German business confidence slides again; French unemployment finally drops- business live
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Version 0 of 1. 8.02pm BST20:02 That's all, folks, And finally, Reuters sums it up: French jobless total posts rare fall in August The French jobless total eased back in August from a record high reached in July, breaking a nine month streak of increases and offering President Francois Hollande a rare glimmer of hope on the unemployment front. The Labour Ministry said the jobless total in mainland France fell by 11,100 to 3,413,300, down 0.3 percent over one month, but up 5.1 percent over one year. The fall was the first decrease in since October 2013. Hollande has seen his popularity fall to record lows for a modern French leader as he failed to live up to promises to get unemployment falling. See earlier post for more details and reaction. Bonne nuit, et que vous voyez dans la matinée. GW 7.38pm BST19:38 France24 reminds us what French ministers plans to do to bring growth and jobs to its stubbornly stagnant economy: The government’s plan to cure the patient is the much-vaunted but controversial “Responsibility Pact”, which will cut social charges for businesses by 40 billion euros ($52 billion) in exchange for them creating 500,000 jobs by 2017. But the public spending reductions planned to pay for these tax cuts are very unpopular with some on the left. Updated at 8.03pm BST 7.25pm BST19:25 France’s labour minister, Francois Rebsamen, also said tonight that Paris will push ahead with its pro-business reform programme of tax and spending cuts; designed to create growth which is “rich in employment” 7.05pm BST19:05 In other labour market news: Elmas in Sardinia, Italy, has found an original way to cut unemployment: pay people to leave http://t.co/dkss6NoPLV 6.48pm BST18:48 Writing in the FT, Hugh Carnegy says tonight’s jobless figures are the first good news about the French economy since a hoped-for return to growth this year failed to materialise. The plunge in Mr Hollande’s approval ratings to as low as 13 per cent, according to recent polls, was partly prompted by his unfulfilled promise to reverse by the end of last year the upward trend in unemployment, which stands above 10 per cent of the workforce. Instead, it kept on rising throughout the first half of this year and is up by 500,000 since he took office in mid-2012. Updated at 7.16pm BST 6.39pm BST18:39 French unemployment falls for first time in 2014 Some late news from France -- the jobless total has, at long last, dropped. Official statistics from the Labour Ministry showed there are were 3.41 million people claiming jobless benefits in France in August. That’s a drop of 0.3%, or 11,100, compared with July; the first month-on-month drop since October 2013. A rare piece of encouraging economic news for the French government, after yesterday’s PMI surveys showed its private sector contracting again. In a statement, labour minister François Rebsamen was cautious: “I take note of this drop, but I consider, as I have said several times, that monthly figures should only be interpreted over the long term.” And as fastFT flags up, economists say France isn’t out of the woods. Dominique Barbet of BNP Paribas said “we take this good news with a pinch of salt”. He reckons unemployment fell because more people are being employed to look after French school children in the afternoon after a timetabling change. Barbet explains: The reorganisation of the working time in French primary schools has required the hiring of many people to look after the kids in the later part of the afternoon. And the jobless total is still much higher than a year ago: The wider measure of French unemployment rose 6.0% Y/Y in August to 5.08m The news comes as France’s main business group urged the government to scrap the 35-hour work week, raise the legal retirement age and cut the minimum wage. Medef said the move would help tackle France’s high unemployment and stimulate growth. More details here. 5.23pm BST17:23 European markets break losing streak Soothing words from ECB president Mario Draghi about the central bank keeping monetary policy loose for an extended period, as well as better than expected US new home sales, have pushed markets into positive territory after recent declines, writes Nick Fletcher. There are of course still many concerns, not least worries about the outlook for the eurozone and Chinese economies, as well as the repercussions of US air strikes on Isis in Syria. But for now the mood was a little more positive, and the closing scores showed: In the US, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is currently 81 points or 0.48% higher. On that note, it’s time to close up for the evening. Thanks for all your comments, and we’ll be back again tomorrow. Updated at 5.53pm BST 5.08pm BST17:08 Here’s more detail from Standard & Poor’s on Tesco: We are placing our ‘BBB/A-2’ long- and short-term corporate credit ratings on Tesco PLC on CreditWatch with negative implications. We plan to