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In Asia, midterm rout of Democrats means a loss of face for Obama U.S. election results resonate globally, with fears of a deepening void
(about 5 hours later)
TOKYO — President Obama’s challenges in Asia will become greater, analysts say, now that Republicans have taken control of the Senate and made it much less likely that the White House will be able to advance its agenda over the next two years. LONDON — A Republican romp in U.S. midterm elections that was built in part on American anxiety over an increasingly dangerous world prompted concerns from overseas Wednesday that President Obama’s global role will only be further diminished.
While there are some bright spots — a Republican-controlled Congress is expected to be more supportive of the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a free-trade deal linking 12 countries — the American president has lost face with the electoral rout. With little prospect for ending Washington gridlock on major domestic issues, Obama will have no shortage of foreign crises to turn to, including Russian advances in Ukraine, the disintegrating order in the Middle East and the threat of a spreading Ebola virus.
“Obama has become the incredible shrinking president,” said Jeff Kingston, director of Asian studies at Temple University’s campus in Tokyo. “He’s very much weakened by the midterm results and that’s going to diminish him in his foreign policy. Leaders in Asia will now view him as a lame duck.” But from London to Tokyo, observers said the bruising defeats sustained by Obama’s Democratic allies will likely leave him with less clout in trying to navigate global troubles – and could add to a leadership void that Republicans seized on to help gain advantage with voters.
Seiichi Kanise, a journalist and Meiji University professor, echoed this sentiment on Twitter: “With both Senate and House of Representatives being majority Republican, the Obama Cabinet be a definite lame duck. This will affect Japan and the world’s security policies.” “Obama has become the incredible shrinking president,” said Jeff Kingston, director of Asian studies at Temple University’s campus in Tokyo.“He’s very much weakened by the midterm results and that’s going to diminish him in his foreign policy. Leaders in Asia will now view him as a lame duck.”
Indeed, Asian governments will likely see the midterm results as a vote of no confidence in Obama’s leadership style, said Michael Green, an Asia adviser during George W. Bush's presidency, now at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. In Europe, where Obama remains considerably more popular than he is in the United States, leaders long ago gave up on the idea that he could fundamentally reorient America’s global role. But Tuesday’s defeat confirmed there will continue to be a vacuum for the final two years of what many Europeans once hoped would be a transformational presidency.
“Asian governments have been concerned about the leadership quality of the president,” Green said. “If he doesn’t change his leadership style, this could be seen in the region as validation on their part that the president is not leading effectively.” “I don’t think Europeans were expecting much in terms of U.S. leadership over the next two years, and this will reinforce their beliefs,” said Mujtaba Rahman, Europe Director for the Eurasia Group, a global consulting firm.
For Japan, having Republicans controlling both the House of Representatives and the Senate could mean some progress on the TPP. Tuesday’s humbling results for Obama could also embolden American adversaries to further prod the limits of U.S. power.
Politicians in Tokyo blame Washington for the slow progress towards striking a trade deal because Obama does not have the “fast track” authority from Congress needed to push it through. “If they see that the U.S. is tied hand and foot at home because of domestic constraints, those in Moscow, Beijing or at Islamic State headquarters might be thinking America is a house divided against itself, and a house divided against itself is weak,” said Michael Cox, co-director of LSE Ideas, a London-based think tank. “Given the complexity of the challenges facing the West, this is about the worst time possible for a divided America and a weak Europe.”
Perhaps the most Obama can hope for, Cox said, is to manage and contain the crises he already faces.
Among the few foreign policy areas where Obama might expect to make actual progress in his final two years, analysts said, is trade.
A Republican-controlled Congress is expected to be more supportive of the Trans-PacificPartnership, a free-trade deal linking 12 countries.
Politicians in Tokyo blame Washington for the slow progress toward a trade deal because Obama does not have the “fast track”authority from Congress needed to push it through.
Harry Reid, the Democratic leader of the Senate, had refused to allow a bill giving him such authority to come up for a vote. But Mitch McConnell, the Republican who will now run the upper chamber, is expected to view the issue more favorably.Harry Reid, the Democratic leader of the Senate, had refused to allow a bill giving him such authority to come up for a vote. But Mitch McConnell, the Republican who will now run the upper chamber, is expected to view the issue more favorably.
