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Growing Imbalance Between Germany and France Strains Their Relationship Growing Imbalance Between Germany and France Strains Their Relationship
(about 14 hours later)
BERLIN — It was a clear illustration of the dysfunction of the French-German partnership, the axis that for decades kept Europe on a united and dynamic track. BERLIN — It was a clear illustration of the dysfunction of the French-German partnership, the axis that for decades kept Europe on a united and dynamic track.
In Berlin this month, Chancellor Angela Merkel, riding high after nine years in power, delivered a strident defense in Parliament of austerity, which she has been pushing on Europe ever since a debt crisis broke out in 2009.In Berlin this month, Chancellor Angela Merkel, riding high after nine years in power, delivered a strident defense in Parliament of austerity, which she has been pushing on Europe ever since a debt crisis broke out in 2009.
But if the message was familiar, on that day it seemed to have a deliberate target: France, Germany’s No. 1 ally, whose government had just waged a vociferous backlash against her program, and said that it would not meet European Union deficit goals until 2017.But if the message was familiar, on that day it seemed to have a deliberate target: France, Germany’s No. 1 ally, whose government had just waged a vociferous backlash against her program, and said that it would not meet European Union deficit goals until 2017.
That rhetorical volley was the latest example of how far the partners have drifted apart. While their formal relationship remains close, the power balance has shifted sharply since Europe’s debt crisis erupted, raising doubts about their ability to continue their traditional role of together leading Europe in new economic and political directions.That rhetorical volley was the latest example of how far the partners have drifted apart. While their formal relationship remains close, the power balance has shifted sharply since Europe’s debt crisis erupted, raising doubts about their ability to continue their traditional role of together leading Europe in new economic and political directions.
The two countries are in such different places — economically, socially and politically — that the vaunted partnership teeters on the verge of a breakdown, analysts warn.The two countries are in such different places — economically, socially and politically — that the vaunted partnership teeters on the verge of a breakdown, analysts warn.
“The problem is that the relationship has become deeply unbalanced,” said Dominique Moïsi, a senior adviser at the French Institute for International Relations. “The French and Germans are not playing in the same league any longer, and the overall equilibrium of Europe was depending on a relatively balanced relationship, which no longer exists.”“The problem is that the relationship has become deeply unbalanced,” said Dominique Moïsi, a senior adviser at the French Institute for International Relations. “The French and Germans are not playing in the same league any longer, and the overall equilibrium of Europe was depending on a relatively balanced relationship, which no longer exists.”
Just last year, France and Germany were celebrating the 50th anniversary of their agreement to bury centuries of hostility and cooperate more closely than almost any other independent nations.Just last year, France and Germany were celebrating the 50th anniversary of their agreement to bury centuries of hostility and cooperate more closely than almost any other independent nations.
But the French economy has grown stagnant, with unemployment stubbornly stuck near 11 percent and an unpopular government pledging to cut tens of billions in taxes on business, which many French fear will unravel their prized welfare state.But the French economy has grown stagnant, with unemployment stubbornly stuck near 11 percent and an unpopular government pledging to cut tens of billions in taxes on business, which many French fear will unravel their prized welfare state.
President François Hollande of France, with a popularity rating around 13 percent, is weaker than any predecessor since the beginning of the Fifth Republic in 1958 — “a walking ghost,” wrote Michaela Wiegel, the Paris correspondent of Germany’s Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung.President François Hollande of France, with a popularity rating around 13 percent, is weaker than any predecessor since the beginning of the Fifth Republic in 1958 — “a walking ghost,” wrote Michaela Wiegel, the Paris correspondent of Germany’s Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung.
Ms. Merkel, by default but also design, has become Europe’s strongest leader. While the German economy has shown signs of slowing down, rumblings by Germans about the limitations of austerity have remained nothing more than background noise.Ms. Merkel, by default but also design, has become Europe’s strongest leader. While the German economy has shown signs of slowing down, rumblings by Germans about the limitations of austerity have remained nothing more than background noise.
