Even Madrid’s magicians owe a nod to Bould set-piece statistics

http://www.theguardian.com/football/blog/2014/nov/09/real-atletico-madrid-set-pieces-steve-bould

Version 0 of 1.

As the stone-washed YouTube footage of Arsenal’s 1988-89 season review spools into action, my notebook fills with ticks and crosses. Tick: set-piece goal. Cross: one from open play. Exactly 82 seconds in, after Jim Rosenthal has explained that George Graham’s side were 16-1 for the title, Wimbledon’s John Fashanu heads a free-kick past John Lukic. Tick. Arsenal equalise though Brian Marwood’s cross-shot after a Nigel Winterburn throw. Another tick.

Soon my notebook resembles a swot’s homework – tick! tick! tick! – especially when Arsenal begin honing their signature move: Marwood corner, Steve Bould meerkat-craning his neck for the flick-on and someone bundling it home. Such was its success that when the Gunners left Bould out of their penultimate league game against Wimbledon – a 2-2 draw – the Guardian’s David Lacey feared it had cost them the title because they “missed his ability to head the ball on from the near post, which has led to so many goals this season”.

Why am I telling you this? Because a coach-friend – who has worked for several league clubs – and I were recently discussing Gary Neville’s comments about the declining emphasis on defending. The coach thought Neville was spot on but highlighted another area where some English clubs had become less John Bull and more stereotypical Johnny Foreigner: time devoted to set pieces.

Such loose-knitted observations can be difficult to firm up with facts. In the 70s and 80s, when some sides were playing what was dismissed as caveman football, performance analysis was still in the Jurassic period. There was no Prozone or Gamebreaker to scrutinise every kick and spit. However, according to Opta, the number of set-piece goals in the five big European leagues has fallen – from 1,642 in 2011-12, to 1,586 in 2012-13, to 1,522 in 2013-14.

Perhaps it’s the growing focus on technique at the expense of time devoted to set pieces, or possibly the rise of the little man – see Barcelona and Arsenal – which has had knock-on effects for dead-ball success. But, sometimes, there has been a change in philosophy, too. The thinking goes something like this: only 6% of free-kicks from dangerous positions lead to a goal. Corners? More like 3%. So, why bother with something unlikely to bring a reward?

There are two problems with such an approach: first, most actions in football don’t lead to goals. Second, over the past three years in the big five European leagues, 31% of goals have been scored from set pieces. 31%! One in three! That is a hefty number. Yet set-plays can sometimes be seen as a bit grubby and vulgar.

But it is no surprise that, since 2004‑05, teams coached by Sam Allardyce are better at scoring from corners than the Premier League average. Allardyce’s teams have scored 56 corner goals in 296 league games – an average of one nearly every five. The Premier League average is one in seven.

In Italy Gianni Vio – the Little Wizard – gave up a banking career to become a set-piece expert and had considerable success at Catania and Fiorentina before joining Milan last summer.

And then there is Atlético Madrid. They were bobbing along in mid-table when Diego Simeone took over in December 2011 but have since secured La Liga, Europa League, European Super Cup, Copa del Rey successes and reached the Champions League final.

There are myriad reasons for their astounding success but Simeone’s shark-eyed attention to dead-ball opportunities, which he absorbed from Argentina’s World Cup-winning coach Carlos Bilardo, is chief among them. So far this season, 12 of their 20 league goals have come that way. And only Real Madrid – with 85 set-piece goals – have scored more than Atlético’s 80 in the five big European leagues since Simeone’s appointment.

Real’s success is easy to explain. It’s not only Cristiano Ronaldo and Gareth Bale but Luka Modric, Toni Kroos and Isco – and the aerial strength of Sergio Ramos, Pepe, Ronaldo and Raphaël Varane. But, as their assistant coach Paul Clement told Sid Lowe, they work hard at the basics, too: the quality of the ball into the box, movement, getting a block or screen on opponents – and repeatedly drumming home individual responsibility.

Simeone’s template is not dissimilar. Last season Atlético’s set pieces were numbered and their manager would hold up his fingers on the touchline to signify which one he wanted taken. But it is his assistant, Germán Burgos, who comes up with new ideas, working on ways that Gabi or Koke can find the many big men in their team. Again, it is about the fundamentals: recognising set pieces are important, repetition, accurate delivery, aggression. And how appropriate was it that Diego Godín’s header from a corner sealed Atlético’s title last season?

Incidentally, 42% of Atlético’s league goals have come from set pieces since Simeone’s arrival – the third highest percentage in Europe, just behind Levante and Granada, with Espanyol fourth. Stoke, meanwhile, are fifth. And the two teams with the lowest percentage of their goals from dead balls since December 2011? Barcelona (18.9%) and Arsenal (18.6%). You wonder what, privately, Bould makes of that.

Of course, set-piece success isn’t everything. Goals are goals. But, given the two best teams in Europe last season care so much about getting dead-ball situations right, shouldn’t everyone else too?