European Rugby Champions Cup: why English clubs benefit from new format

http://www.theguardian.com/sport/blog/2014/oct/16/european-rugby-champions-cup-english-clubs-new-format-toulon-northampton

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The emperor’s new clothes? Mutton dressed as English lamb? As the inaugural edition of the European Rugby Champions Cup prepares for lift-off there are still those clinging to half-empty glasses of Heineken and muttering darkly about change and progress being two different things. We will soon find out but it is undeniably true that, in a couple of key respects, Europe’s flagship competition is not what it used to be.

Not everyone, in particular, seems to have examined how the new-look European cup will vary from its predecessor where it matters most: on the field. Whether the tournament’s makeover is good for all continues to be debated but the familiar rhythms of qualification criteria and variable pool quality are gone. Lose your first three games in the old era and your campaign was instantly over. Now it is not quite that simple.

Here’s why. Instead of 24 teams in six pools there are now 20 in five pools, a subtle distinction with big ramifications for knockout qualification. With a third runner-up slot available and competition ratcheted up, winning a mere three pool games could now be enough to reach the last eight if a side collects sufficient bonus points en route.

Secure three high-scoring home wins, for example, lose all your away games narrowly and – for the first time under the existing scoring system – 18 match points could still see you through. Last year the third “fastest loser” would have been Northampton with 17. This could, theoretically, lead to teams being more negative on the road, setting out merely to secure the equivalent of a Champions League away goal. Expect plenty of kicking the ball into the stands from teams prepared to concede the battle on the night in pursuit of winning the war.

Then there is the Italian factor. Instead of two pools skewed by moderate Italian sides there is now just the one. Again it is a small tweak but the ripples will be significant. All five pools now contain at least three sides with viable hopes of reaching the last eight, not always the case in the past. Take Pool 1: Munster, Saracens, Clermont Auvergne and Sale Sharks. The monster-truck era has well and truly arrived.

Who will this heavyweight reality benefit? Potentially the English. This has been the most competitive start to a Premiership season in the professional era and their leading clubs already boast a more battle-hardened look. Northampton, Bath and Saracens also now have the deeper squads required to match the French and will supply the majority of the England squad due to be announced on Wednesday. While Clermont have reportedly sold a mere 33 tickets for their trip to Sarries and just three of the French contenders currently feature in the top six of the Top 14, the English are in perkier shape than usual.

Saints, handily positioned in Pool 5 with Racing Métro, Ospreys and Treviso, are the best placed of all, strong up front and increasingly smart behind. Wasps, if they can replicate the kind of forward momentum which enabled them to go 29-0 up against Bath in the first 50 minutes of last weekend’s remarkable game in High Wycombe, could also pose problems in Pool 2 if they start well in their opening fixture in Dublin. While it always takes a good side to defeat Leinster, the Irish province have lost to Connacht and Munster in the Pro12 this season and will be without some influential men in the retired Brian O’Driscoll and the injured totems Sean O’Brien and Cian Healy.

Munster, likewise, will find Saracens in full wolf-pack mode, particularly on their artificial pitch at Allianz Park which will be unfamiliar to their visitors from Ireland and France. Clermont may lead the Top 14 but they had 51 points stuck on them in Bordeaux earlier this month and now that their former coach Vern Cotter has taken on the Scotland job they face a rebuilding period.

Ulster will also miss the injured Ruan Pienaar and the departed Johann Muller and John Afoa but their visit to Leicester this weekend will still be fascinating – conquering the currently sluggish Tigers would establish them and Toulon as the main threats in Pool 3. It is harder to see either of the two Welsh representatives, the Ospreys and the Scarlets, having the depth of squad or forward power to reach the last eight but the Ospreys’ unbeaten start to the Pro12 season at least offers encouragement that they can escape their pool for the first time since 2009-10.

Glasgow, too, have a gritty togetherness and increasing confidence. They will also recall the 2008-09 season when they won in Toulouse and lost a thriller 35-31 in Bath; both those opponents are in their pool again.

Yet put it all together and the breakfast tea-leaves still indicate an improved English display in Europe, which no Premiership side has won since 2007. Northampton did not win last year’s domestic title by accident and, in George North and Samu Manoa, they have two of the continent’s most irresistible ball-carriers.

For better or worse it is even possible to imagine a posse of four English clubs – Saints, Sarries, Bath and Wasps – and perhaps just one French side in the last eight. Changing times, indeed, although Toulon remain the side to beat as they pursue a third successive title. A Toulon v Northampton final at Twickenham in May would not be a complete shock.