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Leadership at last! But where will the Iraq war machine take Australia? Leadership at last! But where will the Iraq war machine take Australia?
(35 minutes later)
Grim faced security and military wallahs, wreathed in garlands, flank their sombre political bosses against a backdrop of flags and crests. The stage is set for a new round of Terror Theatre.Grim faced security and military wallahs, wreathed in garlands, flank their sombre political bosses against a backdrop of flags and crests. The stage is set for a new round of Terror Theatre.
The setting is important. It doesn’t matter if the mission, the strategy or outcome is unclear: the show is the important thing, particularly for politicians who have otherwise shown a remarkable incapacity for leadership. This is Team Abbott’s show. The roll of drums, Australian boots on the ground, jets in the air, sniffer dogs at the footy. Leadership at last.The setting is important. It doesn’t matter if the mission, the strategy or outcome is unclear: the show is the important thing, particularly for politicians who have otherwise shown a remarkable incapacity for leadership. This is Team Abbott’s show. The roll of drums, Australian boots on the ground, jets in the air, sniffer dogs at the footy. Leadership at last.
It took only a year after the election for the Coalition to get into someone else’s war. It should not surprise, because the Liberals have always been the war party. The challenge will be to convince citizens that our membership of the Coalition of The Willing is a guarantee of their safety.It took only a year after the election for the Coalition to get into someone else’s war. It should not surprise, because the Liberals have always been the war party. The challenge will be to convince citizens that our membership of the Coalition of The Willing is a guarantee of their safety.
From the relative comfort of Australia, there is a disconnect when faced with this argument. What do those terrible beheadings mean to us in the south Pacific? How is our security at stake by the display of medievalism on the other side of the planet?From the relative comfort of Australia, there is a disconnect when faced with this argument. What do those terrible beheadings mean to us in the south Pacific? How is our security at stake by the display of medievalism on the other side of the planet?
The scenario put by prime minister Abbott and the director general of security David Irvine is that there are three sources of perceived threat: people fighting in the Middle East who might return to Australia wanting to do wicked things; people who are already back here after being engaged in the war; people who haven’t been anywhere but might want to do bad things on home soil.The scenario put by prime minister Abbott and the director general of security David Irvine is that there are three sources of perceived threat: people fighting in the Middle East who might return to Australia wanting to do wicked things; people who are already back here after being engaged in the war; people who haven’t been anywhere but might want to do bad things on home soil.
There are roughly 10,000 foreign fighters who have taken up arms on behalf of Isis. Irving says a “large number” are Australians – 70 to 80. In fact, this is about half the number from Australia the government has previously suggested were fighting in the region.There are roughly 10,000 foreign fighters who have taken up arms on behalf of Isis. Irving says a “large number” are Australians – 70 to 80. In fact, this is about half the number from Australia the government has previously suggested were fighting in the region.
If Australians seeking to come home present a credible threat the emphasis, surely, should be on preventing their return. That is where the effort must lie. Our own airports should be the front line, not Fallujah. Passports can be cancelled and even if forged documents are used as the way back, it should not be beyond the skills and resources of the machinery of state to counter that.If Australians seeking to come home present a credible threat the emphasis, surely, should be on preventing their return. That is where the effort must lie. Our own airports should be the front line, not Fallujah. Passports can be cancelled and even if forged documents are used as the way back, it should not be beyond the skills and resources of the machinery of state to counter that.
Our security would be better protected if the money to be squandered in another war effort is invested in homeland technology, biometrics and electronic screening. ASIO is well enough resourced for us to expect a level of competency that would prevent the return of dangerous people travelling on Australian documents. Our security would be better protected if the money to be squandered in another war effort is invested in homeland technology, biometrics and electronic screening. Asio is well enough resourced for us to expect a level of competency that would prevent the return of dangerous people travelling on Australian documents.
Yet we saddle up knowing nothing of the historical or cultural context of what has gripped northern Iraq and Syria. No one in the War party has made the most cursory attempt to get to grips with the forces that are at play. Instead, the reflex position is to answer the call of our great and powerful US ally as some sort of speculative down payment on a security insurance policy. Yet we saddle up knowing nothing of the historical or cultural context of what has gripped northern Iraq and Syria. No one in the war party has made the most cursory attempt to get to grips with the forces that are at play. Instead, the reflex position is to answer the call of our great and powerful US ally as some sort of speculative down payment on a security insurance policy.
The opposition tags along for fear of being outgunned in this war of overwrought opportunism. At the same time Scott Morrison, who has somehow interposed himself as some sort of security saviour, has been sending Iraqi and Syrian asylum seekers back to their disturbed homelands.The opposition tags along for fear of being outgunned in this war of overwrought opportunism. At the same time Scott Morrison, who has somehow interposed himself as some sort of security saviour, has been sending Iraqi and Syrian asylum seekers back to their disturbed homelands.
Then there is the home grown danger: the lone wolf within. This too is folded into the case put by the war machine. Irvine told a media conference on Friday: “I worry, and worried for five and a half years, about lone wolves popping up who’ve avoided the radar in some way or another.” Abbott added that some 30 Australians we know went to Afghanistan and Pakistan a decade or so back to work with the Taliban. “Some 25 of them returned to Australia and about two-thirds of those were subsequently involved in terrorist activities here in Australia. I think nine were convicted of terrorist activities here in Australia.” That’s slightly more than the 20 returnees Abbott was bandying about earlier last week. The numbers seem rubbery.Then there is the home grown danger: the lone wolf within. This too is folded into the case put by the war machine. Irvine told a media conference on Friday: “I worry, and worried for five and a half years, about lone wolves popping up who’ve avoided the radar in some way or another.” Abbott added that some 30 Australians we know went to Afghanistan and Pakistan a decade or so back to work with the Taliban. “Some 25 of them returned to Australia and about two-thirds of those were subsequently involved in terrorist activities here in Australia. I think nine were convicted of terrorist activities here in Australia.” That’s slightly more than the 20 returnees Abbott was bandying about earlier last week. The numbers seem rubbery.
The prospect of a lone wolf attack is not a fresh danger and it doesn’t need the security alert to shift a notch. It certainly won’t be overcome be sending forces into an impenetrable tribal and religious war – in fact, that engagement will significantly enhance the prospect of a threat on home soil. The passports of some Australians who pose a risk have been cancelled and others still here are being monitored. However, Abbott reassured us that a terror attack is not imminent. On Friday he said: “we have no specific intelligence of particular plots”. The prospect of a lone wolf attack is not a fresh danger and it doesn’t need the security alert to shift a notch. It certainly won’t be overcome by sending forces into an impenetrable tribal and religious war – in fact, that engagement will significantly increase the prospect of a threat on home soil. The passports of some Australians who pose a risk have been cancelled and others still here are being monitored. However, Abbott reassured us that a terror attack is not imminent. On Friday he said: “we have no specific intelligence of particular plots”.
Seeking to cut the head off this wave of jihadists in the sand of Iraq will not stop the next wave. As John Blaxland from the Strategic and Defence studies Centre at ANU wrote last week: “somehow we need to focus instead on addressing the point of incubation” – the cause, the why, the condition. Otherwise, we’ve learned nothing from a long and sorry history of misconceived Middle East adventurism.Seeking to cut the head off this wave of jihadists in the sand of Iraq will not stop the next wave. As John Blaxland from the Strategic and Defence studies Centre at ANU wrote last week: “somehow we need to focus instead on addressing the point of incubation” – the cause, the why, the condition. Otherwise, we’ve learned nothing from a long and sorry history of misconceived Middle East adventurism.