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Sweden's Social Democrats claim election victory after austerity backlash
Sweden's Social Democrats face weak minority government
(about 1 hour later)
Sweden's centre-left Social Democrat leader, Stefan Lofven, emerged as victor in Sunday's general election after a voter backlash against tax and welfare cuts by the centre-right government, but faced challenges forming a strong coalition as he fell short of a parliamentary majority.
Sweden's Social Democratic party, which on Sunday ended its longest spell in opposition in a century, faces a weak minority government after the far-right Sweden Democrats emerged as the third-largest party.
The Nordic region's biggest economy and one of the few star performers in Europe now faces a weak minority government with a possible political impasse as the anti-immigrant far right emerged as the third biggest party to hold the balance of power.
In his first speech after the election result, the incoming prime minister, Stefan Löfven, a former welder who built his career in the country's union movement, insisted the new government would be functional. "I am ready to form a workable government for Sweden," he said. "The Swedish people have turned their backs against tax cuts and privatisations. The Swedish people demanded change."
Lofven's Social Democrats and two other opposition parties, the Greens and Left, garnered 43.7% of the vote, against 39.3% for the coalition of the prime minister, Fredrik Reinfeldt. That means a government with limited clout to pass bills.
Mariam Ismail Egal, a Social Democrat campaigner in Malmö, where 40% of people are from an immigrant background, said many in the city were "disappointed and frightened" that the Sweden Democrats had doubled their vote to more than 13%. "I think we are becoming more like France, and I think we will see a lot of conflict and division in our society," she said.
Lofven told supporters he would begin coalition talks with the Greens but would also reach out to other parties.
Jimmie Åkesson, the party's young leader, was jubilant as preliminary vote counts came in. "We're the absolute kingmaker now," he said. "They can't ignore us the way they have ignored us over the past four years."
"We are in serious situation. We have thousands of people unemployed, We have school results that are declining more than in any other OECD country," Lofven said. "There is something that is breaking. Now Sweden has answered that we need a change."
With more than 80% of the vote counted, the three main left-of-centre parties had won 43.7%, comfortably more than the centre-right Alliance's 35.3%, but still far short of a majority.
After all but two of 5,837 voting districts had been counted, the three centre-left parties – who have not as yet created a formal bloc – won 158 parliamentary seats, short of the 175 needed for a majority. The government coalition won 142.
Löfven, who had not previously been elected to public office, struggled against more experienced opponents in the country's eight televised election debates. But his years of back-room union negotiations will be invaluable in forming a government strong enough get the country's budget through parliament in November.
The far right anti-immigration Sweden Democrats won 12.9% in the poll, and 49 seats. Despite holding the balance of power, other parties refuse to work with them.
In his victory speech, Löfven ruled out any cooperation with the Sweden Democrats, which despite the efforts of Åkesson to rebrand it as a non-racist party, has its roots in the Swedish Nazi movement.
"You can't avoid taking us into account if you want to run the country," the Sweden Democrat leader, Jimme Akesson, told cheering supporters. "We are holding the absolute balance of power now."
"Remember, 87% of Sweden didn't vote for them," he said to the cheers of the activists and journalists gathered at the victory party. "Even if the Sweden Democrats had even higher numbers, we would not cooperate."
Lofven said the Sweden Democrats had "no right to be king makers" despite their election gains.
Löfven hinted instead at deals with the two smaller parties in the country's rightwing alliance, whose combined 11.5% share would bring them close to a majority. "I want to say that the hand is extended to other democratic parties," he said. "Our country is too small for conflict."
"Remember that 87% of Swedes didn't vote for them," he told Reuters. "We will have a strong government that won't depend on the Sweden Democrats."
Löfven's bargaining position has been strengthened by his party's unexpectedly strong result. The Social Democrats won 31.2% of the vote, higher than almost all surveys had suggested during the campaign, and ahead of what the party polled in 2010.
Lofven, a former welder and trade union negotiator, now faces hard and protracted negotiations to form a government. While the Social Democrats are the biggest party, it was one of their worst electoral results in a century.
