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| Sarkozy Tries Quick Comeback, but France May Not Go Along | Sarkozy Tries Quick Comeback, but France May Not Go Along |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| ST.-CYR-SUR-LOIRE, France — On a recent evening, Nicolas Sarkozy, who since being voted out of office more than two years ago has done nothing to temper his reputation as the bad boy of French politics, was on stage in a gymnasium trying to generate enthusiasm for his latest campaign. | ST.-CYR-SUR-LOIRE, France — On a recent evening, Nicolas Sarkozy, who since being voted out of office more than two years ago has done nothing to temper his reputation as the bad boy of French politics, was on stage in a gymnasium trying to generate enthusiasm for his latest campaign. |
| Mr. Sarkozy, France’s president from 2007 to 2012, talked of everything from the state of the economy to the respect due to teachers, before ending with a swipe at the pundits lining up these days to say that his comeback is already in trouble. | Mr. Sarkozy, France’s president from 2007 to 2012, talked of everything from the state of the economy to the respect due to teachers, before ending with a swipe at the pundits lining up these days to say that his comeback is already in trouble. |
| “Good thing that it’s going so badly,” Mr. Sarkozy said, looking over the filled seats pressed up against the stage in this city in central France. “What kind of a venue would I have needed if things were going well?” | “Good thing that it’s going so badly,” Mr. Sarkozy said, looking over the filled seats pressed up against the stage in this city in central France. “What kind of a venue would I have needed if things were going well?” |
| Perhaps he could not see that, behind the phalanx of television cameras set up on a midcourt platform, the gym was rather empty. | Perhaps he could not see that, behind the phalanx of television cameras set up on a midcourt platform, the gym was rather empty. |
| Mr. Sarkozy, tanned and dapper, has been holding American-style town hall meetings around the country. His stated goal is the presidency of his center-right party, the Union for a Popular Movement, or U.M.P., for its initials in French. | Mr. Sarkozy, tanned and dapper, has been holding American-style town hall meetings around the country. His stated goal is the presidency of his center-right party, the Union for a Popular Movement, or U.M.P., for its initials in French. |
| But there is little doubt that this campaign — with stickers that say simply “My President” — is intended as a steppingstone for another run at the Élysée Palace. | But there is little doubt that this campaign — with stickers that say simply “My President” — is intended as a steppingstone for another run at the Élysée Palace. |
| Mr. Sarkozy is clearly banking that the many failures of the Socialist who beat him, President François Hollande, will inspire some sort of nostalgia for him — or at least a willingness to give him and his conservative agenda another chance. The question is whether voters will forget about, or forgive, his toxic reputation when he was ousted from office, and whether he can pull off that redemption at a time when he is battling prosecutors over corruption charges as well as facing competition within his party. | Mr. Sarkozy is clearly banking that the many failures of the Socialist who beat him, President François Hollande, will inspire some sort of nostalgia for him — or at least a willingness to give him and his conservative agenda another chance. The question is whether voters will forget about, or forgive, his toxic reputation when he was ousted from office, and whether he can pull off that redemption at a time when he is battling prosecutors over corruption charges as well as facing competition within his party. |
| On stage here, Mr. Sarkozy does not hide his delight at being back. Experts say they believe he will win more than enough votes from party members to clinch its presidency next month. But it is becoming clearer every day that Mr. Sarkozy may be facing a far more complicated, potentially embarrassing campaign should he make another bid for the French presidency in 2017. | On stage here, Mr. Sarkozy does not hide his delight at being back. Experts say they believe he will win more than enough votes from party members to clinch its presidency next month. But it is becoming clearer every day that Mr. Sarkozy may be facing a far more complicated, potentially embarrassing campaign should he make another bid for the French presidency in 2017. |
| For one thing, since Mr. Sarkozy announced his return to politics on Facebook on Sept. 29, he has been losing ground in public opinion polls. One poll by Ipsos, taken in mid-October, found that an increasing majority of French people think his return to politics is a bad idea. Another, by IFOP, found that he was losing support even among U.M.P. members. | For one thing, since Mr. Sarkozy announced his return to politics on Facebook on Sept. 29, he has been losing ground in public opinion polls. One poll by Ipsos, taken in mid-October, found that an increasing majority of French people think his return to politics is a bad idea. Another, by IFOP, found that he was losing support even among U.M.P. members. |
