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| Latest North Korean Mystery: A Diplomatic Charm Offensive | |
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| WASHINGTON — For weeks, American intelligence agencies puzzled over the mysterious disappearance of Kim Jong-un, the North Korean dictator. Now Mr. Kim is back on the public stage — a walking stick in his left hand — and it is the State Department’s turn to puzzle. | |
| A series of gestures by the North Korean leader, most dramatically the release this week of an imprisoned American tourist, Jeffrey E. Fowle, has raised hopes that after two and a half years of bellicose rhetoric, punctuated by periodic missile tests, Mr. Kim is groping for some kind of rapprochement with the United States and its allies. | A series of gestures by the North Korean leader, most dramatically the release this week of an imprisoned American tourist, Jeffrey E. Fowle, has raised hopes that after two and a half years of bellicose rhetoric, punctuated by periodic missile tests, Mr. Kim is groping for some kind of rapprochement with the United States and its allies. |
| It has been a multifront charm offensive: North Korea unexpectedly sent a high-level delegation to South Korea to attend the closing ceremonies of the Asian Games. It dispatched a senior envoy to the European Union to voice an interest in dialogue, and another to the wood-paneled confines of the Council on Foreign Relations in New York, where he sparred with an establishment crowd over North Korea’s human rights record. | It has been a multifront charm offensive: North Korea unexpectedly sent a high-level delegation to South Korea to attend the closing ceremonies of the Asian Games. It dispatched a senior envoy to the European Union to voice an interest in dialogue, and another to the wood-paneled confines of the Council on Foreign Relations in New York, where he sparred with an establishment crowd over North Korea’s human rights record. |
| On Wednesday, North Korea said Mr. Kim had personally ordered Mr. Fowle’s release after considering requests from President Obama. With Mr. Obama traveling to Beijing next month for a meeting of Pacific Rim leaders, that could be interpreted as an olive branch to both the United States and China, which is fed up with Pyongyang’s provocations but weary of American demands to pressure its hermetic neighbor. | On Wednesday, North Korea said Mr. Kim had personally ordered Mr. Fowle’s release after considering requests from President Obama. With Mr. Obama traveling to Beijing next month for a meeting of Pacific Rim leaders, that could be interpreted as an olive branch to both the United States and China, which is fed up with Pyongyang’s provocations but weary of American demands to pressure its hermetic neighbor. |
| “This is either Kim Jong-un on his own, or the people around him saying, ‘We’ve got to change this paradigm, because it is not working,’ ” said Joseph R. DeTrani, a longtime C.I.A. official who specialized in North Korea and is now the president of the Intelligence and National Security Alliance, an industry group. | |
| Secretary of State John Kerry took note of the shift in the diplomatic winds. On a visit this week to Germany, where he was marking the 25th anniversary of the fall of another Cold War relic, the Berlin Wall, he said, “We hope that the dynamics can develop in the next weeks, months perhaps, where we could get back to talks.” | |
| “The United States is absolutely prepared to do that,” he added. “We’ve said from Day 1 that if North Korea wants to rejoin the community of nations, it knows how to do it.” | “The United States is absolutely prepared to do that,” he added. “We’ve said from Day 1 that if North Korea wants to rejoin the community of nations, it knows how to do it.” |
| Mr. Kerry insisted that there was no quid pro quo for Mr. Fowle’s release, while other American officials played down any suggestion that the United States saw an opening for engagement. North Korea policy, they said, has not changed: There will be no return to negotiations unless Pyongyang commits to relinquishing its nuclear arsenal. | |
| Though the United States won the release of Mr. Fowle, an Ohio municipal worker who was arrested after leaving a Bible at a bar, it is still demanding the release of two other Americans: Kenneth Bae, who has been sentenced to 15 years of hard labor after being accused of plotting to overthrow the government; and Matthew Todd Miller, who was given six years of hard labor after being charged with spying. | |
| Divining North Korea’s intentions, of course, is a fool’s game. Nobody is even sure why its supreme leader vanished from the public eye for 40 days. The prevailing theory is that he had some kind of surgery on his ankle or leg. Reports that he was injured in a car accident briefly circulated in South Korea, though Mr. DeTrani said he had his doubts. “I’ve been to Pyongyang, and there aren’t a lot of cars on the road,” he said. | Divining North Korea’s intentions, of course, is a fool’s game. Nobody is even sure why its supreme leader vanished from the public eye for 40 days. The prevailing theory is that he had some kind of surgery on his ankle or leg. Reports that he was injured in a car accident briefly circulated in South Korea, though Mr. DeTrani said he had his doubts. “I’ve been to Pyongyang, and there aren’t a lot of cars on the road,” he said. |
