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Why you shouldn’t ignore the Middle East’s other epic crisis Why you shouldn’t ignore the Middle East’s other epic crisis
(about 3 hours later)
In September, when President Obama unveiled his plans to step up air attacks against the Islamic State, he cited the supposed success of U.S. operations in Yemen as an example of American air power subduing terror threats. That "success," as WorldViews wrote earlier, is questionable.In September, when President Obama unveiled his plans to step up air attacks against the Islamic State, he cited the supposed success of U.S. operations in Yemen as an example of American air power subduing terror threats. That "success," as WorldViews wrote earlier, is questionable.
What's less in doubt is that Yemen is in serious crisis, torn apart by a mess of warring, insurgent factions, including al-Qaeda. The country's weak government has been unable to cope. Here's what you need to know.What's less in doubt is that Yemen is in serious crisis, torn apart by a mess of warring, insurgent factions, including al-Qaeda. The country's weak government has been unable to cope. Here's what you need to know.
Yemen could become a failed stateYemen could become a failed state
This is not a new fear in the nation's turbulent history. But the current moment is particularly dire. A long-running rebellion waged by the Shiite Houthis in the country's north has gained astonishing ground in recent weeks. Houthi militias have overrun a significant swath of territory, including Yemen's capital Sanaa. Government forces melted away, and the Houthis are now engaging in bloody battles with Sunni tribesmen, some of whom are connected to al-Qaeda. The terrorist organization's most capable wing is based in Yemen. This is not a new fear, given the nation's turbulent history. But the current moment is particularly dire. A long-running rebellion waged by the Shiite Houthis in the country's north has gained astonishing ground in recent weeks. Houthi militias have overrun a significant swath of territory, including Yemen's capital Sanaa. Government forces melted away, and the Houthis are now engaging in bloody battles with Sunni tribesmen, some of whom are connected to al-Qaeda. The terrorist organization's most capable wing is based in Yemen.
Hundreds have been killed in the past month of fighting, which shows no sign of letting up. A U.N.-brokered peace deal signed last month between the Houthis and the Yemeni government has unraveled. President Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi presides over a toothless coalition government, which has struggled to exert its influence in the wake of the 2011 resignation of President Ali Abdullah Saleh, a strongman who had ruled for more than three decades in Sanaa.Hundreds have been killed in the past month of fighting, which shows no sign of letting up. A U.N.-brokered peace deal signed last month between the Houthis and the Yemeni government has unraveled. President Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi presides over a toothless coalition government, which has struggled to exert its influence in the wake of the 2011 resignation of President Ali Abdullah Saleh, a strongman who had ruled for more than three decades in Sanaa.
People power protests and political chaos compelled Saleh to step away from power and saw Yemen join the ranks of the Arab Spring. But its bloom faded fast, and the country's many divisions and dysfunctions persist. Some experts now fear the disintegration of the state into warring fiefdoms, or a return to authoritarianism, perhaps even in the form of Saleh's son. All the while, Yemen remains one of the Arab world's most impoverished countries, wracked by a severe water crisis that has even more worrying implications than the current violence.People power protests and political chaos compelled Saleh to step away from power and saw Yemen join the ranks of the Arab Spring. But its bloom faded fast, and the country's many divisions and dysfunctions persist. Some experts now fear the disintegration of the state into warring fiefdoms, or a return to authoritarianism, perhaps even in the form of Saleh's son. All the while, Yemen remains one of the Arab world's most impoverished countries, wracked by a severe water crisis that has even more worrying implications than the current violence.
There is a dangerous sectarian dimension to the violenceThere is a dangerous sectarian dimension to the violence
The Houthis are alleged to be Iranian-backed; their traditional slogan ("Death to America! Death to Israel!") echoes that of Hezbollah, Iran's Shiite proxy in Lebanon. Al-Qaeda and its Sunni allies have energetically taken the fight to the Houthis, giving the conflict a worrisome sectarian edge -- one that is similar to the awful bloodshed wracking Syria and Iraq.The Houthis are alleged to be Iranian-backed; their traditional slogan ("Death to America! Death to Israel!") echoes that of Hezbollah, Iran's Shiite proxy in Lebanon. Al-Qaeda and its Sunni allies have energetically taken the fight to the Houthis, giving the conflict a worrisome sectarian edge -- one that is similar to the awful bloodshed wracking Syria and Iraq.