| In the past few weeks, Mr. Sarkozy has also proved unable to influence legislators from his own party, suggesting that they at least doubt he will be around for long. When party members voted on a new leader in the Senate last month, Mr. Sarkozy’s favored candidate lost, an awkward turn of events for the former president. | In the past few weeks, Mr. Sarkozy has also proved unable to influence legislators from his own party, suggesting that they at least doubt he will be around for long. When party members voted on a new leader in the Senate last month, Mr. Sarkozy’s favored candidate lost, an awkward turn of events for the former president. |
| “It may be that the party faithful want him back,” said Christian Delporte, a history professor at the Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines, and a frequent political commentator. “But 60 percent of the public does not.” | “It may be that the party faithful want him back,” said Christian Delporte, a history professor at the Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines, and a frequent political commentator. “But 60 percent of the public does not.” |
| When Mr. Sarkozy retired in 2012 after losing his re-election bid to Mr. Hollande, few analysts said they believed that he had really bowed out of politics for good, as he then claimed. But few said they expected him back quite so soon. | When Mr. Sarkozy retired in 2012 after losing his re-election bid to Mr. Hollande, few analysts said they believed that he had really bowed out of politics for good, as he then claimed. But few said they expected him back quite so soon. |
| Mr. Sarkozy has framed his comeback in patriotic, even heroic, terms: The country was suffering through such a crisis that it would have been unconscionable for him to stay on the sidelines. But many experts say that his early return had more to do with the number of investigations piling up around him and the growing popularity of Alain Juppé, his likely rival in primaries expected in 2016. | Mr. Sarkozy has framed his comeback in patriotic, even heroic, terms: The country was suffering through such a crisis that it would have been unconscionable for him to stay on the sidelines. But many experts say that his early return had more to do with the number of investigations piling up around him and the growing popularity of Alain Juppé, his likely rival in primaries expected in 2016. |
| It was a question of stepping in now before it was too late, experts say. The party presidency will give Mr. Sarkozy a platform, control over party machinery and perhaps a shade of cover from the investigations that dog him, including questions about how much he knew about the vast overspending on his failed re-election bid, and then its cover-up. | It was a question of stepping in now before it was too late, experts say. The party presidency will give Mr. Sarkozy a platform, control over party machinery and perhaps a shade of cover from the investigations that dog him, including questions about how much he knew about the vast overspending on his failed re-election bid, and then its cover-up. |
| But running for the party presidency has also put Mr. Sarkozy in the uncomfortable position of campaigning for a job that is far smaller, and less glamorous, than the presidency of France. | But running for the party presidency has also put Mr. Sarkozy in the uncomfortable position of campaigning for a job that is far smaller, and less glamorous, than the presidency of France. |
| The U.M.P. is a troubled organization, torn apart by recent scandals and hugely in debt. Mr. Sarkozy faces several rivals within the organization, including his own former prime minister, François Fillon, who said this weekend that he would sue the newspaper Le Monde for reporting that he had tried to encourage legal action against Mr. Sarkozy in order to keep the former president from resuming a political career. | The U.M.P. is a troubled organization, torn apart by recent scandals and hugely in debt. Mr. Sarkozy faces several rivals within the organization, including his own former prime minister, François Fillon, who said this weekend that he would sue the newspaper Le Monde for reporting that he had tried to encourage legal action against Mr. Sarkozy in order to keep the former president from resuming a political career. |
| Coming back so early also means that Mr. Sarkozy, should he run for the French presidency, would face a marathon of a campaign, offering numerous opportunities for his volatile side to get him into trouble. | Coming back so early also means that Mr. Sarkozy, should he run for the French presidency, would face a marathon of a campaign, offering numerous opportunities for his volatile side to get him into trouble. |
| The left has already made him a target. Officials in the Hollande administration refer routinely to problems they inherited in 2012 and look for ways to embarrass Mr. Sarkozy. Recently, government officials released figures showing that Mr. Sarkozy’s presidential travel in 2011 had cost on average three times as much per trip as Mr. Hollande’s in 2013, figures that were clearly meant to reinforce Mr. Sarkozy’s image as a flashy free spender. | The left has already made him a target. Officials in the Hollande administration refer routinely to problems they inherited in 2012 and look for ways to embarrass Mr. Sarkozy. Recently, government officials released figures showing that Mr. Sarkozy’s presidential travel in 2011 had cost on average three times as much per trip as Mr. Hollande’s in 2013, figures that were clearly meant to reinforce Mr. Sarkozy’s image as a flashy free spender. |