resolve our CreditWatch placement when the findings of the independent investigation are available and the implications for Tesco’s management, governance, profitability, and financials are clearer. Our assessment of Tesco’s financial risk profile as “significant” takes into account Tesco’s sizable debt on a lease- and pension-adjusted basis. Despite capital expenditure (capex) and dividend savings, we forecast the decline in profits will significantly weaken credit metrics...Management’s commitment to maintain investment-grade credit ratings--demonstrated by its recent financial policy decisions about capex and, more importantly, shareholder remuneration—provides us some support in our assessment of the financial risk profile. However, continued weakening of credit protection metrics could cause us to lower the financial risk profile to “aggressive”. 4.37pm BST16:37 More bad news for Tesco as Standard & Poor’s became the latest agency to put the supermarket’s credit rating on negative watch. S&P revised down its management and governance assessment for Tesco from satisfactory to fair, and said it expected the supermarket’s profitability would continue to weaken as market competition in the UK remained high. Updated at 5.08pm BST 3.39pm BST15:39 US new home sales have hit a six year high, according to the Commerce department. Sales of new single family homes jumped 18% in August to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 504,000. This is the second straight month of gains, with July’s data revised upwards to show a 1.9% gain compared to the previously reported 2.4% drop. The August number is much better than analysts’ expectations of an increase to 430,00.0. Helped by the housing figures, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has edged up by around 9 points, although investors are still cautious given various concerns about the global economy, and the US airstrikes against Isis in Syria. Updated at 4.17pm BST 3.21pm BST15:21 A quick catch-up Recap time. Concern is growing over the state of Germany’s economy after confidence among business leaders fell to its lowest in over a year. Geopolitical tensions, and the weakness of the wider European economy, are hitting its firms. IFO, the Munich thinktank, warned that exports looking more disappointing, adding: “The German economy is no longer running smoothly.” Full details start here ING reckons the deteriorating confidence means the Bundesbank will stop opposing the European Central Bank’s efforts to stimulate the euro area. Saxo Bank warned that Germany’s growth is moderating. IHS Global Insight says the conflicts in Eastern Ukraine and the Middle East are having a more serious impact on German firms than expected. And Berenberg fears that the drop in confidence will mean firms rein in their investments: Germany: Ifo expectations drop bad news for investment. http://t.co/tHdoGTah7U pic.twitter.com/teLK3ohVje The financial markets, though, are taking the news well; reassured by a pledge from ECB chief Mario Draghi to do everything possible to fight deflation. Here’s the transcript The Moscow market is up, on hopes that the tensions over Ukraine could ease. Obama: U.S. Will Lift Sanctions If Russia Chooses Path Of Peace Russia’s Micex Index Rises 1.1% A profit warning from TNT Express, blamed on the weak European economy, is weighing on investors. The company’s shares are down over 10% this afternoon. In other news: Sir Philip Hampton is expected to be named as GSK’s chairman soon. Dublin house prices are up almost 25% in the last year Britain’s accountancy watchdog has suggested that Tesco could be forced to restate historic financial results, after it overstated profits by £250m. It has also emerged that Tesco director Mark Armour, who also serves on the FRC, is being kept away from the scrutiny. 3.12pm BST15:12 Just to clarify, Richard Branson’s “take all the holiday you want’ offer applies to his own personal staff, not the entire Virgin Empire. They have to keep clocking in, alas. 3.01pm BST15:01 The US dollar is rallying in the foreign exchange markets - hitting its highest level against a basket of currencies since 2010. This has pushed the euro down below the $1.28 mark. 2.58pm BST14:58 Sky Sources say Royal Bank of Scotland chairman Sir Philip Hampton is to leave to chair GlaxoSmithKline 2.58pm BST14:58 Heads-up: Sky News sleuth Mark Kleinman reckons that pharmaceuticals firm GlaxoSmithKline will name Sir Philip Hampton, currently the chairman of Royal Bank of Scotland, as its next chairman before the weekend. That would end the uncertainty over GSK’s leadership once Sir Chris Gent steps down, and open a new debate over who will be chosen to fill the chairman’s seat at RBS after Hampton..... 2.46pm BST14:46 Back in the markets....Wall Street has opened calmly after three days of falls. The Dow Jones industrial average is up a teensy 10 points, or 0.08%, at 17067, and the S&P and Nasdaq also show small gains. U.S. stocks bounce back at the open; S&P rebounds after a 3-day slide pushed it to a 5-week low: http://t.co/OI6vLnI1nK Joao Monteiro, analyst at Valutrades, says the US markets are taking their lead from Asia, where markets finished broadly higher after an early dip. Arguably if prospects in Asia are looking a little more upbeat then the positive sentiment can be justified. 