| Guessing whether Mr. Kim is trying another in a series of charm offensives that eventually burn out, or seeking a genuine shift in North Korea’s relations with the world, is all but impossible. | Guessing whether Mr. Kim is trying another in a series of charm offensives that eventually burn out, or seeking a genuine shift in North Korea’s relations with the world, is all but impossible. |
| Still, his actions could revive a debate over North Korea policy inside the White House that has been dormant since 2012, when the United States made a brief, ill-fated bid for a deal with Pyongyang. The administration has returned to its policy, known as “strategic patience,” which can be summed up as trying to outlast the regime by granting it no concessions upfront and staying in sync with North Korea’s neighbors. | Still, his actions could revive a debate over North Korea policy inside the White House that has been dormant since 2012, when the United States made a brief, ill-fated bid for a deal with Pyongyang. The administration has returned to its policy, known as “strategic patience,” which can be summed up as trying to outlast the regime by granting it no concessions upfront and staying in sync with North Korea’s neighbors. |
| The trouble is, those countries may be softening their stances, too. South Korea warily welcomed North Korea’s No. 2 official, Hwang Pyong-so, when he turned up at the Asian Games. Japan’s prime minister, Shinzo Abe, is exploring direct talks with Pyongyang on the fraught issue of Japanese citizens who were abducted by North Korea in the 1970s and ’80s. | The trouble is, those countries may be softening their stances, too. South Korea warily welcomed North Korea’s No. 2 official, Hwang Pyong-so, when he turned up at the Asian Games. Japan’s prime minister, Shinzo Abe, is exploring direct talks with Pyongyang on the fraught issue of Japanese citizens who were abducted by North Korea in the 1970s and ’80s. |
| China has long encouraged the United States to keep talking to North Korea, even as President Xi Jinping has grown deeply restless with the young dictator next door, snubbing him in July by visiting South Korea on his first presidential visit to the Korean Peninsula. For Mr. Xi, a return to diplomacy with North Korea would be a tangible accomplishment of his meeting with Mr. Obama at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum in Beijing. | China has long encouraged the United States to keep talking to North Korea, even as President Xi Jinping has grown deeply restless with the young dictator next door, snubbing him in July by visiting South Korea on his first presidential visit to the Korean Peninsula. For Mr. Xi, a return to diplomacy with North Korea would be a tangible accomplishment of his meeting with Mr. Obama at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum in Beijing. |
| “The American missionary is a pawn in a larger game,” said Michael J. Green, who served as a senior adviser on Asia during the George W. Bush administration. Mr. Fowle’s release, he said, “may have been done in that context to ease the Americans and others back to a less-conditional resumption of the talks, which Pyongyang will argue is de facto acceptance of their new nuclear weapons status.” | “The American missionary is a pawn in a larger game,” said Michael J. Green, who served as a senior adviser on Asia during the George W. Bush administration. Mr. Fowle’s release, he said, “may have been done in that context to ease the Americans and others back to a less-conditional resumption of the talks, which Pyongyang will argue is de facto acceptance of their new nuclear weapons status.” |
| Like many North Korea watchers, Mr. Green said he was dubious that Mr. Kim would ever give up his nuclear weapons. If the administration shifted to a policy of engagement, he said, that could provoke Republicans in Congress, who are already worried that the United States will offer too many concessions to seal a nuclear agreement with Iran. | Like many North Korea watchers, Mr. Green said he was dubious that Mr. Kim would ever give up his nuclear weapons. If the administration shifted to a policy of engagement, he said, that could provoke Republicans in Congress, who are already worried that the United States will offer too many concessions to seal a nuclear agreement with Iran. |
| “It’s a tricky game for the administration,” he said. | “It’s a tricky game for the administration,” he said. |
| Given how little anyone knows about the cane-wielding Mr. Kim, the only sensible response may be to wait — not that this will stop the theories from the opinionated fraternity of North Korea watchers. | Given how little anyone knows about the cane-wielding Mr. Kim, the only sensible response may be to wait — not that this will stop the theories from the opinionated fraternity of North Korea watchers. |
| “It’s amazing how all these people who talk about how mysterious North Korea is seem so sure about what they are doing,” said Joel S. Wit, the founder of 38North, a website that follows the country. | “It’s amazing how all these people who talk about how mysterious North Korea is seem so sure about what they are doing,” said Joel S. Wit, the founder of 38North, a website that follows the country. |