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Questions Over China’s Climate Change Plan China’s Climate Change Plan Raises Questions
(about 1 hour later)
BEIJING — A pledge on Wednesday from President Xi Jinping of China to help fight climate change is expected to send a strong signal, since meeting global emissions-reduction goals will require sustained efforts from Beijing in curbing the country’s addiction to coal and greatly bolstering sources of renewable energy, analysts and policy advisers say. BEIJING — When the presidents of China and the United States pledged on Wednesday to reduce or limit carbon dioxide emissions, analysts and policy advisers said, the two leaders sent an important signal: that the world’s largest economies were willing to work together on climate change.
At the same time, experts say, there are many questions surrounding the plan, announced in Beijing alongside President Obama: Does it go far enough in helping check climate change, and how will China meet its stated targets? “This is a very serious international commitment between the two heavy hitters,” said Li Shuo, who researches climate and coal policy for Greenpeace East Asia.
Mr. Xi said China planned to have carbon dioxide emissions peak “around 2030” and to increase the share of renewable energy to 20 percent by that year. Still, many questions surround China’s plans, which President Xi Jinping announced in Beijing alongside President Obama after months of negotiations. In essence, experts asked, do the pledges go far enough, and how will China achieve them?
Although those goals — and a corresponding pledge from Mr. Obama that the United States would emit 26 percent to 28 percent less carbon dioxide in 2025 than it did in 2005 — still need to be put into a formal agreement, the fact that America and China were able to announce solid numbers after months of negotiations sends a message that the world’s top two emitters of greenhouse gases are willing to work together on the issue, the experts said. Mr. Xi said China would brake the rapid rise in its carbon dioxide emissions, so that they peak “around 2030” and then remain steady or begin to decline. And by then, he promised, 20 percent of China’s energy will be renewable. Analysts said that achieving those goals would require sustained efforts by Beijing to curb the country’s addiction to coal and greatly increase its commitment to energy sources that do not depend on fossil fuels.
But China could be even more ambitious in its promises, they said. Beijing should try to reach the emissions peak sooner and announce more hard numbers — such as a coal consumption peak by 2020 — in order to guarantee a road map for reaching the emissions peak, several said. Many scientists have said that 2030 may be too long to wait for China’s greenhouse gas emissions to stop growing, if the world is to keep the average global temperature from rising more than 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit (2 degrees Celsius) above the preindustrial average. That goal was adopted by governments from around the world at talks in Copenhagen in 2009.
“This is a very serious international commitment between the two heavy hitters,” said Li Shuo, who researches climate and coal policy for Greenpeace East Asia. “Once it’s there, this should be the floor on which they work rather than a ceiling.” Almost no country has done enough yet to reach that goal, but because of its size and industrial development, China is crucial to any effort to even come close. (So is the United States, which promised on Wednesday to emit 26 percent to 28 percent less carbon dioxide in 2025 than it did in 2005.)
“Based on China’s current coal consumption numbers, they can do much more,” he added. Some experts said that China should try to halt the growth of its emissions much sooner than it has pledged, by 2025 rather than 2030.
People involved in the internal Chinese debates over pollution control and climate change say the seeds of this week’s announcement are found in Beijing’s efforts to address public fury over rising levels of toxic smog, which in the past two years have resulted in some of the worst air pollution readings in the world. Chinese leaders turned their attention to cutting the country’s reliance on coal, a main pillar of the economy but also a major source of pollution. “Based on China’s current coal consumption numbers, they can do much more,” Mr. Li said on Wednesday. He said of the pledges made on Wednesday that “this should be the floor on which they work, rather than a ceiling.”
That led to officials’ discussing how weaning industries from coal to clean the air could also allow China to make global commitments in the battle against climate change, the climate insiders said, with this week’s pledges being the most notable result. People involved in the internal Chinese debates said the seeds of Mr. Xi’s announcement could be found in public anger over rising levels of toxic smog in China. Over the past two years, Chinese cities have recorded some of the worst air pollution readings in the world.
But a projected emissions peak in 2030 is not as soon as many scientists have said would be needed to keep alive a goal, agreed to by governments at talks in Copenhagen in 2009, of trying to keep greenhouse gas concentrations below levels likely to cause the average global temperature to rise 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit (2 degrees Celsius) above the preindustrial average. To address the problem, Chinese leaders have turned their attention to cutting back the country’s reliance on coal, a main pillar of the economy but also a major source of pollution. That led to discussions about how weaning Chinese industries off coal would not just clean the air, but would also permit China to make global commitments in the battle against climate change, the insiders said.
Virtually no country has done enough to help achieve that goal, but China, the biggest emitter, is crucial to any attempt to stay close to that commitment. Last month, the departing European Union climate commissioner, Connie Hedegaard, said that halting the growth in Chinese carbon dioxide emissions much sooner than 2030 would “be a very important gift from China to the whole world,” according to a report by Agence France-Presse.
Last month, the departing European Union climate commissioner, Connie Hedegaard, said that a peaking year of 2030 in China would be too late to avert global environmental crises, and that a much earlier stated year would “be a very important gift from China to the whole world,” according to a report by Agence France-Presse. Policy makers and climate experts inside and outside China face the task of assessing the trajectory that China’s emissions are on now, and whether China must do more to change course.