2.08pm BST14:08 Now here’s a thing...Sir Richard Branson has abolished the holiday allowance, declaring that staff at his private wealth management firm <tweaked> can take ‘as much holiday as they like’, as long as work doesn’t suffer... More here: Staff can take as much holiday as they like, says Richard Branson See you all in 2015.... Updated at 2.42pm BST 1.33pm BST13:33 El-Erian: I quit Pimco after missing too much of my daughter's life Here’s something for the parents among you to ponder. Mohamed El-Erian, who sensationally quit bond-trading giant Pimco in January last year , has now revealed the reasons behind his exit. And he says the trigger came from his daughter, aged 10, who handed him a list of more than 20 important events in her life which he had missed, while chasing profits at Pimco instead. He made the admission in an interview with Reuters: His reason for leaving is a cliche of departing executives: the wish to spend more time with family. El-Erian said that he decided it was more important to be a good dad than a good investor. He realized he needed a change in May 2013, after his then-10-year-old daughter wrote him a list of 22 milestone events in her life he had missed.... Updated at 1.43pm BST 1.21pm BST13:21 Allianz also reported that the record low interest rates in force across the eurozone has hurt German savers. Its Wealth Report states: Chief economist Michael Heise says: “Wealth development in Germany is truly mediocre in the truest sense of the word”. “At the same time, the Germans are above-average savers. But it is also the case that almost nobody invests quite as much money with banks as the Germans do, even though bank interest rates are far lower than in the rest of Europe. German savers would appear to be stuck in crisis mode and shying away from making investment decisions.” 1.17pm BST13:17 Lunchtime reading: the Allianz Global Wealth Report The number of people across the globe who can be categorised as “middle class” has swelled to almost one billion. That’s one finding from the latest Allianz Global Wealth Report, which our data blog editor, Alberto Nardelli, has been analysing. He writes: One of the most interesting sections in the report is on the growth of a global middle class - which is now nearing the one billion mark. Allianz defines this “wealth middle class” by taking the average global net per capita financial assets (€17,700 in 2013), as a basis, and then encompasses all individuals with assets corresponding to somewhere between 30% and 180% of this figure..... The share of the population that falls into the wealth middle class in global terms has doubled in Latin America, has almost trebled in eastern Europe and has increased seven-fold in Asia. But 3.5 billion people don’t own enough wealth to qualify: Here’s the full piece: Global middle class nears one billion mark 12.33pm BST12:33 Dublin house prices up 25% Houses in Dublin are now almost 25% more than a year ago as the Republic’s property market continues to recover. Henry McDonald writes: Ireland’s Central Statistic Office has revealed that house prices in the capital are 23.1 per cent higher than 2013. The CSO also report on Wednesday that apartment price are also on the rise with the cost a flat now more than 26 per cent compared to this time last year. Overall property prices are 2.3 per cent higher across the Republic than they were last year reflecting the strength of the Dublin property market compared to areas beyond the capital. But the CSO latest report also puts these latest rises in some proper context. It notes that house prices in Dublin are still nearly 40 per cent lower than their 2007 peak when the Celtic Tiger was still roaring. Apartments in the capital are still around 46 per cent lower than in the boom times. Nationally the CSO said residential properties in all other parts of Ireland are 45 per cent lower than in 2007. Those with long memories, though, may worry, Henry concludes: It was the nation’s obsession with rising property prices that fuelled an overheated market, prompting speculators and builders to borrow billions from Irish banks that in large part helped bust the Irish economy. 