Their most likely coalition partners, the Green party, however, took just 6.8% of the vote, after polling above 10% for most of the campaign.
"It is clear that from a broader perspective that this is difficult for Sweden," said the centre-right finance minister, Anders Borg. "We go from having one of Europe's strongest governments to having a weak government power with considerable uncertainty about economic policy."
Fredrik Reinfeldt, Sweden's outgoing prime minister, said he would step down on Monday as PM and leader of the Moderate party. "The election is over," he said. "Sweden has made its decision. I will hand in my notice tomorrow. All these years under the Alliance have been fantastic."
In a blow for the centre-left opposition, the Feminist Initiative party got 3.1%, below the threshold for parliamentary seats.
Reinfeldt has been lauded internationally for the skill with which his government steered Sweden through the global economic crisis over its eight years in power. But within Sweden, it has faced complaints of falling standards of public services, particularly those operated by private companies under the country's welfare reforms.
A win for the centre-left in a weak minority government could also be another nail in the coffin for reform in the region, where governments in Norway, Finland and Denmark are holding back on trimming their expensive welfare states.
Reinfeldt's minority government benefitted from the tacit support of the far right, whose MPs voted in favour of an overwhelming majority of their measures. But it has always refused any formal cooperation. Indeed, Reinfeldt began this year's election campaign with a call to Swedes to "open your hearts" to greater numbers of refugees.
A defeat for Reinfeldt robs Germany and the UK of a voice in the troubled bloc for fiscal prudence and reform. Lofven has campaigned for more growth and investment and higher taxes on companies and the wealthy in the European Union.
Under Reinfeldt, Sweden lost much of its image as a socialist welfare state. The country's tax burden fell four percentage points, to 45% of GDP, below that of France, while taxes on inheritance and wealth were lowered or abolished. More Michelin star restaurants than ever opened in Stockholm.
"These have been fantastic years where the alliance have taken responsibility for Sweden," Reinfeldt told party supporters on announcing his resignation. "My hope is that the journey will continue, but it will be without my participation."
Many Swedes are worried that changes under Reinfeldt have gone too far, weakening healthcare, allowing business to profit from schools at the expense of results and dividing a nation that has prided itself on equality into haves and have-nots.
Voters have been shocked by scandals over privately run state welfare – including one case where carers at a home for the elderly were reportedly weighing diapers to save money – and bankruptcies of privately run schools.
"We need to re-find our values, those that say we take care of each other, that it is not all about the rich getting it better," said Sofia Bolinder after voting in the suburb of Skarpnack in southern Stockholm. Bolinder, in her 30s, said she voted for a party "on the left".
Widely admired for its triple A-rated economy, stable government and liberal attitude to immigration, Sweden nevertheless faces significant challenges, which a weak government will struggle to deal with.
Unemployment is high at 8%, hitting immigrants and young people especially, and a potential housing bubble threatens economic stability. Widespread riots last year in Stockholm's poor immigrant suburbs highlighted a growing underclass in Sweden, which has had the fastest-growing inequality of any OECD nation.
The rise of the far right points to a society starting to question its role as what Reinfeldt calls "a humanitarian superpower".
The number of asylum seekers from countries like Syria is expected to reach 80,000 this year. Even Reinfeldt has said government finances would be strained due to the cost of new arrivals. They were figures that played into the hands of the far right.
The Social Democrats plan to spend around 40bn crowns (£3.4bn) to improve education, create jobs and strengthen welfare by raising taxes on restaurants, banks and the wealthy.
The centre-left parties include the Left party – formerly Sweden's communist party – which wants to raise income and corporate taxes and exclude profit-making businesses from schools and welfare, policies that the Social Democrats and Greens reject.
The other centre-left party, the Greens, have campaigned to end nuclear power in Sweden.
The Liberal and Centre parties, the two smallest in the government, have snubbed Lofven's call for a broad-based government, raising the threat of deadlock after the election, or, in the worst case scenario, a new vote.
The Swedish crown weakened around 3 ore versus the euro in early Asian trade after it became clear both sides would be short of forming a majority.
"It is going to be very difficult to form a government," said Swedbank economist Knut Hallberg.