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It’s not 2002 anymore: For Congress, a sea change since its last Iraq war vote It’s not 2002 anymore: For Congress, a sea change since its last Iraq war vote
(30 days later)
Minutes after President Obama outlined a new strategy to attack Islamic State forces, Sen. Mark Begich issued a blunt rejection of the proposal.Minutes after President Obama outlined a new strategy to attack Islamic State forces, Sen. Mark Begich issued a blunt rejection of the proposal.
“I oppose the President’s plan to arm Syrian rebels at this time,” the Alaska Democrat said, warning of rushing “into another decade-long ground war.”“I oppose the President’s plan to arm Syrian rebels at this time,” the Alaska Democrat said, warning of rushing “into another decade-long ground war.”
Sen. Mark Udall (D-Colo.) said many questions remained unanswered. “I will not give this president — or any other president — a blank check to begin another land war in Iraq,” he said. Sen. Mark Udall (D-Colo.) concurred. “I will not give this president — or any other president — a blank check to begin another land war in Iraq,” he said.
Begich and Udall are two of the most vulnerable Democrats seeking reelection this fall. Their reluctance to support the commander in chief on a conflict abroad demonstrates just how much the politics of war have changed since the last time Congress was asked to authorize war actions. Begich and Udall are two of the most vulnerable Democrats seeking reelection this fall. Their reluctance to support the commander in chief demonstrates just how much the politics of war have changed since the last time Congress was asked to authorize war actions.
In October 2002, with the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, still fresh on voter minds, almost every Republican backed President George W. Bush’s request to attack Iraq, along with 40 percent of House Democrats. A majority of Senate Democrats voted for the war resolution. In October 2002, with the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, still fresh in voters’ minds, almost every Republican backed President George W. Bush’s request to attack Iraq, along with 40 percent of House Democrats. A majority of Senate Democrats voted for the war resolution.
Every senator who would later run for president voted for the war — Republicans John McCain (Ariz.) and Rick Santorum (Pa.) and Democrats Joe Biden (Del.), Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.), John Edwards (N.C.) and John F. Kerry (Mass.).Every senator who would later run for president voted for the war — Republicans John McCain (Ariz.) and Rick Santorum (Pa.) and Democrats Joe Biden (Del.), Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.), John Edwards (N.C.) and John F. Kerry (Mass.).
That vote occurred just weeks before the 2002 midterm elections, when national security was the overwhelming issue. This week, lawmakers expect to cast votes just seven weeks before this year’s midterms, on a smaller plan to train and arm pro-Western rebels fighting the Islamic State inside Syria. That vote occurred just weeks before the 2002 midterm elections, when national security was the overwhelming issue. This week, lawmakers expect to cast votes just seven weeks before this year’s midterms on a smaller plan to train and arm pro-Western rebels fighting the Islamic State inside Syria.
Suddenly, war is again the most talked-about issue for lawmakers, but the feeling in the Capitol is markedly different from what it was a dozen years ago.Suddenly, war is again the most talked-about issue for lawmakers, but the feeling in the Capitol is markedly different from what it was a dozen years ago.
“We had just been impacted by the deaths of 3,000 Americans,” McCain recalled. “You know, it was one of the most tragic events in history, so everybody rallied.”“We had just been impacted by the deaths of 3,000 Americans,” McCain recalled. “You know, it was one of the most tragic events in history, so everybody rallied.”
He noted that the beheadings of two U.S. journalists by Islamic State militants have galvanized public support for airstrikes, but no one is sure how long war-weary voters will be willing to support the plan.He noted that the beheadings of two U.S. journalists by Islamic State militants have galvanized public support for airstrikes, but no one is sure how long war-weary voters will be willing to support the plan.
