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'Messy compromise' expected on EU climate targets | 'Messy compromise' expected on EU climate targets |
(about 7 hours later) | |
EU leaders are meeting in Brussels to try and agree the Union's climate and energy targets for 2030. | EU leaders are meeting in Brussels to try and agree the Union's climate and energy targets for 2030. |
A plan to cut CO2 by 40% from 1990 levels is on the table as well as new targets for renewables and energy efficiency. | A plan to cut CO2 by 40% from 1990 levels is on the table as well as new targets for renewables and energy efficiency. |
There is significant opposition from Eastern Europe with Poland threatening to veto the measures. | There is significant opposition from Eastern Europe with Poland threatening to veto the measures. |
However a compromise is expected with British officials "quietly confident" that a deal will be done. | However a compromise is expected with British officials "quietly confident" that a deal will be done. |
Europe is seen as a global leader in cutting carbon - and the EU is committed to reducing CO2 by 80-95% by 2050. | Europe is seen as a global leader in cutting carbon - and the EU is committed to reducing CO2 by 80-95% by 2050. |
But the 2030 targets are seen as an important signal to the rest of the world. | But the 2030 targets are seen as an important signal to the rest of the world. |
If they are accepted, they will boost the chances of a new UN deal on climate being agreed in Paris next year. | If they are accepted, they will boost the chances of a new UN deal on climate being agreed in Paris next year. |
There are some significant hurdles to be overcome. | There are some significant hurdles to be overcome. |
With 90% of their energy coming from coal, the proposal to cut 40% of carbon emissions is being vocally opposed by Poland. | |
The country's new Prime Minister Ewa Kopacz has made it clear she will use her veto if there is no compromise. | The country's new Prime Minister Ewa Kopacz has made it clear she will use her veto if there is no compromise. |
"This issue actually concerns all Poles, because everyone uses electricity," said Mrs Kopacz, speaking to reporters last week. | "This issue actually concerns all Poles, because everyone uses electricity," said Mrs Kopacz, speaking to reporters last week. |
"That is why, if our conditions are not satisfied, I will have to make a radical move, even though this will be my first summit." | "That is why, if our conditions are not satisfied, I will have to make a radical move, even though this will be my first summit." |
A leaked draft of the agreement suggests that Poland's concerns could be assuaged by a plan to give poorer countries 10% of the Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) allowances. | A leaked draft of the agreement suggests that Poland's concerns could be assuaged by a plan to give poorer countries 10% of the Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) allowances. |
These can then be sold to raise funds to help the transition to low carbon power production. | These can then be sold to raise funds to help the transition to low carbon power production. |
As a result, most analysts believe that the headline cut will go through. | As a result, most analysts believe that the headline cut will go through. |
"It seems certain that EU heads of state will agree on a target to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 40%," said Brook Riley, from Friends of the Earth in Brussels. | "It seems certain that EU heads of state will agree on a target to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 40%," said Brook Riley, from Friends of the Earth in Brussels. |
"They will try and pass that off as ambitious but the fact is that it means a 50:50 chance of crossing the 2C temperature threshold." | "They will try and pass that off as ambitious but the fact is that it means a 50:50 chance of crossing the 2C temperature threshold." |
Efficiency impact | Efficiency impact |
However, finding agreement on renewables and energy efficiency is likely to prove more difficult. | However, finding agreement on renewables and energy efficiency is likely to prove more difficult. |
The European Commission has proposed that a 30% target for energy savings and a 27% target for green power. There is also speculation the efficiency could also be reduced to 27%. | The European Commission has proposed that a 30% target for energy savings and a 27% target for green power. There is also speculation the efficiency could also be reduced to 27%. |
There are strong arguments about all these numbers. While a few percentage points either way might not seem like a big deal, according to research carried out for the Commission it could be hugely significant. | There are strong arguments about all these numbers. While a few percentage points either way might not seem like a big deal, according to research carried out for the Commission it could be hugely significant. |
A 25% target on efficiency would reduce EU gas imports by just 9% - but increasing the target to 30% would see the same imports drop by over a fifth! | A 25% target on efficiency would reduce EU gas imports by just 9% - but increasing the target to 30% would see the same imports drop by over a fifth! |
The UK is opposing any raising of the efficiency target. Friends of the Earth believes Mr Cameron's resolve is being stiffened by domestic concerns about UKIP. | The UK is opposing any raising of the efficiency target. Friends of the Earth believes Mr Cameron's resolve is being stiffened by domestic concerns about UKIP. |
"There's no getting away from the fact that Cameron is selling out efficiency and renewables targets to try and prevent a Farage backlash," said Brook Riley. | "There's no getting away from the fact that Cameron is selling out efficiency and renewables targets to try and prevent a Farage backlash," said Brook Riley. |
Countries including Portugal and Ireland are making arguments for special treatment. Portugal wants greater flexibility so it can export huge surpluses of renewables to other countries. | Countries including Portugal and Ireland are making arguments for special treatment. Portugal wants greater flexibility so it can export huge surpluses of renewables to other countries. |
The Irish are asking that the country's ability to soak up extra carbon in bogland and forest should be taken into account when calculating emissions. | The Irish are asking that the country's ability to soak up extra carbon in bogland and forest should be taken into account when calculating emissions. |
Denmark and a number of other countries are seeking to have emissions from transport included in the ETS. Some experts believe that with so many unused allowances in the scheme, such a move would have little impact. | Denmark and a number of other countries are seeking to have emissions from transport included in the ETS. Some experts believe that with so many unused allowances in the scheme, such a move would have little impact. |
"If these countries are serious about reducing transport emissions they should go for fuel efficiency standards," said William Todts from the campaign group, Transport & Environment. | "If these countries are serious about reducing transport emissions they should go for fuel efficiency standards," said William Todts from the campaign group, Transport & Environment. |
"These are already reducing emissions from new cars by 40% between 2008 and 2021 - it's crazy to move to a system that doesn't really work." | "These are already reducing emissions from new cars by 40% between 2008 and 2021 - it's crazy to move to a system that doesn't really work." |
Discussions in Brussels are likely to go into night, although some form of compromise is expected. | Discussions in Brussels are likely to go into night, although some form of compromise is expected. |
Observers argue that the significance of what will be agreed shouldn't be underestimated, whatever the drawbacks. | Observers argue that the significance of what will be agreed shouldn't be underestimated, whatever the drawbacks. |
"We obviously need to do more to achieve the 2C target. This alone, is not going to get us there," said William Todts. | "We obviously need to do more to achieve the 2C target. This alone, is not going to get us there," said William Todts. |
"Even if it is a messy compromise, it is better than what the Chinese and the Americans are doing." | "Even if it is a messy compromise, it is better than what the Chinese and the Americans are doing." |
Follow Matt on Twitter @mattmcgrathbbc. | Follow Matt on Twitter @mattmcgrathbbc. |
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