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| Scandal-hit Japan PM preparing for snap election | Scandal-hit Japan PM preparing for snap election |
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| Japan’s prime minister is poised to call an early election to boost support for his scandal-hit government before an unpopular tax increase. | Japan’s prime minister is poised to call an early election to boost support for his scandal-hit government before an unpopular tax increase. |
| Shinzo Abe, elected almost two years ago, had insisted he was not considering an election, but a senior official in his ruling Liberal Democratic party (LDP) claimed on Thursday that the prime minister had opted for a snap poll. | Shinzo Abe, elected almost two years ago, had insisted he was not considering an election, but a senior official in his ruling Liberal Democratic party (LDP) claimed on Thursday that the prime minister had opted for a snap poll. |
| “It looks like [Abe] has finally made up his mind, and it’s fair to believe that he has decided to go to the country,” Tadamori Oshima, a former LDP deputy chief, was quoted by the Jiji news agency as saying. The Nikkei business newspaper quoted Abe as telling party officials that a quick election – possibly on 14 December – “is among my options”. | “It looks like [Abe] has finally made up his mind, and it’s fair to believe that he has decided to go to the country,” Tadamori Oshima, a former LDP deputy chief, was quoted by the Jiji news agency as saying. The Nikkei business newspaper quoted Abe as telling party officials that a quick election – possibly on 14 December – “is among my options”. |
| The prime minister risks a dramatic slide in his public approval rating if he proceeds with a planned rise in the consumption (sales) tax from 8% to 10% in the autumn. Recent polls show that more than 70% of voters oppose the measure. | The prime minister risks a dramatic slide in his public approval rating if he proceeds with a planned rise in the consumption (sales) tax from 8% to 10% in the autumn. Recent polls show that more than 70% of voters oppose the measure. |
| Abe, who supported the tax increase while in opposition, has said the levy is unavoidable if Japan is to reduce its huge public debt and pay for spiralling health and welfare costs. | Abe, who supported the tax increase while in opposition, has said the levy is unavoidable if Japan is to reduce its huge public debt and pay for spiralling health and welfare costs. |
| There are concerns, however, that a second increase in 18 months could endanger his growth-led economic recovery programme. An increase in the same tax from 5% to 8% in April prompted the sharpest fall in quarterly growth since the global economic crisis. | There are concerns, however, that a second increase in 18 months could endanger his growth-led economic recovery programme. An increase in the same tax from 5% to 8% in April prompted the sharpest fall in quarterly growth since the global economic crisis. |
| Most observers believe that Abe, whose cabinet has been rocked by allegations of financial impropriety and conflicts of interest, will delay the tax increase, possibly until April 2017. His support ratings recently dipped below 50% for the first time since he took office, after funding and campaign scandals forced two of his ministers to resign on the same day. | Most observers believe that Abe, whose cabinet has been rocked by allegations of financial impropriety and conflicts of interest, will delay the tax increase, possibly until April 2017. His support ratings recently dipped below 50% for the first time since he took office, after funding and campaign scandals forced two of his ministers to resign on the same day. |
| With the main opposition party in disarray since its heavy defeat in December 2012, the LDP is highly unlikely to lose the election but could relinquish the two-thirds majority it commands with its junior coalition partner, Komeito. | With the main opposition party in disarray since its heavy defeat in December 2012, the LDP is highly unlikely to lose the election but could relinquish the two-thirds majority it commands with its junior coalition partner, Komeito. |
| Tax is only one of several policy areas that will test Abe in the coming year. He is likely to approve the restart of two nuclear reactors in the south-west of the country, even though most Japanese oppose a return to nuclear power. He is also expected to introduce legislation that would enable Japanese troops to fight alongside overseas officers for the first time since the second world war. | |
| Abe was forced to reinterpret Japan’s pacifist constitution – which limits the country’s forces to a purely defensive role – after polls showed that an outright revision was unpopular with voters. | Abe was forced to reinterpret Japan’s pacifist constitution – which limits the country’s forces to a purely defensive role – after polls showed that an outright revision was unpopular with voters. |
| Japan is not required to go to the polls until 2016, but some analysts believe that winning an early election would enable Abe to silence those inside his party who want the tax increase to proceed on schedule, and to claim a popular mandate for his foreign and economic policies. | Japan is not required to go to the polls until 2016, but some analysts believe that winning an early election would enable Abe to silence those inside his party who want the tax increase to proceed on schedule, and to claim a popular mandate for his foreign and economic policies. |