The schism between the two nations may come to a head this week, when Prime Minister Manuel Valls of France arrives in Berlin on Monday for talks with Ms. Merkel, his first visit since taking office last spring. The trip will also include talks with German business leaders.The schism between the two nations may come to a head this week, when Prime Minister Manuel Valls of France arrives in Berlin on Monday for talks with Ms. Merkel, his first visit since taking office last spring. The trip will also include talks with German business leaders.
France is not so much bucking austerity as it is playing for time. Faced with a weak economy and a growing deficit, French leaders say they have reached the limits of what they can cut to meet European Union deficit targets. Rather, they argue, France needs reform and investment to spur the economy and create rising tax revenues to bring the deficit into line.France is not so much bucking austerity as it is playing for time. Faced with a weak economy and a growing deficit, French leaders say they have reached the limits of what they can cut to meet European Union deficit targets. Rather, they argue, France needs reform and investment to spur the economy and create rising tax revenues to bring the deficit into line.
Mr. Valls has said Germany must understand that France is not likely to reach its deficit targets more quickly merely by making deeper budget cuts.Mr. Valls has said Germany must understand that France is not likely to reach its deficit targets more quickly merely by making deeper budget cuts.
“Germany is a great nation, which we respect,” Mr. Valls told Parliament before narrowly winning a confidence vote last Tuesday. But “our message must be heard,” Mr. Valls added. “Germany must assume its responsibilities” for Europe.“Germany is a great nation, which we respect,” Mr. Valls told Parliament before narrowly winning a confidence vote last Tuesday. But “our message must be heard,” Mr. Valls added. “Germany must assume its responsibilities” for Europe.
In recent days, his message has grown more strident. Asked by a reporter on Friday how he would persuade France’s European partners to let him extend the deficit timeline, and convince them that France was not seeking special treatment, he said the deficit was “not a special treatment,” but “a fact.”In recent days, his message has grown more strident. Asked by a reporter on Friday how he would persuade France’s European partners to let him extend the deficit timeline, and convince them that France was not seeking special treatment, he said the deficit was “not a special treatment,” but “a fact.”
“I will not ask for indulgence,” he said. “I won’t participate in a punitive vision of France or any other country on these issues.”“I will not ask for indulgence,” he said. “I won’t participate in a punitive vision of France or any other country on these issues.”
Ms. Merkel and her finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble have remained unmoved. On Friday she reiterated that Germany intended to balance its budget for 2015. Her spokesman, Steffen Seibert, said, “Germany has a huge interest in a strong France, an economically prosperous France.”Ms. Merkel and her finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble have remained unmoved. On Friday she reiterated that Germany intended to balance its budget for 2015. Her spokesman, Steffen Seibert, said, “Germany has a huge interest in a strong France, an economically prosperous France.”
But other officials have expressed increasing concern about France. Asked recently about the relationship, one European leader said, on the condition of anonymity: “What Franco-German axis? There are no French.”But other officials have expressed increasing concern about France. Asked recently about the relationship, one European leader said, on the condition of anonymity: “What Franco-German axis? There are no French.”
By appearing to buck austerity, Mr. Valls may gain political support at home at a time when it is eroding quickly. He and Mr. Hollande have alienated many members of the Socialist Party by taking a more centrist approach to economic policy, stoking suspicions that the government is favoring business at the expense of the welfare state.By appearing to buck austerity, Mr. Valls may gain political support at home at a time when it is eroding quickly. He and Mr. Hollande have alienated many members of the Socialist Party by taking a more centrist approach to economic policy, stoking suspicions that the government is favoring business at the expense of the welfare state.
While Mr. Valls has not outlined any new spending stimulus, setting limits on additional budget cuts in France may help appease voters and draw attention away from the far-right National Front, which has increasingly consolidated political gains.While Mr. Valls has not outlined any new spending stimulus, setting limits on additional budget cuts in France may help appease voters and draw attention away from the far-right National Front, which has increasingly consolidated political gains.
