax, which he warned could further hurt growth. But he also framed it as a broader referendum on his economic measures, known as Abenomics. |
| “There are divided opinions about the economic policies that we are pursuing. There is also resistance,” Mr. Abe said. “To continue advancing that growth strategy with the support of the people, we need to listen to the voice of people.” | “There are divided opinions about the economic policies that we are pursuing. There is also resistance,” Mr. Abe said. “To continue advancing that growth strategy with the support of the people, we need to listen to the voice of people.” |
| Political analysts said the decision to call an election was an admission by Mr. Abe that his widely watched economic program, intended to pull Japan out of its two-decade slump, was losing steam. That program, a mix of increased government spending and an aggressive pumping of cash into the economy by the central bank, lifted the stock market and won praise as a potential model for other developed economies. In Washington last year, Mr. Abe proudly proclaimed that Japan was back on solid footing. | Political analysts said the decision to call an election was an admission by Mr. Abe that his widely watched economic program, intended to pull Japan out of its two-decade slump, was losing steam. That program, a mix of increased government spending and an aggressive pumping of cash into the economy by the central bank, lifted the stock market and won praise as a potential model for other developed economies. In Washington last year, Mr. Abe proudly proclaimed that Japan was back on solid footing. |
| Now it appears he may have spoken too soon. Economists say growth in the Japanese economy, the world’s third-largest, after the United States and China, has faltered because of a failure to follow up with painful changes and because of the ill-timed increase in the national sales tax. The final blow came on Monday, when official figures showed that Japan had fallen into recession in the third quarter. | Now it appears he may have spoken too soon. Economists say growth in the Japanese economy, the world’s third-largest, after the United States and China, has faltered because of a failure to follow up with painful changes and because of the ill-timed increase in the national sales tax. The final blow came on Monday, when official figures showed that Japan had fallen into recession in the third quarter. |
| Those figures, and growing criticism from opposition parties saying that his policies were failing, prompted him to call an election, Mr. Abe said. | Those figures, and growing criticism from opposition parties saying that his policies were failing, prompted him to call an election, Mr. Abe said. |
| “There is criticism that Abenomics is a failure,” Mr. Abe said. “So what should we do? Unfortunately, I have yet to hear one concrete idea.” | “There is criticism that Abenomics is a failure,” Mr. Abe said. “So what should we do? Unfortunately, I have yet to hear one concrete idea.” |
| Calling elections could also be a bid to renew support for a government that has suffered from a growing number of financing and other scandals. While he has been able to overcome major political damage so far, the problems are similar to those that Mr. Abe faced during his first term as prime minister. Seven years ago, those scandals eventually toppled his government. | Calling elections could also be a bid to renew support for a government that has suffered from a growing number of financing and other scandals. While he has been able to overcome major political damage so far, the problems are similar to those that Mr. Abe faced during his first term as prime minister. Seven years ago, those scandals eventually toppled his government. |
| Analysts said a prolonged economic slowdown could spell the end of the so-called Abe phenomenon, in which the prime minister enjoyed high approval ratings and appeared destined to stay in office for several years, a rarity in a nation with a long series of leaders with short political life spans. They said the basis of his popularity was his success in lifting some of Japan’s economic gloom and in restoring confidence. | Analysts said a prolonged economic slowdown could spell the end of the so-called Abe phenomenon, in which the prime minister enjoyed high approval ratings and appeared destined to stay in office for several years, a rarity in a nation with a long series of leaders with short political life spans. They said the basis of his popularity was his success in lifting some of Japan’s economic gloom and in restoring confidence. |
| “The size of the economy’s decline was a big shock to Abe and the Liberal Democratic Party,” said Katsuyuki Yakushiji, a professor of politics at Toyo University in Tokyo. “It makes Abenomics look like a failure. Abe suddenly looks desperate to stay in power.” | “The size of the economy’s decline was a big shock to Abe and the Liberal Democratic Party,” said Katsuyuki Yakushiji, a professor of politics at Toyo University in Tokyo. “It makes Abenomics look like a failure. Abe suddenly looks desperate to stay in power.” |