12.14pm BST12:14 IHS: Drop in German confidence appears to be sustained. Germany is suffering more than expected from the crisis in the Middle East, and events in Eastern Ukraine, says Timo Klein, senior German economist at IHS Global Insight. The winding back of the US Federal Reserve’s stimulus package is also hitting German firms, Klein reckons: German business confidence is being hurt by ongoing geopolitical concerns, especially about Ukraine/Russia and the IS threat in Iraq and Syria, and by problems that some emerging economies have with the US Fed’s shift towards less expansionary monetary policy. Klein fears that today’s drop in the IFO index is part of an ongoing trend: In September, the headline Ifo business climate index declined for the fifth consecutive month, thus reaching its lowest level since April 2013. The index fell from 106.3 to 104.7. This compares to the joint February and April interim high of 111.2 (last exceeded in mid-2011) and the starting level of the latest upward trend at 100.3 in October 2012. Unlike the two previous setbacks during this upward trend, namely in March/April 2013 (following Italian elections and Cypriot debt stand-off) and in October 2013 (concerns raised by the U.S. government shutdown and debt ceiling conflict), the current downward correction appears to be sustained. 11.25am BST11:25 Saxo: German growth will be moderate for a while Mads Koefoed, head of macro strategy at Saxo Bank, says the drop in German business confidence shows that its growth is “moderating”. He predicts modest growth this year, and in 2015: We expect the German economy to bounce back in Q3, led by investment, which was particularly weak in Q2 as much of the demand had been carried forward into Q1 due to unseasonably good weather (the opposite of the US). In spite of the expected bounce-back this quarter we do not expect the German economy to grow at anything more than a moderate rate in the coming quarters – as also suggested by IFO. We look for GDP growth of 1.4% this year and around 1.5% next year (below the current consensus expectation of 1.8%). That growth doesn’t feel like enough to haul the eurozone into a brighter future..... And here’s a handy chart from Saxo, showing the IFO index over the last decade: 11.22am BST11:22 European markets mixed TNT’s profit warning, and German business leaders’ increasing jitteriness hasn’t helped the mood in Europe’s stock markets. The main indices are mixed, with the FTSE 100 falling for the third day running: Chris Beauchamp, IG market analyst, says: Indices are still broadly lower as investors continue to fret about possible geopolitical flashpoints, while yet more poor German data confirmed the bleak outlook in Europe.... German IFO data was weaker once again, and while some of this is down to the Ukraine situation, the ongoing leaking of the periphery’s problems into the eurozone’s core nations is not going to help matters. Beauchamp adds that Mario Draghi’s declaration this morning that policy will remain loose has done little to reassure investors as: markets would much prefer action over fine words 11.02am BST11:02 Shares in TNT Express are now down 11.3% as its profits warning continues to reverberate around the Amsterdam stock market. Here’s our news story: TNT blames deepening eurozone woes for profit warning Updated at 11.02am BST 10.54am BST10:54 IFO: German economy no longer running smoothly Back to the latest drop in German business confidence. IFO, which reported that firms are gloomier about current conditions and future prospects, warned that: “The German economy is no longer running smoothly.” IFO also reckons that German’s traditional strength, exports, is suffering. President Hans-Werner Sinn Sinn warns: “hardly any stimulus is expected from export business.” If he’s right, that’s a good reason for Germany to do everything in its power to help the rest of the eurozone return to growth. ECB chied Mario Draghi touched on this issue in his interview with Europe1 this morning: Are there three or four words that symbolize your ambition for Europe? Draghi: First is investment. Private investment, but also public investment. Did you say it to Ms Merkel? Draghi: I did say so in Jackson Hole. Not to her, but to every country that has fiscal space. But the other thing that we have to remember is -- and I did say this before -- we have to restore confidence. Investors, entrepreneurs have to go back being confident in the future and in the resilience and robustness of Europe. 10.34am BST10:34 Reading between the lines of the FRC’s statement on Tesco, it may be hinting that the supermarket will be forced to take the humiliating step of restating historic statements. It will all depend how far back the accounting problems go. The £250m profit misreporting occurred in an unscheduled profit warning in late August, not a full-blown financial result statement. Over in the Telegraph, Graham Ruddick writes (£) that some analysts suspect the issue runs deeper.... Bruno Monteyne, analyst at Bernstein, warned that the practices that led to the accounting issue may have been going on for three years. He said: “These are not normal times for Tesco and as profits have declined over several years, Tesco has been pulling in all the favours it can get, without delivering yet the benefits. 