Nevertheless, Mr. Moïsi of the French Institute for International Relations said, France had been weakened by its economic and political problems.Nevertheless, Mr. Moïsi of the French Institute for International Relations said, France had been weakened by its economic and political problems.
“The French can say diplomacy still makes us the equal of Germany, but this is not the way the world perceives Europe,” he said. When President Obama, President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia or Prime Minister Li Keqiang of China want to deal with Europe, he said, “they care for Merkel, not for Hollande.”“The French can say diplomacy still makes us the equal of Germany, but this is not the way the world perceives Europe,” he said. When President Obama, President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia or Prime Minister Li Keqiang of China want to deal with Europe, he said, “they care for Merkel, not for Hollande.”
A weakened French-German alliance comes at a precarious time. Europe appears on the cusp of more upheaval. Passions and rifts stirred by the independence vote in Scotland, the crisis in Ukraine, persistently high youth unemployment, sluggish growth and rising populism challenge European leaders when many have lost the faith of their voters.A weakened French-German alliance comes at a precarious time. Europe appears on the cusp of more upheaval. Passions and rifts stirred by the independence vote in Scotland, the crisis in Ukraine, persistently high youth unemployment, sluggish growth and rising populism challenge European leaders when many have lost the faith of their voters.
It is not the first time the French-German alliance has weakened. Just over a decade ago, as Ms. Merkel is fond of noting, Germany was Europe’s sick economy. It recovered partly because of changes to labor laws and social welfare. Mr. Hollande now faces a similar task in an era of low or no growth.It is not the first time the French-German alliance has weakened. Just over a decade ago, as Ms. Merkel is fond of noting, Germany was Europe’s sick economy. It recovered partly because of changes to labor laws and social welfare. Mr. Hollande now faces a similar task in an era of low or no growth.
Alfred Grosser, a leading German-French writer and sociologist, said the modern relationship has never been so dire. Still, he said, while the news media and political elites highlight the tension, ordinary French and Germans remain deeply bound to one another, the result of their shared history since 1945.Alfred Grosser, a leading German-French writer and sociologist, said the modern relationship has never been so dire. Still, he said, while the news media and political elites highlight the tension, ordinary French and Germans remain deeply bound to one another, the result of their shared history since 1945.
What those people need is leadership, he added. With Mr. Hollande so weak, and Ms. Merkel so cautious, even enigmatic, the French and German people feel a void. “What the chancellor thinks, almost no one knows,” Mr. Grosser said. “What does she want with Europe?”What those people need is leadership, he added. With Mr. Hollande so weak, and Ms. Merkel so cautious, even enigmatic, the French and German people feel a void. “What the chancellor thinks, almost no one knows,” Mr. Grosser said. “What does she want with Europe?”
Analysts said Germany must tread cautiously; it needs France to make Europe work. Overstepping could worsen the situation for Mr. Hollande’s Socialist Party, which received just 14 percent of the vote in the European Parliament elections in May, compared with nearly 25 percent for the National Front.Analysts said Germany must tread cautiously; it needs France to make Europe work. Overstepping could worsen the situation for Mr. Hollande’s Socialist Party, which received just 14 percent of the vote in the European Parliament elections in May, compared with nearly 25 percent for the National Front.
The situation has grown more complicated than may be resolved merely by France towing the Germans’ line, analysts said. The situation has grown more complicated than may be resolved merely by France toeing the Germans’ line, analysts said.
“In the eurozone, Merkel was the absolute queen, because she could commit German money to problems,” said Daniel Gros, director of the Center for European Policy Studies in Brussels. “But now we face a different set of issues: We’re facing Russia, and the battle for what is the proper economic policy for Europe. And that’s not something she can dictate. But she can set the agenda and be the rallying point for the majority.”“In the eurozone, Merkel was the absolute queen, because she could commit German money to problems,” said Daniel Gros, director of the Center for European Policy Studies in Brussels. “But now we face a different set of issues: We’re facing Russia, and the battle for what is the proper economic policy for Europe. And that’s not something she can dictate. But she can set the agenda and be the rallying point for the majority.”