But like in Syria and Iraq, the situation is not that simple. The Houthis are from the Zaydi branch, a distinct sect of Shiite Islam that is closer to Sunni Islam than most. And, as Silvana Toska, a Middle East researcher, notes, the Houthis' growing clout isn't a matter of strength of arms or religious zeal. Away from their stronghold in Yemen's northwest, they have links to separatists in the country's south and have won the support of many Yemenis elsewhere "who view them as a real opposition to the elites that is untainted by corruption," writes Toska.But like in Syria and Iraq, the situation is not that simple. The Houthis are from the Zaydi branch, a distinct sect of Shiite Islam that is closer to Sunni Islam than most. And, as Silvana Toska, a Middle East researcher, notes, the Houthis' growing clout isn't a matter of strength of arms or religious zeal. Away from their stronghold in Yemen's northwest, they have links to separatists in the country's south and have won the support of many Yemenis elsewhere "who view them as a real opposition to the elites that is untainted by corruption," writes Toska.
There are also suggestions that Sunni regimes in the Gulf have tacitly backed the Houthi surge, seeing it as the best bet for stability in perennially fractious Yemen.There are also suggestions that Sunni regimes in the Gulf have tacitly backed the Houthi surge, seeing it as the best bet for stability in perennially fractious Yemen.
Whatever the case, a narrative of sectarian violence plays into al-Qaeda's hands. Some elements of the Yemeni branch also declared support for the Islamic State, extremists who butcher all those they consider heretics or apostates. Things could very well get worse before they get any better.Whatever the case, a narrative of sectarian violence plays into al-Qaeda's hands. Some elements of the Yemeni branch also declared support for the Islamic State, extremists who butcher all those they consider heretics or apostates. Things could very well get worse before they get any better.
The risk of spilloverThe risk of spillover
Yemen's problems don't stay there, as the United States knows well following a string of botched terror attacks that emanated from al-Qaeda's Yemeni redoubts. The havoc could echo in the larger region. "With immediate proximity to Saudi Arabia, the Bab al-Mandab Strait, and the Horn of Africa, a collapse in Yemen will have a profound effect on its neighbors," writes Jon Alterman at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.Yemen's problems don't stay there, as the United States knows well following a string of botched terror attacks that emanated from al-Qaeda's Yemeni redoubts. The havoc could echo in the larger region. "With immediate proximity to Saudi Arabia, the Bab al-Mandab Strait, and the Horn of Africa, a collapse in Yemen will have a profound effect on its neighbors," writes Jon Alterman at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
For years now, the United States has tried to subdue terror threats in Yemen from the air, while, along with the Saudis, pushing for mediation and an inclusive political process. U.S. agencies have allegedly carried out dozens of drone strikes in the country, which critics say occur in a realm of murky legality.For years now, the United States has tried to subdue terror threats in Yemen from the air, while, along with the Saudis, pushing for mediation and an inclusive political process. U.S. agencies have allegedly carried out dozens of drone strikes in the country, which critics say occur in a realm of murky legality.
There's little evidence that these efforts have achieved much on the ground. "Yemen’s problems follow many years of precisely the kinds of international mediation and support backed by targeted strikes that are being proposed for other Arab conflicts," writes Alterman, referring to U.S. plans to stabilize Syria and Iraq. "What does it mean when a prime example of what Western countries and their allies have been trying to do has descended into more chaos?"There's little evidence that these efforts have achieved much on the ground. "Yemen’s problems follow many years of precisely the kinds of international mediation and support backed by targeted strikes that are being proposed for other Arab conflicts," writes Alterman, referring to U.S. plans to stabilize Syria and Iraq. "What does it mean when a prime example of what Western countries and their allies have been trying to do has descended into more chaos?"