Now, policy makers and climate experts inside and outside China will have to decide whether the government here should be doing even more to cut emissions even earlier, and to help determine how high China’s emissions should rise. Internally, Chinese scientists and officials have been crunching numbers to try to pinpoint when carbon emissions will peak and how high that peak will be, given current economic growth projections and energy policies, but estimates have varied. Foreign scientists and policy makers are also trying to judge whether 2030 represents a business-as-usual scenario or a genuine campaign by the Chinese government to fight climate change. Internally, Chinese scientists and officials have been crunching data to try to pinpoint when carbon emissions will peak and how high that peak will be, given current economic growth projections and energy policies, but their estimates have varied. Foreign scientists and policy makers are also trying to judge whether Mr. Xi’s 2030 pledge represents a genuine campaign by the Chinese government to fight climate change, or just a business-as-usual date when emissions would probably have leveled off anyway.
A study released in 2011 by Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory suggests it is not a big change from business as usual. The study said that economic trends in China and government policies had put the nation on course to reach a carbon dioxide emissions plateau or peak between 2030 and 2035, with those emissions expected to be 12 billion metric tons in 2033. If China were to take more aggressive measures, the study said, the country would hit the peak earlier and emit less carbon dioxide, with 9.7 billion metric tons projected for 2027. A 2011 study by the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory suggests that it is not far from business as usual. Economic trends and government policies in China, the study said, had already put the nation on course to reach a peak sometime between 2030 and 2035, with an annual output of 12 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide in 2033. More aggressive measures, it said, might limit the peak to about 9.7 billion metric tons and advance the date to about 2027.
However, a study released last month by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology said that if China were to take aggressive measures, carbon emissions would peak between 2025 and 2035, at 10 billion metric tons. The measures would include higher carbon and coal taxes. A study released last month by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology had somewhat different conclusions, with Chinese emissions peaking at 10 billion metric tons sometime between 2025 and 2035 if aggressive measures like higher carbon and coal taxes are imposed.
Wang Tao, an expert on climate and energy policy at the Carnegie-Tsinghua Center for Global Policy in Beijing, said meeting the 2030 pledge “would still demand quite a lot of change from China in terms of energy structure and pushing for nonfossil-fuel renewables to reduce the reliance on coal,” he said. Wang Tao, an expert on climate and energy policy at the Carnegie-Tsinghua Center for Global Policy in Beijing, said that meeting President Xi’s 2030 pledge “would still demand quite a lot of change from China, in terms of energy structure and pushing for nonfossil-fuel renewables to reduce the reliance on coal.”
He called the 2030 goal a “reasonable target,” but said “certainly the government could do more than that and should be encouraged to.” He called the 2030 goal a “reasonable target,” but he added, “Certainly the government could do more than that, and should be encouraged to.”
In recent months, there has been a growing consensus among experts inside China that the 2030 date is achievable and that 2025 would represent a more aggressive goal, said Wang Yi, a professor at the Chinese Academy of Sciences in Beijing. But there are still differing opinions. As recently as last week, researchers from the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and the China Meteorological Administration issued a report that said China’s emissions were likely to peak around 2035 if there were “stringent environmental planning.” Wang Yi, a professor at the Chinese Academy of Sciences in Beijing, said that a consensus had grown recently among experts in China that the 2030 date was achievable, and that 2025 would be a more ambitious goal. But as recently as last week, researchers from the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and the China Meteorological Administration issued a report saying that even with “stringent environmental planning,” the country’s emissions were not likely to peak until 2035.
As for trying to ensure that 20 percent of the country’s energy comes from “clean energy” sources by 2030, Chinese officials have in recent years been working hard to encourage alternatives to coal, from hydroelectric to nuclear to wind and solar. As for renewable energy, Chinese officials have been trying in recent years to encourage development of alternatives to coal, including hydroelectric power, wind and solar energy and nuclear power.
Mr. Li, the Greenpeace researcher, said the announcement further formalized China’s ambitious plans in this area — the country will have to add 800 to 1,000 gigawatts of power generation capacity from renewable energy sources in the next 15 years to meet the goal, he said, adding that is an astonishing number given that China now has a capacity of 1,250 gigawatts, mostly from burning coal. Among other things, China would need to improve its power grid and power storage technology. Mr. Li, the Greenpeace researcher, said Mr. Xi’s 20-percent goal was ambitious. He said the country would need to add 800 to 1,000 gigawatts of power generation capacity from renewable sources over the next 15 years to meet the goal — a remarkable figure, given that the country now has a total of just 1,250 gigawatts of capacity from all sources, most of it coal-fueled.
At the end of 2013, 9.8 percent of China’s energy came from sources not linked to fossil fuels, and the government had made plans to reach 15 percent by 2020. At the end of 2013, China got 9.8 percent of its energy from sources not linked to fossil fuels, and the government intends to reach 15 percent by 2020.
“Twenty percent does sound fairly robust,” said Jake Schmidt, director of the international program at the Natural Resources Defense Council, an advocacy group in New York. “You’re talking about 20 percent of a huge economy being based on non-carbon-dioxide emissions sources. That’s significant.” “Twenty percent does sound fairly robust,” said Jake Schmidt, director of the international program at the Natural Resources Defense Council, an advocacy group in New York. “You’re talking about 20 percent of a huge economy being based on noncarbon-dioxide-emissions sources. That’s significant.”
The announcement on Wednesday did not have the details of the projected makeup of renewable energy sources by 2030.