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Scots vote's 'deep effect' on Wales, says IWA 'Radical' change after referendum, Andrews predicts
(35 minutes later)
Whatever the result, next week's Scottish independence referendum could have a deep effect on the whole UK, the Institute of Welsh Affairs (IWA) has warned. The new Welsh public services minister has said he expects "radical" UK constitutional change regardless of the Scottish referendum's outcome.
Its co-founder Geraint Talfan Davies said there was a chance to reform the British constitution if Scotland votes No on 18 September. Leighton Andrews told the BBC the vote would have "major implications" whether Scotland remained in the UK or not.
A conference is taking place on the referendum's implications for Wales. Mr Andrews was speaking at a conference considering the referendum's implications for Wales.
It comes as recent polls suggest the Yes and No camps are neck-and-neck. Plaid Cymru leader Leanne Wood said it was time for Wales to re-negotiate its relationship with the rest of the UK.
Speaking ahead of the event at the Wales Millennium Centre on Thursday, Mr Talfan Davies, the former head of BBC Cymru Wales, said: "The effect of this vote could be very deep on the whole country - on the United Kingdom as a whole and on individual parts of the UK. Mr Andrews rejoined the cabinet on Thursday, to lead planned major changes to local councils.
"There could have an effect on Northern Ireland, for certain if Scotland voted Yes. He resigned 15 months ago after campaigning to keep a school open in his own constituency, against his own guidelines as the then education education minister.
"If Scotland votes No and stays within the union, there's a chance then to reform the British Constitution. I think this needs widespread reform." The conference at the Wales Millennium Centre, involving politicians and constitutional experts, came as recent polls suggested the Yes and No camps were neck-and-neck.
Promises Mr Andrews, the AM for Rhondda, said issues such as the role of the House of Lords would have to be addressed, as a result of next Thursday's result.
He said that could include a reform of the House of Lords and there was also a need to look more closely at how England is governed. "I think it will have major implications for the UK regardless of the result of the referendum," he said.
"But there's one problem," Mr Talfan Davies added. "I have no doubt we are now going to see radical constitutional reform in the UK, regardless of the result next week.
"If Scotland stays in the union, it would be more difficult to change the financial order. "It's not just about the powers open to Wales.
"We know that at present Scotland get much more perhaps than they should from the Barnett formula. "I think it's also about what makes a new Union, what's the structure of representation across the UK, what are the powers of the House of Lords?
"And of course, Wales, according to the Holtham Report, gets some £400m less than we should. "Is it not time for a second chamber in the UK that reflects the nations and regions of the UK?
"But because of the promises people are making during the campaign, I think that it will perhaps be more difficult to change that." "What happens for England? There are a whole series of questions that will have to be addressed."
Prof Roger Scully, of Cardiff University's Wales Governance Centre, told the conference that it is was remarkable that the Yes and No sides were so close, according to the polls, a week before the vote. First Minister Carwyn Jones has called for a constitutional convention after the referendum to look again at the way the nations of the UK are governed.
But the economist and former Welsh government advisor, Prof Gerry Holtham, told the conference the outcome of the vote would not lead to such a constitutional convention or conference.
He said Wales and Northern Ireland do not know what they would want from such a process, and the current political set-up suits the "British establishment".
'Mass movement'
However Ms Wood said the build-up to the 18 September referendum had been inspiring, seeming to be a "rebirth almost of democracy".
"People are involved, it's a mass movement, people are well-informed, they're engaged," she said.
"And regardless of what the result is on September 18 something very special has happened.
"And I think we can replicate that here in Wales too when we go to the people and ask them about the kind of settlement that they want to see.
"There's a consensus that the settlement we have is not fit for purpose and Scotland opens up opportunities for us on that front."
Prof Roger Scully, of Cardiff University's Wales Governance Centre, told the conference it was remarkable that the Yes and No sides were so close, according to the polls, a week before the vote.
He said there were three reasons why he expected the No vote to be ahead next Thursday.He said there were three reasons why he expected the No vote to be ahead next Thursday.
Firstly, he said, the No campaigners were more numerous and more powerful, the pro-Union side started with a much larger advantage in the opinion polls and, thirdly, research suggested constitutional referendums tended to be strongly biased towards the status quo.Firstly, he said, the No campaigners were more numerous and more powerful, the pro-Union side started with a much larger advantage in the opinion polls and, thirdly, research suggested constitutional referendums tended to be strongly biased towards the status quo.
'Change everything''Change everything'
Prof Scully added that he would put his money on the No campaign pulling through, if he was forced to call the result, but "not with a lot of confidence".Prof Scully added that he would put his money on the No campaign pulling through, if he was forced to call the result, but "not with a lot of confidence".
He said the Yes supporters could still win, as their campaign had been so strong on the ground.He said the Yes supporters could still win, as their campaign had been so strong on the ground.
Prof Laura McAllister, of Liverpool University, told the conference that she thought the No campaign had "shot itself in the foot" by refusing to put a 'devo max' option on the referendum ballot. Prof Laura McAllister, of Liverpool University, told the conference she thought the No campaign had "shot itself in the foot" by refusing to put a "devo max" option on the referendum ballot.
She accused the pro-Union lobby of tactically making "one mistake after another".She accused the pro-Union lobby of tactically making "one mistake after another".
BBC Wales Welsh affairs editor Vaughan Roderick told the conference that the most important part of the referendum process had already taken place, and that was the recognition that Scotland could consider voting Yes. BBC Wales Welsh affairs editor Vaughan Roderick said the most important part of the referendum process had already taken place, and that was the recognition Scotland could consider voting Yes.
"That will change everything," he said, predicting that it would lead to "the most interesting period in memory"."That will change everything," he said, predicting that it would lead to "the most interesting period in memory".
But the Holtham Report's author, economist and former Welsh government advisor Prof Gerry Holtham, said the outcome of the vote would not lead to a UK constitutional convention or conference.
He said Wales and Northern Ireland do not know what they would want from such a process, and that the current political setup suits the "British establishment".
The IWA conference is sponsored by the UK's Changing Union project.
UK Changing Union chair Prof Richard Wyn Jones said earlier: "Anyone who has visited Scotland recently will testify that there is a remarkably broad-based and wide-ranging conversation taking place across Scottish society about how that country could and should be governed.
"This week's conference is an important opportunity for us to think through what the future might hold."