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Computing the Political Impact of Canada’s Attacks Computing the Political Impact of Canada’s Attacks
(about 1 hour later)
OTTAWA — Barely a week after attacks by homegrown extremists killed two soldiers and pocked the nation’s parliamentary complex with bullets, questions about the impact on Canada’s future have begun to ebb. OTTAWA — Barely a week after attacks by homegrown extremists killed two soldiers and pocked the nation’s parliamentary complex with bullets, questions about the impact on Canada’s future have begun to ebb.
The questions now are about the impact on Stephen Harper’s future.The questions now are about the impact on Stephen Harper’s future.
Mr. Harper, Canada’s no-nonsense prime minister since 2006, has done what might have seemed laughable a decade ago: He has led his Conservative Party to majority rule in a nation that he once called “a Northern European welfare state in the worst sense of the term.”Mr. Harper, Canada’s no-nonsense prime minister since 2006, has done what might have seemed laughable a decade ago: He has led his Conservative Party to majority rule in a nation that he once called “a Northern European welfare state in the worst sense of the term.”
More than that, he has persuaded a genetically liberal electorate to endorse the most conservative foreign and domestic agendas in modern Canada’s history. From more robust military budgets to tax cuts to looser firearms regulations, Mr. Harper might well be termed George W. Bush light — a man with Mr. Bush’s deep mistrust of government and muscular foreign-policy instincts, carried out with a Canadian touch.More than that, he has persuaded a genetically liberal electorate to endorse the most conservative foreign and domestic agendas in modern Canada’s history. From more robust military budgets to tax cuts to looser firearms regulations, Mr. Harper might well be termed George W. Bush light — a man with Mr. Bush’s deep mistrust of government and muscular foreign-policy instincts, carried out with a Canadian touch.
Now all that is imperiled. With elections no more than a year away, the Conservatives trail in the polls, saddled with a scandal and facing a charismatic new leader of the archrival Liberals. Now, all that is imperiled. With elections no more than a year away, the Conservatives trail in the polls, saddled with a scandal and facing a charismatic new leader of the archrival Liberals.
For Mr. Harper, the two attacks have been a time to reassure a stricken nation. But they may also prove a political gift. How adroitly Mr. Harper surfs the waves of unity stirred by the attacks could determine whether he cements a conservative legacy, some analysts say — or undoes it.For Mr. Harper, the two attacks have been a time to reassure a stricken nation. But they may also prove a political gift. How adroitly Mr. Harper surfs the waves of unity stirred by the attacks could determine whether he cements a conservative legacy, some analysts say — or undoes it.
“How the public perceives the response to this will play very large in the next election,” said a longtime Conservative Party member who declined to be named because of the sensitivity of the topic. “There’s a chance he could overreach if he clamps down and goes too far. It’s not a slam-dunk win.”“How the public perceives the response to this will play very large in the next election,” said a longtime Conservative Party member who declined to be named because of the sensitivity of the topic. “There’s a chance he could overreach if he clamps down and goes too far. It’s not a slam-dunk win.”
Mr. Harper has been easy to underestimate. Stodgy and cerebral, he can be wooden in public and, it is said, volcanic in private. He would rather read footnotes in policy briefs than work a rope line. And yet he has become the most influential conservative in Canada’s modern history. Mr. Harper has been easy to underestimate. Stodgy and cerebral, he can be wooden in public and, it is said, volcanic in private. He would rather read footnotes in policy briefs than work a rope line. And yet, he has become the most influential conservative in Canada’s modern history.
In his 10 years as the Conservative Party’s leader, the party’s share of the House of Commons has grown by two-thirds, to 167 of the 308 seats. His ruthless political tactics are sometimes without precedent. In his 10 years as the Conservative Party’s leader, the party’s share of the House of Commons has grown by two-thirds, to 167 of 308 seats. His ruthless political tactics are sometimes without precedent.