“This could put the life back in TPP,” Kingston said. “There are better than even chances that Obama will be granted fast track authority to negotiate a deal without congressional tweaking and that is crucial to get other countries to put their best offers on the table.” “This could put the life back in TPP,” Kingston said. “There are better than even chances that Obama will be granted fast-track authority to negotiate a deal without congressional tweaking and that is crucial to get other countries to put their best offers on the table.”
Republicans, backed by big business, have a history of being much more supportive of free trade deals. If a Republican Senate gives Obama the authority to strike a multilateral TPP agreement then the ball would be back in Japan’s court. Republicans,backed by big business, have a history of being much more supportive of free trade deals. If a Republican Senate gives Obama the authority to strike a multilateral TPP agreement then the ball would be back in Japan’s court.
TPP is partly aimed at binding together the 12 members — which include Japan, Chile, Canada, Mexico and New Zealand — and acting as a counterweight to rising Chinese power.TPP is partly aimed at binding together the 12 members — which include Japan, Chile, Canada, Mexico and New Zealand — and acting as a counterweight to rising Chinese power.
A similar trade deal being hammered out between Washington and Europe could also get a boost from Tuesday’s results, although that agreement is far less likely to be inked in the next two years. Rahman said that even if politicians in Washington can agree on terms, Europe remains divided.
In China, analysts said a Republican-controlled Senate could have a negative effect on relations with China, although they warned that it was much too soon to tell.In China, analysts said a Republican-controlled Senate could have a negative effect on relations with China, although they warned that it was much too soon to tell.
“Obama will face more criticism of his policies on China, and that could push him to a tougher foreign policy,” said Zhu Feng, international relations professor at Peking University. “A lot of friction already exists between the U.S. and China, and it might only grow worse.”“Obama will face more criticism of his policies on China, and that could push him to a tougher foreign policy,” said Zhu Feng, international relations professor at Peking University. “A lot of friction already exists between the U.S. and China, and it might only grow worse.”
Indeed, there is growing concern in Congress about China not playing by the rules and having unfair trade advantages, said Bonnie Glaser, a China expert at CSIS. “There’s a sense that the U.S. should be tougher on China,” she said. “That comes from both sides, but Republicans are just more willing to use it against president as a tactical move to say Obama is being too soft on China.” Indeed, there is growing concern in Congress about China not playing by the rules and enjoying unfair trade advantages, said Bonnie Glaser, a China expert at CSIS. “There’s a sense that the U.S. should be tougher on China,” she said.“That comes from both sides, but Republicans are just more willing to use it against the president as a tactical move to say Obama is being too soft on China.”
Although the average Chinese person would be hard pressed to distinguish between any Republican and Democratic candidate, bloggers have been fascinated by Chinese-Americans running for office. Much of the commentary online has been about these Chinese-American politicians, many expressing doubts they would be any more friendly to China and some even implying they are betrayers of China. Fifield reported from Tokyo. William Wan and Xu Jing in Beijing, Karla Adam in London, Yuki Oda in Tokyo and Yoonjung Seo in Seoul contributed to this report.
“They will earn votes by giving China a tougher time,” said one blogger on Chinese social media under the handle “Nomad.”
In South Korea, there was little reaction to the election results. The change in Senate leadership is not expected to have any discernible impact on American policy towards North Korea, given that both Democrats and Republicans take a hard line against Kim Jong Un’s regime.
“Regardless of the result of the midterm election, we expect continuous close cooperation between South Korea and the U.S. on North Korea, based on the support of the U.S. Congress,” a government spokesman in Seoul said.
Despite the lackluster response to the midterms, there is one possible positive effect for Asia: Faced with bigger challenges at home, Obama might spend more of his remaining two years in the White House looking abroad.
That kind of outward focus “could provide a great opportunity for China to cooperate with Obama to make concrete progress on issues like anti-terrorism, trade in gas,” said Jin Canrong, professor of U.S.-China relations at Renmin University in Beijing.
Fifield reported from Tokyo and Wan from Beijing. Xu Jing, Yuki Oda and Yoonjung Seo contributed to this report.