US midterm elections – the Guardian briefing

http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2014/oct/31/-sp-us-midterm-elections-the-guardian-briefing

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What’s the story?

Republicans appear poised to win a majority of seats in the US Senate, giving them control of both houses of Congress for the first time since midway through George W Bush’s presidency. It is highly routine for the president’s party to lose seats in a midterm election. Democrats currently enjoy a functional 10-seat advantage in the Senate and had hoped to emerge from election day on 4 November with a slim majority intact.

Unfortunately for the Democrats, a number of broad factors are going against them, including near-record-low approval ratings for President Barack Obama, a spluttering economy, frustration with the president’s healthcare law and a projected low turnout among core voting groups.

How did this happen?

The prospect of Democratic losses stems from more than just the unfavourable fundamentals of an off-year election and an unpopular president (eligible voters currently disapprove of Obama’s performance by a 53-42 margin). Democrats are also suffering in 2014 from the retirement of key senators and the bad timing of having multiple re-election battles playing out in states where Republicans performed especially well in 2012.

There are other forces at play, too. One of them is the coordinated effort by Republican leaders to institute restrictive voting rules, placing hurdles in the way of would-be voters, particularly from Democratic-leaning backgrounds. In the last decade, Republican-led legislatures have introduced about 1,000 voter ID laws – requiring voters to produce photo IDs or restricting polling hours – and nearly 100 have been adopted. Inconsistent intervention by the courts has made for a complicated national voting landscape.

The Guardian US interactive team has created a state-by-state guide to voting restrictions:

What’s at stake?

It is unclear just what a Republican victory in the battle for the Senate would mean, because it is unclear what strategy Republicans will adopt once in power. Certain key Democratic initiatives, such as immigration reform and legislative action on climate change, have already succumbed to opposition from the Republican-led House of Representatives. If the GOP gains control of the Senate, too, Republicans could do more to hobble the president, vetoing nominees for judgeships, cabinet positions and other appointments requiring Senate approval.

A Republican legislature could also mean Obama being forced at last to wield the veto pen, which he has resorted to so far with historic infrequency. That will quickly change if a Republican Congress starts passing laws repealing Obamacare.

But many analysts have identified a not-so-hidden hazard here for Republicans, too. If they are seen as too intransigent or antagonistic toward the president, they risk alienating the public and harming their chances to win the real prize: the White House. The Democrats unquestionably have the candidate to beat in 2016 in Hillary Clinton. The Republican field so far seems comparatively light. They need every extra ounce of goodwill they can get.

The other potential downside for Republicans is the same that faces any opposition party on the verge of a takeover: being in charge of government means voters expect you to govern. Republicans have made big promises to their base about cutting taxes and downsizing federal programmes. Failure to deliver is likely to come with a political cost. In addition, an aggressive Republican legislature could damage the party’s leading presidential prospects, who are currently members of the Senate – namely Rand Paul, Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz – by forcing them to make votes that may be hard to explain to a general election audience.

If nothing else, the drawing of a clean partisan line between the executive and legislative branches would seem to portend even deeper partisan bitterness and legislative paralysis, which in turn could create the kind of ugly spectacle on Capitol Hill that breeds voter disillusionment. Fewer than half of registered US voters are aware of the basic fact that the Republican party currently holds the House, while Democrats hold the Senate. That proportion – and voter participation in general – seems in danger of dropping off further still, with negative implications for the health of American democracy.

How can I find out more?

For coverage of US politics and elections, read our daily State of the Race update, pay regular visits to the Guardian US politics page and subscribe to the Guardian US daily email. For granular polling data and US elections news, visit Real Clear Politics. For a state-by-state breakdown of voting rules visit the National Conference of State Legislatures website.