Most of all, he has remade the national agenda. He has cut taxes and toughened criminal justice rules to favor mandatory prison time. He rejects the threat of climate change and revoked Canada’s support of the Kyoto Protocol on limiting carbon emissions.Most of all, he has remade the national agenda. He has cut taxes and toughened criminal justice rules to favor mandatory prison time. He rejects the threat of climate change and revoked Canada’s support of the Kyoto Protocol on limiting carbon emissions.
Mr. Harper’s Canada has unconditionally supported Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel, virulently criticized President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia and joined early in military attacks on the Islamic State.Mr. Harper’s Canada has unconditionally supported Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel, virulently criticized President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia and joined early in military attacks on the Islamic State.
“He has shifted the center of political discourse and political action in Canada well to the right,” C. E. S. Franks, a parliamentary scholar and professor emeritus at Queens University in Kingston, Ontario, said in an interview. If Canada’s Liberal Party has dominated Canadian politics for decades, Professor Franks said, “what we’re looking at now is the possibility of a long Conservative reign.”“He has shifted the center of political discourse and political action in Canada well to the right,” C. E. S. Franks, a parliamentary scholar and professor emeritus at Queens University in Kingston, Ontario, said in an interview. If Canada’s Liberal Party has dominated Canadian politics for decades, Professor Franks said, “what we’re looking at now is the possibility of a long Conservative reign.”
But political experts say that is not a given. Originally from Toronto, Mr. Harper found his ideological niche in Alberta, a fiercely conservative province where he joined a right-wing Western protest group, the Reform Party. By 2003, he had effectively engineered a reverse takeover of the Progressive Conservatives, the traditional party of the right, keeping the leader’s position in the merger.
Mr. Harper marched the Conservatives into the majority in no small part with strategic shrewdness and almost fanatical discipline. Originally from Toronto, he found his ideological niche in Alberta, a fiercely conservative province where he joined a right-wing Western protest group, the Reform Party. By 2003, he had effectively engineered a reverse takeover of the Progressive Conservatives, the traditional party of the right, keeping the leader’s position in the merger.
In 2006 elections, when the ruling Liberal Party became mired in a slush-fund scandal, he cast himself as a moderate, fending off charges that he had a secret right-wing agenda — and found himself prime minister.In 2006 elections, when the ruling Liberal Party became mired in a slush-fund scandal, he cast himself as a moderate, fending off charges that he had a secret right-wing agenda — and found himself prime minister.
It has been a top-down reign. Public appearances are scripted. Mr. Harper controls his message so completely that even government scientists are barred from speaking without clearance, a diktat that has drawn harsh criticism.It has been a top-down reign. Public appearances are scripted. Mr. Harper controls his message so completely that even government scientists are barred from speaking without clearance, a diktat that has drawn harsh criticism.
“Harper never allowed any of us to be called strategists,” said Ken Boessenkool, a onetime senior policy adviser who now runs a public affairs firm. “That was reserved for the leader.”“Harper never allowed any of us to be called strategists,” said Ken Boessenkool, a onetime senior policy adviser who now runs a public affairs firm. “That was reserved for the leader.”
There is a reason, he said: Mr. Harper remembers the bickering of old. The party he runs will speak with one voice. But such singular control has meant that miscalculations go unchecked, too.
Critics accuse Mr. Harper of political expediency, at home and abroad. His government briefly embraced a broad agenda to limit global warming gases, for example, when the opposition Liberals made a die-hard environmentalist their leader in 2007. Critics accuse Mr. Harper of political expediency, at home and abroad. He ardently wooed liberal Quebec with political blandishments, giving French a prime spot in his speeches, creating a Quebec seat in Canada’s Unesco delegation and showering the province with funds transferred from federal coffers. His courtship backfired, and Conservative power in the province remains minuscule.
But the government has miscalculated more than once, and suffered the consequences. Mr. Harper is a die-hard supporter of the proposed Keystone XL pipeline that would carry oil from his adopted Alberta to the Gulf Coast. When the Obama administration came under intense pressure from environmentalists to block construction in the United States, Mr. Harper’s government began a lobbying campaign and a full-out attack on critics, trapping the White House between the two adversaries. The project sits in limbo.