10.16am BST10:16 FRC: Monitoring Tesco closely Back in the UK, the Financial Reporting Council, the accountancy watchdog, has confirmed that it is monitoring Tesco “closely” following Monday’s shock news that it overstated its profits by £250m. The FRC says: “The FRC has disciplinary powers in relation to misconduct by accountants and, through the Financial Reporting Review Panel, can also require a company to restate its financial statements. The FRC does not have powers to monitor or require restatement of unaudited trading statements. It will consider the outcome of the investigation announced by the company and determine whether it should take regulatory action.” We flagged up the FRC’s involvement last night. The Times’s Alistair Osborne isn’t impressed: Pointless stuff from Financial Reporting Council. It's just "monitoring" Tesco situation for now. Same FRC that let off a jailed fraudster. Tesco shares are down another 0.5% today at 193.1p, levels not seen since 2003. Updated at 11.01am BST 9.48am BST09:48 Berenberg: Drop in business expectations is bad news for investment Here’s a worrying chart, from Berenberg bank. It shows the correlation between the IFO expectations measure and how much German firms actually spend on new machinery: Germany: Ifo expectations drop bad news for investment. http://t.co/tHdoGTah7U pic.twitter.com/teLK3ohVje So today’s drop in the German business expectations measure to 99.3, from 101.7, suggests firms may cut back on investment too.... 9.45am BST09:45 Newsnight’s Duncan Weldon suggests German firms are too willing to blame the Russia-Ukraine crisis for their woes: There's a tendency in German business circles to blame recent slowdown on Ukraine. Obviously that hasn't helped, but problem still Eurozone. 9.42am BST09:42 As flagged earlier, IFO’s Klaus Wohlrabe predicts a weak GDP reading for the third quarter of this year: Ifo Economist Wohlrabe Says: Expects Economy To Stagnate In Q3 Still Expects German Gdp Growth Of Around 1.5 Pct In 2014 Updated at 9.46am BST 9.39am BST09:39 Ifo: Economy No Longer Running Smoothly; Hardly Any Stimulus in Manufacturing from Exports 9.37am BST09:37 And Associated Press agrees that “the persistent turmoil in Ukraine and sluggish European growth” has been driving German business confidence down for months. 9.36am BST09:36 Steve Collins, global head of dealing at London & Capital Asset Management, points out that today’s IFO’s report is the latest in a stream of bad economic news from Europe recently: IFO its probably not bad enough to be a game-changer - but adds to the drip drip of bad news. The number now the weakest since April 2013 9.33am BST09:33 ING economist Carsten Brzeski reckons this latest fall in German business confidence should prevent the Bundesbank speaking out against the ECB’s plans to stimulate the eurozone. Drop in Ifo is at least good news for ECB: should hush any German protests against (further) monetary loosening and euro weakening... 9.25am BST09:25 German business confidence falls for 5th month running German business confidence has fallen again this month, in another signal that Europe’s largest economy is struggling. The IFO business climate index has dropped to 104.7 this month, down from 106.3 in August, and much weaker than the 108 recorded in September 2013. German firms reported that they are gloomier about current conditions, and also less upbeat about the future. The business conditions index dropped to 110.5, from 111.1. And the business expectations measure fell to 99.3, from 101.7 in August. It suggests that the German economy may not have rallied sharply in recent months, after contracting by 0.2% in the second quarter of this year. IFO economist Dr Klaus Wohlrabe says that reduced export expectations are hitting business confidence. He fears that growth in the third quarter could be weak. Germany the engine of European growth stalls !!!!!! Alexander Koch, an economist at Raiffeisen Schweiz in Zurich, told Bloomberg this morning that geopolitical tensions and the weak European economy has been pushing the IFO index down “substantially” since spring. “Drivers of the moderation are the Ukraine conflict and lower growth momentum in the neighboring euro-area countries. Dynamics should stabilize in autumn and provide the way for somewhat better growth prospects again at the end of the year.” I’ll pull some reaction together now.... 9.20am BST09:20 Hat-tip to the ECB, who have uploaded a full transcript of Mario Draghi’s interview on Europe 1 this morning Here is the transcript of #Draghi interview on Europe1 http://t.co/n4jYW5efpL pic.twitter.com/UdMBDYRrDS Here’s one question I missed earlier: Otherwise you see anti-Europe political parties rise:, in Germany, in Greece and even in France with Marine Le Pen that argues for the return to national currency. It seems that you are worried, what is the best answer to this? The best answer to this, but also to the sense of lack of hope that the millions of unemployed people have in the euro area -- the best answer is to do the reforms, implement the appropriate policies and monetary policy will do its task. Updated at 9.20am BST 9.12am BST09:12 Trinity Mirror issues statement on phone hacking cases Just in: Trinity Mirror, the UK newspaper and publishing group, has issued a statement to the City on “historic legal issues”. It says that its subsidiary MGN Ltd has “admitted liability to four individuals who had sued MGN for alleged interception of their voicemails many years ago”. It has apologised, and agreed to pay compensation. It also added that “six other voicemail interception claims have already been settled for agreed sums”. My colleagues will have more details on this shortly. 