Leaders in both parties expect broad bipartisan support this week for the proposal to equip and train Syrian rebels — followed, after the midterm elections, by an expansive war powers debate during the lame-duck session. No one is quite sure how that will play out, on the campaign trail or in Congress afterward. Leaders in both parties expect broad bipartisan support this week for the proposal to equip and train Syrian rebels — followed, after the midterm elections, by an expansive war-powers debate during the lame-duck session. No one is quite sure how that will play out, on the campaign trail or in Congress afterward.
For starters, there has been a massive generational turnover on Capitol Hill. There are just 46 senators left who cast votes on the 2002 Iraq war resolution, 15 of whom were in the House at that time. Fewer than 145 of the 432 House members were on hand for that debate. For starters, there has been a massive generational turnover on Capitol Hill. There are just 53 senators left who cast votes on the 2002 Iraq war resolution, 22 of whom were in the House at that time. Fewer than 145 of the 432 House members were on hand for that debate.
Much of today’s Congress arrived during the Obama presidency. These lawmakers will experience a November debate in which the old expectations — Republicans as war hawks and Democrats as skittish doves — are essentially obsolete.Much of today’s Congress arrived during the Obama presidency. These lawmakers will experience a November debate in which the old expectations — Republicans as war hawks and Democrats as skittish doves — are essentially obsolete.
Most Democrats in office were swept in on antiwar campaigns in 2006 and 2008. Most Democrats in office were swept in on antiwar campaigns in 2006 and 2008. “I think this debate is so important to those of us who came to Congress after 2006,” said Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.), who defeated a longtime GOP House incumbent that year. “We’ve never had the opportunity to debate the parameters of U.S. military involvement, and yet we’ve had to live with the consequences of it done wrong.”
“I think this debate is so important to those of us who came to Congress after 2006,” said Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.), who defeated a longtime GOP House incumbent that year. “We’ve never had the opportunity to debate the parameters of U.S. military involvement, and yet we’ve had to live with the consequences of it done wrong.”
And most Republicans rode into the Capitol in 2010 and 2012 pledging to block every Obama initiative. Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.), who won a House seat in 2010 and was appointed to the Senate in 2013, said he supports a very strong attack on the Islamic State but has many questions before he will fully support a war plan.And most Republicans rode into the Capitol in 2010 and 2012 pledging to block every Obama initiative. Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.), who won a House seat in 2010 and was appointed to the Senate in 2013, said he supports a very strong attack on the Islamic State but has many questions before he will fully support a war plan.
“The magnitude of what we do here can’t be measured by a single vote,” he said. “I’d love to have more information about the Iraqi forces that we’re going to be training. There’s a lot of issues that we should delve into.”“The magnitude of what we do here can’t be measured by a single vote,” he said. “I’d love to have more information about the Iraqi forces that we’re going to be training. There’s a lot of issues that we should delve into.”
Voters seem to have a similar uncertainty. In last week’s Washington Post-ABC News poll, 71 percent said they supported airstrikes in Iraq against Islamic State forces, a jump from 54 percent just three weeks earlier.Voters seem to have a similar uncertainty. In last week’s Washington Post-ABC News poll, 71 percent said they supported airstrikes in Iraq against Islamic State forces, a jump from 54 percent just three weeks earlier.
Yet just 12 percent of voters said international conflicts would be the most important issue in the fall elections, a distant fourth place behind the economy and jobs, which has the No. 1 priority of 35 percent of voters. Yet just 12 percent of voters said international conflicts would be the most important issue in the fall elections, a distant fourth place behind the economy and jobs, which is the No. 1 priority for 35 percent of voters.
That dissonance has produced an uneven response, particularly from Democrats in tough races. Sens. Kay Hagan (N.C.), Mary Landrieu (La.) and Mark Pryor (Ark.) issued strong calls for tough military action. Begich and Udall sounded like doves. Others couldn’t decide which position to take.That dissonance has produced an uneven response, particularly from Democrats in tough races. Sens. Kay Hagan (N.C.), Mary Landrieu (La.) and Mark Pryor (Ark.) issued strong calls for tough military action. Begich and Udall sounded like doves. Others couldn’t decide which position to take.
