Scotland’s referendum has spurred a dash for devo – but localism is no panacea

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/sep/16/scotland-referendum-devolution-localism-england

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The heads of all three main parties should roll – effigies on spikes on Westminster Bridge – if Scotland breaks away on Thursday. All three parties, for very different reasons, should be abjectly contrite for the deep disconnection between people and politics. But don’t hold your breath: David Cameron won’t resign, though he is most to blame for governing Britain by and for his own southern people.

Fewer than 1% in all Britain belong to any party. Democracy hangs on tiny valiant bands of political obsessives calling on voters, who give them an earful for their efforts. I respect the practitioners of politics who work harder than the public knows, motivated by good intent yet despised as Westminster scum.

Yes or no, the referendum shatters complacency over the state of politics. What’s to be done? The answer from all sides is “localism”. Westminster’s monstrous hegemony must be broken up with devolution. If Scotland goes, rump UK will be bereft and depleted. But if Scotland stays, monumental home-rule promises made in the last week’s panic will offer Scotland immense tax, spending and borrowing powers that, says the London School of Economics’ Tony Travers, England will rightly resent. Already the Barnett formula gives the Scots more per capita, but look what happens now: under Osborne austerity, whatever extra Scotland spends or borrows will come out of the Treasury’s UK total – and that means less for the rest. Good to break Osborne’s unnecessarily extreme cuts planned for after the election, but cities, regions, counties, all will want equal freedom from Treasury handcuffs biting into local leaders’ wrists.

At first sight, how attractive it looks for each locality to raise tax and spend its share of national income as best suits local circumstance. Localism sounds comforting. It is indeed high time to give back powers Margaret Thatcher stripped out and replace the millions of council homes she sold. Labour would give local health and wellbeing boards some NHS powers. Schools and further education should be returned too. Borrowing to build, councils should sell bonds.

But alarm bells ring when groupthink grips all parties. For social democrats there are as many dangers as opportunities. Unlike more equal federal countries, England is so grotesquely unequal in geography and class that London and the south-east make all the money, the rest take it. Redistribution from the south must limit the scope for local tax-raising. The north-east, Cornwall or West Midlands may feel angrily alienated from Cameron’s government, but they can’t break away.

Labour localists point to lovely Greater Manchester, city region under great leadership, rising in prestige as shown by the BBC’s Salford move. But localists forget basketcase rotten borough authorities – Labour’s Doncasters and Rotherhams. What of nasty and idle Tory counties? Essex and Kent have more poor people than anywhere, yet will always be Tory. Kent dumps on its poor in Thanet living in dire conditions, keeping grammar schools that leave the rest in worse schools. In England more poor children live in non-poor wards than in deprived wards: it can be worse to be poor in a Tory area. So how much devo max would you give bad councils?

How would localities use tax-raising powers? Travers says councils are the most reluctant to raise tax. Scotland notoriously never used its right to raise income tax by 3p. Labour councils such as Hackney, Lambeth, Camden and Newham boast of council tax freezes, when they could have raised it 2%. Tory councils would use new powers to cut local income tax, just as Salmond will: he won’t restore the 50p top tax, while he undercuts on corporation tax, like the Irish. Labour councils might raise council tax if some government has the nerve to revalue and bring in new upper bands – currently a palace pays the same as a regular terraced home.

Remember that governments in power lose control of local councils. Devolving means Labour couldn’t order universal Sure Start centres for every child, or force social housing to be built in nimby Tory zones. In the great panic, Scotland has been offered unspecified control over welfare – escaping this government’s abominations. But God help us when the likes of Buckinghamshire, or Wandsworth get that freedom too.

Watch out if London demands independence. Boris Johnson has called for it, views reflected by Simon Jenkins in the London Evening Standard, calling for the M25 to be the boundary of a UK- and EU-free city state, keeping its “own” money. Douglas Carswell’s brand of anarcho-localism on the right intends to break the state. Localists, beware your allies.

Is localism really the answer to political antipathy? Travers finds no evidence that people voted more when councils had more power. In their heyday turnout was still only 30%-40%. Cameron thought crime would rouse local passions – but only 15% voted for his police commissioners. Pollsters detect no clamour for local democracy. Ipsos Mori found a majority thought “people should get involved in improving public services and local areas” – but asked if they would personally, only 5% said yes.

We need a great constitutional convention, because when you pull one thread the old cobweb unravels. Let’s have a House of Lords elected from localities – sited in York or Derby. Proportional representation is needed to break up rotten boroughs and safe seats. The IPPR North report wisely advises taking 10 years to hand powers to the right places, not one size fits all: no Sykes-Picot lines drawn by Whitehall; Cornwall may not join Bristol, Manchester is ready today but Birmingham is chaotic; all cities will refuse to be overruled by a region. Will years of rolling devo-constitutionalising really rekindle voter enthusiasm?

I don’t know the answers to these conundrums, but dashing for devo is dangerous. The deepest recession of our lifetime was bound to rouse anti-politics wrath. The idea of Britain is hollowed out by 30 years of selling everything national (with even Royal Mail gone), trashing the public service ethos, sacking public staff, letting predatory capitalism rip while wages fall, pricing everything and valuing nothing. The logic of localism risks leading in the end to less national identity and less fair distribution of wealth. Good politics will revive if strong ideas hold the imagination, keeping enough people together with common goals.