| While experts say the French public has been sympathetic to political comebacks in the past, there is no previous case when a defeated president won another term. And two and a half years on the sidelines may not prove sufficient to have changed public perceptions of him, experts say. | While experts say the French public has been sympathetic to political comebacks in the past, there is no previous case when a defeated president won another term. And two and a half years on the sidelines may not prove sufficient to have changed public perceptions of him, experts say. |
| “There is not enough time for the public to think that he has really had time for reflection,” said Pascal Perrineau, the director of the Center for Political Research at the Institut d’Études Politiques in Paris. | “There is not enough time for the public to think that he has really had time for reflection,” said Pascal Perrineau, the director of the Center for Political Research at the Institut d’Études Politiques in Paris. |
| There is a joke going around, Mr. Perrineau added, that Mr. Sarkozy had not “crossed the desert” before his return to politics, “only a sandbox.” | There is a joke going around, Mr. Perrineau added, that Mr. Sarkozy had not “crossed the desert” before his return to politics, “only a sandbox.” |
| With the presidential election so far away, there is plenty of time for Mr. Sarkozy to advance in the polls, and he is generally considered a skilled strategist. His supporters admire what they see as his take-action approach. He frequently tells his audiences that France needs to get some backbone back into its politics. | With the presidential election so far away, there is plenty of time for Mr. Sarkozy to advance in the polls, and he is generally considered a skilled strategist. His supporters admire what they see as his take-action approach. He frequently tells his audiences that France needs to get some backbone back into its politics. |
| Mr. Sarkozy draws laughs from audiences by telling them that what he sees lately from Mr. Hollande’s government is the launching of proposals, then the second-guessing of those proposals, then the withdrawal of those proposals. | Mr. Sarkozy draws laughs from audiences by telling them that what he sees lately from Mr. Hollande’s government is the launching of proposals, then the second-guessing of those proposals, then the withdrawal of those proposals. |
| But exactly what Mr. Sarkozy himself stands for these days remains something of a mystery. | But exactly what Mr. Sarkozy himself stands for these days remains something of a mystery. |
| As he crisscrosses the country, he says he is focused on rejuvenating his party. He turns away questions about his views on various issues, saying he wants to hear every idea, not just impose his own. He says that this is so the party can be completely reorganized with a new platform. He suggests he is a calmer, wiser candidate, ready to collaborate with his rivals, including Mr. Juppé, known as more statesmanlike. | As he crisscrosses the country, he says he is focused on rejuvenating his party. He turns away questions about his views on various issues, saying he wants to hear every idea, not just impose his own. He says that this is so the party can be completely reorganized with a new platform. He suggests he is a calmer, wiser candidate, ready to collaborate with his rivals, including Mr. Juppé, known as more statesmanlike. |
| This leaves some listeners frustrated. In St.-Cyr-sur-Loire, Amin Baimou, a high school student, asked Mr. Sarkozy what he intended to do for young people if he won the presidency in 2017. Mr. Sarkozy deplored the fact that so many young French people went abroad to find work, but he offered no solutions. | This leaves some listeners frustrated. In St.-Cyr-sur-Loire, Amin Baimou, a high school student, asked Mr. Sarkozy what he intended to do for young people if he won the presidency in 2017. Mr. Sarkozy deplored the fact that so many young French people went abroad to find work, but he offered no solutions. |
| “It wasn’t much of an answer,” Mr. Baimou said. “He is not that impressive.” | “It wasn’t much of an answer,” Mr. Baimou said. “He is not that impressive.” |
| But some say that Mr. Sarkozy’s biggest problem may be that he has simply failed to change, which makes it that much harder to sell himself as a new candidate. | |
| “The right was ready to discover Sarkozy 2.0,” said Thomas Guénolé, who wrote a book analyzing why Mr. Sarkozy was likely to come back. “They could have been receptive, but it isn’t there. He is the same. Exactly the same.” | “The right was ready to discover Sarkozy 2.0,” said Thomas Guénolé, who wrote a book analyzing why Mr. Sarkozy was likely to come back. “They could have been receptive, but it isn’t there. He is the same. Exactly the same.” |