“I want to find out more about the potential ramifications of these actions on the civil war in Syria, for more specifics about the coalition the administration intends to build,” said Sen. Al Franken (D-Minn.).“I want to find out more about the potential ramifications of these actions on the civil war in Syria, for more specifics about the coalition the administration intends to build,” said Sen. Al Franken (D-Minn.).
Complicating factors even more, Obama is mired in one of the low points of his tenure. His job approval rating in last week’s poll stood at just 42 percent. On international affairs, just 38 percent of respondents support him. Complicating factors even more, Obama is mired in one of the low points of his tenure. His job approval rating in last week’s Washington Post-ABC News poll stood at just 42 percent. On international affairs, just 38 percent of respondents support him.
Twelve years ago, Bush strode atop the political scene as the single dominant figure: Sixty-seven percent of voters approved of his job performance, and 70 percent approved of his post-9/11 war on terrorism. Twelve years ago, Bush strode atop the political scene as the single dominant figure. Sixty-seven percent of voters approved of his job performance, and 70 percent of his post-9/11 war on terrorism. And 61 percent of voters favored war with Iraq, which along with the Afghanistan conflict was considered the top issue before the 2002 elections.
And 61 percent of voters favored war with Iraq, which along with the Afghanistan conflict was considered the top issue before the 2002 elections.
Democrats were left in a fearful political crouch. Rep. Richard A. Gephardt (D-Mo.), then the House minority leader, actually helped draft the war resolution and appeared on the White House lawn with Bush to unveil the measure. Senate Democrats who came of age during the Vietnam War and who had opposed the first Iraq war in 1991 — including Biden, Kerry and Sen. Tom Harkin (D-Iowa) — ended up yes votes.Democrats were left in a fearful political crouch. Rep. Richard A. Gephardt (D-Mo.), then the House minority leader, actually helped draft the war resolution and appeared on the White House lawn with Bush to unveil the measure. Senate Democrats who came of age during the Vietnam War and who had opposed the first Iraq war in 1991 — including Biden, Kerry and Sen. Tom Harkin (D-Iowa) — ended up yes votes.
“The facts that have brought us to this fateful vote are not in doubt,” Clinton said in a Senate floor speech supporting the war.“The facts that have brought us to this fateful vote are not in doubt,” Clinton said in a Senate floor speech supporting the war.
Six years later, after the war turned upside down, Obama used her authorization vote to win the Democratic presidential nomination, then turned McCain’s hawkish views against him to win the White House. By Wednesday night, as Obama asked Congress to begin the steps toward supporting a new air war in Iraq, veterans took note of the different tone. Six years later, after the war turned upside down, Obama keyed on Clinton’s authorization vote to help him to win the Democratic presidential nomination, then turned McCain’s hawkish views against him to win the White House. By Wednesday night, as Obama asked Congress to begin the steps toward supporting a new air war in Iraq, veterans took note of the different tone.
“It was a much different speech than George W. Bush would have given in 2002,” said Sen. Roy Blunt (R-Mo.), who as a House member helped chamber leaders whip votes for the Iraq war resolution. “It’s a much less certain trumpet.” “It was a much different speech than George W. Bush would have given in 2002,” said Sen. Roy Blunt (R-Mo.), who as a then-House member helped chamber leaders whip votes for the Iraq war resolution. “It’s a much less certain trumpet.”
Newcomers appreciated that hesitant voice. “Every conversation in the White House and in Congress is educated by the experience of the Iraq war,” Murphy said. “I mean, there is a skepticism that President Obama himself expresses about military intervention in the Middle East. It’s a reality of the last decade.”Newcomers appreciated that hesitant voice. “Every conversation in the White House and in Congress is educated by the experience of the Iraq war,” Murphy said. “I mean, there is a skepticism that President Obama himself expresses about military intervention in the Middle East. It’s a reality of the last decade.”