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Preliminary Counts Show Secular Party Leading in Tunisian Parliamentary Vote Islamist Party in Tunisia Concedes to Secularists
(about 11 hours later)
TUNIS — The secular party Nidaa Tounes has won the largest number of seats in Tunisia’s parliamentary election, defeating its main rival, the Islamist party Ennahda, according to two analyses of results across the country. TUNIS — The secular Nidaa Tounes party won the largest number of seats in Tunisia’s parliamentary elections on Monday, defeating its main rival, the Islamist party Ennahda, which just three years ago swept to power as the North African nation celebrated the fall of its longtime dictator in the Arab Spring revolution.
Nidaa Tounes is 10 percentage points ahead of Ennahda. It has won 83 seats, with roughly 38 percent of the popular vote, to Ennahda’s 68 seats, representing about 31 percent of the vote, the Turkish news agency Anadolu reported after tabulating its own count of 214 of the 217 parliamentary seats. Though just a few official results had been released on Monday night, Ennahda’s leader, Rachid Ghannouchi, called Beji Caid Essebsi, the 87-year-old leader of Nidaa Tounes, on Monday evening to congratulate him. Mr. Ghannouchi then threw a large street party for party workers outside Ennahda’s campaign headquarters, with music and fireworks.
A parallel tabulation conducted by a Tunisian election observer organization, Mourakiboun, placed Nidaa Tounes at 37 percent and Ennahda at 28 percent. Those figures were based on a random sample of 1,001 polling centers across the country, with a margin of error of 2 percent and 1 percent on the respective totals. Ennahda’s former foreign minister, Rafik Abdessalem, said that by the party’s count, Ennahda had won 69 to 73 seats, while Nidaa Tounes had most likely won 83 seats.
Officials from both parties said that although premature, the counts matched their information. “We accept the result,” Mr. Abdessalem said. “There are some irregularities, but we consider we succeeded in this process to hold transparent democratic elections.”
Official results have not yet been released, and parties are restrained by law from announcing their own count before the election commission does. Provisional results are expected on Monday, but final results will take at least 48 hours. Mr. Essebsi told French television France 24 that even though the official results were not completed, he had accepted Mr. Ghannouchi’s congratulations with appreciation. His party announced its victory on its Facebook page. “We won,” it said. “Long live Tunisia.”
Early results also showed a surprise gain for the party of the Tunisian tycoon Slim Riahi, who ran a flashy campaign that included handouts and pop concerts. Some of the smaller political parties fared badly under a new voting system, in particular Ettakatol, a coalition partner in the former government. The swing away from Ennahda, a large, well-organized party built along the lines of the Muslim Brotherhood with deep roots throughout the country, to Nidaa Tounes surprised many. Nidaa Tounes is a newly formed alliance of former government officials, left-wing politicians and secularists, who came together in 2012 in opposition to the Islamists. The party had appeared unorganized and divided internally, while Ennahda was known to have a committed and disciplined core of supporters.
Nidaa Tounes, led by former Prime Minister Beji Caid Essebsi, 87, is an alliance of former government officials, liberals and secularists that was formed in 2012, largely in reaction to the post-revolutionary chaos under the Ennadha-led government. It was sharply critical of the Islamists’ performance and ran a campaign for a modern, secular society. Ennahda had won 89 seats in 2011, making it the largest party in Parliament after the revolution that overthrew the government of President Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali. Many Tunisians at the time said they had voted for Ennahda members because of their religious profile, hoping that they would be honest and not corrupt like the Ben Ali entourage.
The results, if confirmed, would be a blow for Ennahda, which won a large popular vote and 89 seats in 2011 but struggled to manage rising insecurity and a sliding economy. Many Ennahda members had emerged from prison or had returned from exile after the revolution and were afforded some sympathy. Yet they proved largely inexperienced and unable to manage the mounting instability, and alienated many by allowing a rapid spread of Islamist groups, some of which turned to violence.
Tunisians filled polling stations on Sunday to elect a new Parliament, expressing a strong desire and some trepidation that, after months of political turmoil, the country would turn a corner nearly four years after a revolution. While Tunisians are overwhelmingly Muslim, and their sympathies lie with their fellow Arabs — in particular for those suffering in conflict, whether Palestinians, Syrians or Libyans — they have sharply rejected insurgent violence at home and support the Tunisian Army and the police as they battle Islamist insurgents active inside Tunisia. Still, some 3,000 young Tunisians have joined the extremist group that calls itself the Islamic State to take up arms in Syria and Iraq, a disproportionally high number for such a small country.
Officials said the provisional turnout was nearly 62 percent, which election observers said demonstrated Tunisians’ support for democracy. Mr. Essebsi, an experienced statesman who served in previous governments as minister, ambassador and president of Parliament, co-founded Nidaa Tounes and quickly placed it as an alternative to the creeping Islamist threat and the growing insecurity. The party became the center of the opposition movement, including some two million people who had worked for the government and party under Mr. Ben Ali and felt threatened by the revolution.
The elections are the second in Tunisia since the popular uprising that overthrew President Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali in 2011 and set off the Arab Spring. They will bring in a new Parliament and government for a five-year term. Presidential elections are scheduled for next month. “Beji gives confidence,” said Tahar Chegrouche, a Tunisian sociologist and election observer, using the familiar name most Tunisians use for Mr. Essebsi.  
Political analysts and election observers said the signs of popular frustration were evident, and the election result was a clear protest vote against the Ennadha government.
The underlying divisions in Tunisian society, an Arab Muslim nation that has an ancient Mediterranean history, and lived under influences of French colonialism and forced secularism for more than 50 years since independence, are also well established and explain some of the backlash against the Islamists, analysts and observers added.
“Ennahda lost for three reasons,” Mr. Chegrouche said. “The increase in unemployment, the economy and their perceived laxity against terrorism,” he said. “It was all this together. And people voted for a single force that could combat that.”
Voters did not support the array of small parties, but the one sizable party that could inspire confidence and stability, he said.
International observers following the elections said there had been high expectations after the Tunisian revolution and widespread frustration at the government’s failure to deliver on those expectations.
“There is nothing like experience in governance to teach a lesson,” said Kenneth Wollack, president of the National Democratic Institute, who was following the election in Tunisia.
After two political assassinations last year, an incipient insurgency and rising insecurity, Ennahda was forced to step down and hand over to a caretaker government.
Prime Minister Mehdi Jomaa, a technocrat, has been leading the government since January but said in an interview last week that no government could fix the economy quickly after a revolution. “That is revolution; social and political tensions and a lot of disorder,” he said. “It can look like a television drama. You need time.”
Early results also showed a surprise gain for the party of the tycoon Slim Riahi, who ran a flashy campaign that included pop concerts. Western officials support the idea of Nidaa Tounes and Ennahda collaborating to form a national unity government, bringing in some of the smaller parties as well.
Yet Mr. Essebsi may try to form a government with the smaller parties and leave Ennahda in opposition. No one is expecting a rapid formation of the new government, and both parties have agreed to wait for presidential elections next month, with a possible runoff in December, to allow the new president to appoint a prime minister.