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David Cameron makes emotional plea to Scotland as independence vote looms David Cameron makes emotional plea to Scotland as independence vote looms
(about 2 hours later)
David Cameron has spelled out to the people of Scotland the stark costs of a "painful divorce" from the rest of the United Kingdom as a poll showed nearly two-thirds of voters in England objected to the idea of sharing the pound. David Cameron has spelled out to the people of Scotland the stark costs of a "painful divorce" from the rest of the United Kingdom as a poll showed nearly two-thirds of voters in England and Wales objected to the idea of sharing the pound.
In an emotional but at times hard-edged speech on his last visit to Scotland before the independence referendum, the prime minister warned that a yes vote on Thursday would end the UK "for good, for ever" and would deprive the Scottish people of a shared currency and pooled pension arrangements. In an emotional but at times hard-edged speech on his last visit to Scotland before Thursday's independence referendum, the prime minister warned that a yes vote would end the UK "for good, for ever" and would deprive the Scottish people of a shared currency and pooled pension arrangements. He also asked people not to mix up the temporary and the permanent, saying neither he nor the government would "be here forever".
A Guardian/ICM poll shows that 63% of voters in England and Wales objected to the post-independence currency union sought by Alex Salmond, Scotland's first minister. Most people in Scotland, previous polls have shown, want a deal on sterling. A Guardian/ICM poll shows that 63% of voters in England and Wales objected to the post-independence currency union sought by Alex Salmond, the Scottish first minister. Most people in Scotland, previous polls have shown, want a deal on sterling.
The prime minister, whose voice was close to breaking, spelled out what he believed would be the costs of independence. "It is my duty to be clear about the likely consequences of a yes vote. Independence would not be a trial separation. It would be a painful divorce," he said. Cameron, whose voice was close to breaking, spelled out what he believed would be the costs of independence. "It is my duty to be clear about the likely consequences of a yes vote. Independence would not be a trial separation. It would be a painful divorce," he said.
Cameron, who said he would be "utterly heartbroken" by a yes vote, listed the benefits of UK membership that the people of Scotland would lose. He said Scotland would lose its a shared currency and armed forces built up over centuries, and that pension funds would be sliced up – "at some cost". He said he would be "utterly heartbroken" by a yes vote and listed the benefits of UK membership that the people of Scotland would lose, including a shared currency, armed forces built up over centuries and pension funds that would be sliced up "at some cost".
Independence would also mean Scotland's border with England – and the sea routes to Northern Ireland – would become international frontiers, Cameron said, and that more than half of Scottish mortgages would suddenly be provided by banks in a foreign country. Independence would mean Scotland's border with England – and the sea routes to Northern Ireland – would become international frontiers, Cameron said, and that more than half of Scottish mortgages would suddenly be provided by banks in a foreign country.
In the short-term, Cameron has to decide whether to recall parliament in the event of a yes vote, as early as the weekend or next Monday, a move that would disrupt Labour's annual conference in Manchester. "We want you to stay," he said. "Head and heart and soul, we want you to stay. Please don't mix up the temporary and the permanent. Please don't think: 'I'm frustrated with politics right now, so I'll walk out the door and never come back.'
Blair Jenkins, chief executive of Yes Scotland, said Cameron's speech "was the same litany of empty threats and empty promises we have come to expect from the no campaign – and he is the prime minister who has been orchestrating the campaign of ridiculous scaremongering being directed against Scotland." "If you don't like me – I won't be here forever. If you don't like this government – it won't last forever. But if you leave the UK – that will be forever," he said.
A yes vote would give Scotland its "one opportunity" to ensure it had job creationand ended government by parties that Scottish voters did not elect, which presided over a vast increase in food banks and new nuclear weapons systems its politicians had rejected. In the short term, Cameron has to decide whether to recall parliament in the event of a yes vote, as early as the weekend or next Monday, a move that would disrupt Labour's annual conference in Manchester.
"Instead of believing the word of a Tory prime minister on a very few more powers, the people of Scotland can get all the powers we need to build a better, fairer country by believing in ourselves and voting yes," Jenkins said. Blair Jenkins, chief executive of Yes Scotland, said Cameron's speech "was the same litany of empty threats and empty promises we have come to expect from the no campaign – and he is the prime minister who has been orchestrating the campaign of ridiculous scaremongering being directed against Scotland".
Writing for the Guardian, Ben Thomson, founder of the campaign group Devo Plus, said he was close to voting yes to independence because he was so disappointed by the failure of the UK parties to make an ambitious, concrete offer for greater tax powers beyond a promise to agree new powers next year. A yes vote would give Scotland its "one opportunity" to ensure it had job creation powers, Jenkins said, and end government by parties that Scottish voters did not elect, which presided over a vast increase in food banks and new nuclear weapons systems its politicians had rejected.
"I am a natural no voter. I was not expecting to be even considering voting yes. But [the] factual reality is that the yes proposition appears to be closer to devo plus than the no proposition," Thomson said. "Instead of believing the word of a Tory prime minister on a very few more powers, the people of Scotland can get all the powers we need to build a better, fairer country by believing in ourselves and voting yes," he said.
Cameron said in Aberdeen there were clear benefits from UK membership which the people of Scotland would lose after a yes vote: a shared currency with the rest of the UK; armed forces "we built up over centuries"; pension funds which would be sliced up "at some cost". Independence would mean the UK's internal borders would become international and more than half of Scottish mortgages suddenly be provided by banks in a foreign country. Cameron's comments came as Ed Miliband prepared for a return visit to central Scotland on Tuesday when the Labour leader is expected to try to woo back disillusioned Labour voters who have largely driven a late surge in support for independence.