Mr. Harper is a die-hard supporter of the proposed Keystone XL pipeline that would carry oil from his adopted Alberta to the Gulf Coast. When the Obama administration came under intense pressure from environmentalists to block construction in the United States, Mr. Harper’s government initiated a lobbying campaign and a full-out attack on critics, trapping the White House between the two adversaries. The project sits in limbo. If such failures leave Mr. Harper chagrined, which is not certain, they do not deter him. “He campaigns on the basis of respect, and not love,” said a senior Conservative who did not want to be identified discussing the prime minister’s feelings.
If such failures leave Mr. Harper chagrined — that is not certain — they do not deter him. “He campaigns on the basis of respect, and not love,” said a senior Conservative who did not want to be identified discussing the prime minister’s feelings. Mr. Boessenkool said Mr. Harper never expected instant success. “Harper has moved the Conservative agenda,” he said. “He does it incrementally.”
Mr. Harper, Mr. Boessenkool said, knows that liberal Canada needs time to adjust to his agenda. “Harper has moved the Conservative agenda,” he said. “He does it incrementally.”
But increments take time. How much Mr. Harper has is questionable.But increments take time. How much Mr. Harper has is questionable.
Their comeback notwithstanding, the Conservatives have never claimed much more than 40 percent of the vote; the Liberals and a leftist group, the New Democratic Party, split the rest.Their comeback notwithstanding, the Conservatives have never claimed much more than 40 percent of the vote; the Liberals and a leftist group, the New Democratic Party, split the rest.
And the electorate is shifting: This year, an expense-account skimming scandal in Canada’s appointed Senate spread to Mr. Harper’s top aide and tarnished his reputation for integrity. Mr. Harper’s tax cuts, popular with voters, have drained federal coffers, leaving the government scrambling to avoid an embarrassing budget deficit in an election season. And the electorate is shifting: This year, efforts by Mr. Harper’s top aide to make an expense-account skimming scandal in Canada’s appointed Senate go away tarnished the government’s reputation for integrity. Mr. Harper’s tax cuts, popular with voters, have drained federal coffers, leaving the government scrambling to avoid an embarrassing budget deficit in an election season.
And the Liberals, whose own haplessness in the last decade eased Mr. Harper’s rise, have found a new leader in Justin Trudeau, the dashing 42-year-old son of the popular former Prime Minister Pierre Trudeau. Recent polls show Liberals clawing back into the lead. And the Liberals, whose own haplessness in the last decade eased Mr. Harper’s rise, have found a new leader in Justin Trudeau, the dashing 42-year-old son of a popular former prime minister, Pierre Elliott Trudeau. Recent polls show Liberals clawing back into the lead.
If no politician would admit it, some analysts say last week’s tragedies offer Mr. Harper a chance to reclaim the high ground. His Facebook and Twitter pages echo the money quote from his speech in the wake of last week’s killing of a ceremonial guard in Ottawa: “Canada will not be intimidated.” The political calculus is simple: If supporters return, Mr. Harper could call early elections, before the patriotic fervor subsides. Even if no politician would admit it, some analysts say last week’s tragedies offer Mr. Harper a chance to reclaim the high ground. His Facebook and Twitter pages echo the money quote from his speech in the wake of last week’s killing of a ceremonial guard in Ottawa: “Canada will not be intimidated.” The political calculus is simple: If supporters return, Mr. Harper could call early elections, before the patriotic fervor subsides.
“This is a big plus for him when you get this kind of patriotic fervor, and the country looks for strong leadership,” said Lawrence Martin, a Toronto Globe and Mail columnist and author of a book on the prime minister, “Harperland.” “He’s a law-and-order guy, and this plays into the politics of Stephen Harper.”“This is a big plus for him when you get this kind of patriotic fervor, and the country looks for strong leadership,” said Lawrence Martin, a Toronto Globe and Mail columnist and author of a book on the prime minister, “Harperland.” “He’s a law-and-order guy, and this plays into the politics of Stephen Harper.”
And if not, Mr. Harper never wanted to be loved — just respected.