Midterms 2014: what will it take for Republicans to win Congress?
|
Version 0 of 1. America votes on Tuesday. In the House of Representatives the balance of power is unlikely to change. The Republicans currently hold 233 seats, the Democrats 199, and if anything the gap could widen further. The GOP needs 13 seats for its largest House majority since 1928. While a net gain of eight seats would give Republicans the same majority they had in 2010. Among the 36 gubernatorial elections, there are quite a few exciting tossups. Yet, most eyes will be on the Senate elections where the Republicans look set to win back a majority. Here’s a look at how the Senate elections may play out. The Republicans currently hold 45 seats in the US Senate On Tuesday, 36 seats will be up for grabs. In addition to the 33 regularly scheduled votes, there are special elections in Hawaii, South Carolina and Oklahoma. Of the 36 seats up for grabs, 15 are currently held by the Republicans, 21 by Democrats. Historically, the party of the incumbent president struggles in the midterms. In every midterm but three since 1862, the party that controls the White House has lost seats. To make matters even more complicated for the Democrats, six of the 21 seats they are defending are in states President Obama lost twice. Only 10 of Tuesday’s races are expected to be close. From the lot of current Democrat seats, the Republicans are expected to take Montana, South Dakota and West Virginia quite comfortably. What the polls say Here is a roundup of the latest forecasts for these 10 contests, modelled by the New York Times, FiveThirtyEight, Huffington Post, Washington Post and the Cook Political Report If everything goes according to the polls, the Republicans would end up with 52 seats. The Republicans’ path to a majority Over the past 21 years, the party of the incumbent president has lost, in average four Senate seats during the midterms. In order to control the Senate, the Republicans need a net gain of six seats – as things stand, they seem to have a clear path to a majority, but it could become narrow if they don’t hold onto all the seats they currently hold. Finally, the Republicans’ path may be clear, albeit potentially tight, but it could end up being a slow journey – it is quite probable that we will need to wait a while before knowing who controls the Senate. If Louisiana and Georgia both head to a runoff vote, the wait may well take until January. Only a ~40% chance we'll know who won the Senate by a week from today. Blame these states! --> http://t.co/TI0SgJ3QaC pic.twitter.com/aW1phVbVIM |