Warning voters against the promises offered by Salmond, he said: "I also know that the people who are running the yes campaign are painting a picture of a Scotland that is better in every way, and they can be good at painting that picture. But when something looks too good to be true, that's usually because it is." Taking the opposite tack to Cameron, his ally in the Better Together campaign, Miliband said he believed the yes campaign had delivered a clear message to UK parties that change was needed. He insisted Labour would be the best vehicle for unseating the Tories in 2015 and delivering more progressive policies.
Gordon Brown, the former Labour prime minister, sought to bolster that offensive by insisting that his party's plans to increase the tax powers and legal status of the Scottish parliament were "locked-in by a triple guarantee". "The will of the people of Scotland for economic and political change has been heard and we will deliver," he is expected to tell a rally. Contrasting his offer with "a future of separation and risk" offered by an irreversible yes vote, Miliband added: "I ask the people of Scotland to lead that change of our whole British constitution."
That message risked being undermined by a Guardian ICM poll which showed Labour's support has dipped by three points to 35% across the UK, bringing the Tories to within two points at 33%. The findings are likely to increase voter anxieties in Scotland that Labour could fail to beat the Tories next May.
Miliband's offers of further significant tax and welfare powers for Holyrood were challenged by one of Scotland's leading campaigners for greater devolution, Ben Thomson of Reform Scotland. Writing for the Guardian, Ben Thomson, founder of campaign group Devo Plus, said he was close to voting yes to independence because he was so disappointed by the failure of the UK parties to make an ambitious, concrete offer for greater tax powers, beyond a promise to agree new powers next year.
In a further push by the no campaign, all three UK leaders – Cameron, Miliband and Nick Clegg, the Lib Dem leader – signed a front page pledge in the Daily Record newspaper entitled "the vow". It promised they would give the Scottish parliament a legal guarantee of its independence from Westminster and to protect the Treasury's funding system, known as the Barnett formula.
Along with a "categoric" statement that Holyrood had the final say on Scottish health service spending, both are major new commitments, pushed for by the paper after it accused the three leaders last week of making weak promises on devolution.
Giving Holyrood its own legal standing instead of having its power gifted to it and controlled by Westminster under Labour's original devolution settlement in 1998 was a key demand of Gordon Brown, the former Labour prime minister, earlier this year.
The Scottish National party has repeatedly claimed that English and Welsh politicians would force Scotland to accept cuts or the loss of the Barnett formula if there was a no vote, accusing Westminster parties of being fickle.
Miliband is due to spend the rest of the week in Scotland, making a series of speeches in central Scotland and campaigning into polling day on Thursday, as Labour attempts to persuade its core vote to back the UK and to vote heavily in the referendum.
Brown sought to bolster that offensive by insisting that his party's plans to increase the tax powers and legal status of the Scottish parliament were "locked-in by a triple guarantee".
Brown said the three guarantees were that Holyrood would be given legal protection from meddling by Westminster, as well as extra powers; there would be a "clear statement of purpose for the UK guaranteeing fairness"; and a guarantee that Holyrood had the freedom to spend more on the NHS, using its new powers to set income tax rates.Brown said the three guarantees were that Holyrood would be given legal protection from meddling by Westminster, as well as extra powers; there would be a "clear statement of purpose for the UK guaranteeing fairness"; and a guarantee that Holyrood had the freedom to spend more on the NHS, using its new powers to set income tax rates.
On Monday the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, an international thinktank, warned that a yes vote was a potential risk to the global economy, the eurozone and emerging markets. Arguing that the UK was an important member of the group of rich countries, its secretary general, Angel Gurria, said: "We clearly believe that better together is perhaps the way to go." On Monday the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, an international thinktank, warned that a yes vote was a potential risk to the global economy, the eurozone and emerging markets. Arguing that the UK was an important member of the group of rich countries, its secretary general, Angel Gurria, said: "We clearly believe that better together is perhaps the way to go."
Property website Zoopla said a flood of homes being put up for sale in the event of a yes vote could lead to a repeat of a 17.5% fall in Scottish house prices, which took place during the financial crisis of 2008.Property website Zoopla said a flood of homes being put up for sale in the event of a yes vote could lead to a repeat of a 17.5% fall in Scottish house prices, which took place during the financial crisis of 2008.
Albert Edwards, strategist at French bank Société Générale, questioned if a yes vote could have wider implications across Europe. "The obvious market conclusion is for a weaker sterling – but a proper old fashioned crisis is plausible. But maybe that is too parochial a vision. The sequence of events which might flow from a Yes vote may be as unpredictable and as uncontrollable as those of the late 1980s in eastern Europe, which led to the ultimate demise of the USSR," said Edwards. Albert Edwards, strategist at French bank Société Générale, questioned whether a yes vote could have wider implications across Europe. "The obvious market conclusion is for a weaker sterling – but a proper old fashioned crisis is plausible. But maybe that is too parochial a vision. The sequence of events which might flow from a yes vote may be as unpredictable and as uncontrollable as those of the late 1980s in eastern Europe, which led to the ultimate demise of the USSR," said Edwards.
The White House reaffirmed on Monday its belief that it would be better for Scotland to stay in the UK. Press spokesman, Josh Earnest, repeated what President Obama said in Brussels earlier this year. "The president said that from the outside the US has a deep interest in ensuring that one of the closest allies that we'll ever have remains strong, robust and united and an effective partner with the US. This is a decision for the people of Scotland to make; we certainly respect the right of the individual Scots to make a decision along these lines, but as the president said, we have an interest [pause] in seeing the United Kingdom remain strong, robust, united," Earnest said.