8.58am BST08:58 In the City, shares in Royal Bank of Scotland have dipped after it was forced to cut the price for the flotation of its Citizens business. Investors demanded, and got, a lower price from RBS after expressing doubts about the US bank’s prospects for profitability. So instead of selling Citizens for between $23 (£14) and $25 a share, the initial public offering (IPO) was priced at $21.50 a share in New York. That means Citizens is worth about $12bn, not the $14bn pricetag RBS was aiming for. RBS shares have responded accordingly, down 1.5% at 352.7. 8.35am BST08:35 Draghi: We will use every tool at our disposal to fight deflation Mario Draghi, the head of the European Central Bank, has taken to the airwaves this morning, in an attempt to calm fears over the eurozone economy. Draghi told France’s Europe 1 radio station that the ECB will keep its monetary policy “accommodative” for as long as needed, and do everything in its power to avoid the eurozone slumping into deflation. He said: “Monetary policy will remain accommodating for a long time and I can tell you that the Governing Council is unanimous in committing itself to using the tools at its disposal to bring inflation back to just under 2%.” Interest rates will remain low because they can’t get much lower,” Earlier this month the ECB cut the headline eurozone interest rate to just 0.05%, which really is the lowest point they can reach. The ECB chief also warned that monetary policy alone cannot bring Europe back to growth. He insisted that he doesn’t see a risk of deflation, and cited unemployment as the biggest threat to the European economy. Here’s a few more snaps off the wires: And although there’s nothing jaw-dropping here, Draghi’s words do seem to be calming the European markets, which are broadly flat in early trading. 8.24am BST08:24 TNT shares tumble almost 10% after profit warning Shares in TNT Express are sliding in early trading, down almost 10% as traders in Amsterdam punish the company for its profits warning. They are currently down €0.55 at €5.060. 8.11am BST08:11 TNT CEO disappointed over profit warning TNT’s chief executive Tex Gunning has said today’s profit warning was “disappointing”, but insisted the company remained on the right track. Gunning also warned that it could take until 2019 to fix TNT’s fortunes, Reuters reports: “The company’s turnaround programme was “solid”, he said, but would “realistically take three to five years for the full benefits to come through.” Updated at 8.13am BST 8.07am BST08:07 TNT hits markets with profit warning Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the financial markets, the world economy, business and finance. Some disappointing news to start the day - Dutch parcel firm TNT Express has issued a profit warning after realising that Europe’s economy is weaker than it had hoped. TNT dropped an unwelcome surprise on shareholders this morning, warning that: “Since the interim results of July 28, 2014, overall trading conditions in Europe have deteriorated further and competitive pressures have increased.” It has now slashed its 2015 profit forecast, which was based on an economic growth rate in Europe of between 2 and 3%. That now looks ambitious, given the IMF expects growth of just 1.1%. It’s another sign that Europe’s economy not in great shape; six months ago, TNT’s CEO was declaring that he hoped “the worst is behind us in terms of the economic recession”. It’s a double-whammy for TNT investors; the company is also setting aside €50m to settle a French competition case, Shares in the company are expected to be hit hard. There’s an edgy feel in the European markets today, after two days of heavy falls which saw Britain’s FTSE 100 suffer its biggest drop since March yesterday. A mixed session in Asia overnight saw the MSCI index of leading shares hit a four-month low, before recovering a little. Traders remain worried about geopolitical tensions -- with fresh air strikes on ISIS positions in Syria this morning. Stan Shamu of IG Index says: Ahead of the European open, we’re calling the major bourses weaker, with investors still concerned about growth and the effectiveness of policy measures. On the calendar we have the German Ifo business climate reading and Italy’s consumer confidence data. The Ifo index measures business confidence in the Eurozone’s largest economy, so it should show how much German companies have been hit by the conflict in Eastern Ukraine. Some economists reckon we shouldn’t give it too much attention, though: I like this take on Ifo from Citi (out today at 9) -"the over-hyped, over-analyzed and over-stressed in importance German ifo survey" I’ll be covering the main events through the day... |