This article is from the source 'guardian' and was first published or seen on . It last changed over 40 days ago and won't be checked again for changes.

You can find the current article at its original source at http://www.theguardian.com/world/defence-and-security-blog/2014/oct/13/putin-uk-ukraine-nato

The article has changed 2 times. There is an RSS feed of changes available.

Version 0 Version 1
Putin's Russia is weak - the UK in many ways is stronger Putin's Russia is weak - the UK in many ways is stronger
(7 months later)
Russia is weak. It is not in any relevant, meaningful, sense, a "Great Power".Russia is weak. It is not in any relevant, meaningful, sense, a "Great Power".
Indeed, it is less powerful in many ways, than Britain.Indeed, it is less powerful in many ways, than Britain.
The message may not be welcomed by Nato and hawks in the west.The message may not be welcomed by Nato and hawks in the west.
But it came, refreshingly, from one of Britain's most distinguished military historians.But it came, refreshingly, from one of Britain's most distinguished military historians.
"Russia has always tried to get over its weakness by exaggerating its strength", said professor Sir Lawrence Freedman. The western commentariat played along with it, and denounced Barack Obama for being weak."Russia has always tried to get over its weakness by exaggerating its strength", said professor Sir Lawrence Freedman. The western commentariat played along with it, and denounced Barack Obama for being weak.
"Keep Putin in perspective; don't play to the cult of personality", Freedman warned. "Russia is less powerful in many respects than the UK", he added. It does have larger armed forces and more nukes, but its economy is in deep trouble. "Keep Putin in perspective; don't play to the cult of personality", Freedman warned. "Russia is less powerful in many respects than the UK", he added. It does have larger armed forces and more nukes, but its economy is in deep trouble.
Freedman was speaking the other day at a conference on "Global Trends and Implications for British Security" at the Royal United Services Institute (Rusi).Freedman was speaking the other day at a conference on "Global Trends and Implications for British Security" at the Royal United Services Institute (Rusi).
Russia may be a "Great Power" by virtue of its nuclear arsenal and permanent seat on the UN security council, but being a "Great Power" was highly overrated, he suggested.Russia may be a "Great Power" by virtue of its nuclear arsenal and permanent seat on the UN security council, but being a "Great Power" was highly overrated, he suggested.
It may have started to rebuild its armed forces, but they are no match for Nato's. Russia's GDP is close to that of Italy, and its per capita GDP is less than Poland's. Oil and gas prices have fallen and Russia is having trouble attracting inward investment.It may have started to rebuild its armed forces, but they are no match for Nato's. Russia's GDP is close to that of Italy, and its per capita GDP is less than Poland's. Oil and gas prices have fallen and Russia is having trouble attracting inward investment.
Relations between Ukraine and Russia are far from settled, yet already the Kremlin is realising it is one thing to annex territory - in this case, Crimea- quite another to administer it effectively and maintain law and order.Relations between Ukraine and Russia are far from settled, yet already the Kremlin is realising it is one thing to annex territory - in this case, Crimea- quite another to administer it effectively and maintain law and order.
Freedman has expanded on his theme on the War on the Rocks website.Freedman has expanded on his theme on the War on the Rocks website.
Aggressive rhetoric by western political leaders serves in a sense only to appease Putin since those same leaders, and notably Obama himself, have said there can be no "military solution" to the Ukraine crisis. British defence officials say Ukraine's membership of Nato is a long way off, if it is ever admitted to the military alliance.Aggressive rhetoric by western political leaders serves in a sense only to appease Putin since those same leaders, and notably Obama himself, have said there can be no "military solution" to the Ukraine crisis. British defence officials say Ukraine's membership of Nato is a long way off, if it is ever admitted to the military alliance.
Western leaders, as this blog has suggested before, needs better intelligence, more imagination. Senior Nato commanders admit that they were slow to recognise what was going on in Ukraine.Western leaders, as this blog has suggested before, needs better intelligence, more imagination. Senior Nato commanders admit that they were slow to recognise what was going on in Ukraine.
One contributor to the Rusi conference defended the failure to predict such huge events as the Arab Spring or the fall of the Soviet Union. "The future hasn't happened so how can you have intelligence about it?", he said.One contributor to the Rusi conference defended the failure to predict such huge events as the Arab Spring or the fall of the Soviet Union. "The future hasn't happened so how can you have intelligence about it?", he said.
Intelligence services and independent analysts are paid, not to predict the future, but at least advise and warn political and military what is likely to happen, and why.Intelligence services and independent analysts are paid, not to predict the future, but at least advise and warn political and military what is likely to happen, and why.