We’re better together with Europe, so we must learn from the Scotland campaign
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Version 0 of 1. It’s not easy to win a referendum. I know. You need to be absolutely clear about not just the question but also who and what you are fighting against. As we drift – and drifting is what we are doing – towards another referendum, this time on Europe, there is a real risk the fight will be lost before it begins. John Major warned last week that Britain was in danger of stumbling into a divorce from the European Union, citing immigration concerns in particular. And the confusion over the European arrest warrant vote, and the heated arguments over the £1.7bn bill, showed how jittery the government is over just about anything affecting the EU. Labour is right to say an in-out referendum should only be held when there is a significant constitutional change proposed within Europe. But the daily drumbeat of negative claims about the EU is creating a momentum towards exit that may become unstoppable. Regardless of whether a referendum actually happens, those who support Britain’s continued membership must start now to recover the ground lost so far. On one level the question is easy. Do we remain a member of the EU or do we leave? But it is all too clear to see voters being persuaded to answer a different question. Do we want to keep a bad status quo? Or do we want something much better, no matter how unspecificied or unattainable that may be? In the Scottish referendum there were many for whom that was precisely the question they were answering. And they did not like the status quo. The Scottish referendum was fought against a background of six years of austerity. Many people have felt their living standards slip. Whereas in the past people expected to do better than their parents, and for their children to do better still, it is no longer the case. In that scenario it is all too easy for a populist movement to blame someone else and promise that ridding ourselves of the other will make it better. To that extent, Ukip and the SNP are two sides of the same coin. It’s worth remembering how we got here. For years, membership of the EU was low on voters’ concerns. The British will never love Europe. For most of us, membership is a practical thing. In that respect we are different from most other members who chose to join – to escape their history, two world wars, dictatorships, or chronic economic and political instability. My guess is that most voters would say we are better off in than out. But this is not the case within the Conservatives. They are as split now on Europe as they were when Major was prime minister. Just as the Eurosceptics paralysed then destroyed his government, so they are at it again under David Cameron. His promise of a referendum, made last year, was not in response to voter demands. Rather it was in a desperate attempt to appease half of his party. It has not worked, nor will it. Neither will it head off an apparent Ukip advance. You can never offer enough concessions to people whose philosophy is entirely based on blaming the Other for all our woes. A referendum held in 2017 could happen in very difficult conditions. Under present plans, public spending is heading for levels not seen since 1948. Growth is far from firmly established. The eurozone and therefore much of Europe is going backwards. Hope – and we all need it – may well be in short supply. So if this is not to be a vote on the status quo, what do we need to do? First, there is a powerful case to be made for us continuing as an EU member, which needs to be made again with vigour. There is equally a strong case for reform, and not only to build a genuine single market or to deal with the problem arising from the right to claim benefits – for which a helpful judgment was made last week by the European court of justice. If the eurozone continues its march towards increasing economic and political union, its relationship with other member states must be re-examined. We need to build alliances for reform. Far from doing that, the government is making life more difficult by the day. If potential allies believe we are going to leave anyway, why should they lift a finger to help us? An apparent indifference to whether we go or stay is hugely damaging. A year ago Cameron said that with reform he would lead the campaign to remain within the EU. Today he is reluctant to say that. A lack of leadership on this issue simply adds to the current political disillusionment and opens the doors to populists and scaremongers. We need reform and should make a virtue of that. We, not the sceptics, need to make the case for change. The uncertainty is already damaging our economy. Just as happened in Scotland, investors are considering putting off crucial decisions on investing in the UK. And, as we saw there, once people begin to ask questions about future stability it becomes too easy to postpone or even cancel future plans. We need to make the case for jobs and prosperity. As in the Scottish referendum we must argue that we can get the change we need without tearing ourselves apart in separation. We remain better together. In Scotland it took a long time for the quiet majority to feel confident enough to speak out. It was almost left too late. We cannot repeat that mistake again. Three years ago many people thought it was inevitable that Scotland would leave the UK. Too many are beginning to think the same of our membership of the EU. That has to change and to change now. |