| Analysts also said the recent signs that Abenomics was fizzling could hamper, or even block, Mr. Abe’s attempts to implement less popular parts of his agenda, such as expanding the role of Japan’s military, or restarting its shuttered nuclear industry. | Analysts also said the recent signs that Abenomics was fizzling could hamper, or even block, Mr. Abe’s attempts to implement less popular parts of his agenda, such as expanding the role of Japan’s military, or restarting its shuttered nuclear industry. |
| Perhaps most important, Mr. Abe is seeking a mandate on an issue close to voters’ pocketbooks: whether to postpone a second scheduled increase of the national sales tax, which by law is to take place next year. | Perhaps most important, Mr. Abe is seeking a mandate on an issue close to voters’ pocketbooks: whether to postpone a second scheduled increase of the national sales tax, which by law is to take place next year. |
| On Tuesday, Mr. Abe said he wanted to submit the issue to voters because it would amount to a reversal of a position by his Liberal Democratic Party, which supported the tax increase bill when it passed two years ago. Such a delay would undoubtedly prove popular among voters, especially after the first increase of the sales tax this year was widely blamed for contributing to the current recession. | On Tuesday, Mr. Abe said he wanted to submit the issue to voters because it would amount to a reversal of a position by his Liberal Democratic Party, which supported the tax increase bill when it passed two years ago. Such a delay would undoubtedly prove popular among voters, especially after the first increase of the sales tax this year was widely blamed for contributing to the current recession. |
| However, many political experts also said they detected a deep pessimism under Mr. Abe’s decision. By calling an election, they said, Mr. Abe was essentially admitting that he did not see the economy regaining its energy anytime soon. Such a negative assessment of the country’s economic future might be pushing him to hold the election now, before voters become even more unhappy, they said. | However, many political experts also said they detected a deep pessimism under Mr. Abe’s decision. By calling an election, they said, Mr. Abe was essentially admitting that he did not see the economy regaining its energy anytime soon. Such a negative assessment of the country’s economic future might be pushing him to hold the election now, before voters become even more unhappy, they said. |
| Mr. Abe’s approval ratings have begun to fall recently, with percentages in the low 40s in recent opinion surveys. | Mr. Abe’s approval ratings have begun to fall recently, with percentages in the low 40s in recent opinion surveys. |
| “There is only one reason to call an election now, and that is the fear that things will be only worse if he waits,” said Gerald L. Curtis, a specialist on Japanese politics at Columbia University. “The expectation of political stability and an Abe administration unchallenged for six years, that so many thought just two weeks ago was the most likely scenario, is now history. Suddenly, we have an economy in recession, a government in political trouble and a very cloudy future.” | “There is only one reason to call an election now, and that is the fear that things will be only worse if he waits,” said Gerald L. Curtis, a specialist on Japanese politics at Columbia University. “The expectation of political stability and an Abe administration unchallenged for six years, that so many thought just two weeks ago was the most likely scenario, is now history. Suddenly, we have an economy in recession, a government in political trouble and a very cloudy future.” |
| With Mr. Abe facing so many challenges, an election might seem risky. However, analysts said the prime minister was betting that his party still had one thing going for it: It remains more appealing to voters than the main opposition Democratic Party, which has fallen into disarray since its election defeat two years ago. | With Mr. Abe facing so many challenges, an election might seem risky. However, analysts said the prime minister was betting that his party still had one thing going for it: It remains more appealing to voters than the main opposition Democratic Party, which has fallen into disarray since its election defeat two years ago. |
| In fact, experts said, one reason to call an election is to prevent the Democrats and other opposition parties from having enough time to enlist candidates and mount a serious challenge. With the vote only a month away, the Democrats acknowledge they have candidates to compete in only about 134 of Japan’s 295 electoral districts. | In fact, experts said, one reason to call an election is to prevent the Democrats and other opposition parties from having enough time to enlist candidates and mount a serious challenge. With the vote only a month away, the Democrats acknowledge they have candidates to compete in only about 134 of Japan’s 295 electoral districts. |
| The next-largest opposition party, the Japan Innovation Party, run by the mayor of Osaka, Toru Hashimoto, has said it can field fewer than 75 candidates. | |
| “The opposition has been caught with its pants down,” Mr. Curtis said. “Waiting another year to call the election only gives the opposition more time to get better organized.” | “The opposition has been caught with its pants down,” Mr. Curtis said. “Waiting another year to call the election only gives the opposition more time to get better organized.” |