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Scots vote's 'deep effect' on Wales, says IWA Scots vote's 'deep effect' on Wales, says IWA
(35 minutes later)
Whatever the result, next week's Scottish independence referendum could have a deep effect on the whole UK, the Institute of Welsh Affairs (IWA) has warned.Whatever the result, next week's Scottish independence referendum could have a deep effect on the whole UK, the Institute of Welsh Affairs (IWA) has warned.
Its co-founder Geraint Talfan Davies said there was a chance to reform the British constitution if Scotland votes No on 18 September.Its co-founder Geraint Talfan Davies said there was a chance to reform the British constitution if Scotland votes No on 18 September.
A conference is taking place on the referendum's implications for Wales.A conference is taking place on the referendum's implications for Wales.
It comes as recent polls suggest the Yes and No camps are neck-and-neck.It comes as recent polls suggest the Yes and No camps are neck-and-neck.
Speaking ahead of the event at the Millennium Stadium on Thursday, Mr Talfan Davies, the former head of BBC Cymru Wales, said: "The effect of this vote could be very deep on the whole country - on the United Kingdom as a whole and on individual parts of the UK.Speaking ahead of the event at the Millennium Stadium on Thursday, Mr Talfan Davies, the former head of BBC Cymru Wales, said: "The effect of this vote could be very deep on the whole country - on the United Kingdom as a whole and on individual parts of the UK.
"There could have an effect on Northern Ireland, for certain if Scotland voted Yes."There could have an effect on Northern Ireland, for certain if Scotland voted Yes.
"If Scotland votes No and stays within the union, there's a chance then to reform the British Constitution. I think this needs widespread reform.""If Scotland votes No and stays within the union, there's a chance then to reform the British Constitution. I think this needs widespread reform."
PromisesPromises
He said that could include a reform of the House of Lords and there was also a need to look more closely at how England is governed.He said that could include a reform of the House of Lords and there was also a need to look more closely at how England is governed.
"But there's one problem," Mr Talfan Davies added."But there's one problem," Mr Talfan Davies added.
"If Scotland stays in the union, it would be more difficult to change the financial order."If Scotland stays in the union, it would be more difficult to change the financial order.
"We know that at present Scotland get much more perhaps than they should from the Barnett formula."We know that at present Scotland get much more perhaps than they should from the Barnett formula.
"And of course, Wales, according to the Holtham Report, gets some £400m less than we should."And of course, Wales, according to the Holtham Report, gets some £400m less than we should.
"But because of the promises people are making during the campaign, I think that it will perhaps be more difficult to change that.""But because of the promises people are making during the campaign, I think that it will perhaps be more difficult to change that."
Prof Roger Scully, of Cardiff University's Wales Governance Centre, told the conference that it is was remarkable that the Yes and No sides were so close, according to the polls, a week before the vote.Prof Roger Scully, of Cardiff University's Wales Governance Centre, told the conference that it is was remarkable that the Yes and No sides were so close, according to the polls, a week before the vote.
He said there were three reasons why he expected the No vote to be ahead next Thursday.He said there were three reasons why he expected the No vote to be ahead next Thursday.
Firstly, he said, the No campaigners were more numerous and more powerful, the pro-Union side started with a much larger advantage in the opinion polls and, thirdly, research suggested constitutional referendums tended to be strongly biased towards the status quo.Firstly, he said, the No campaigners were more numerous and more powerful, the pro-Union side started with a much larger advantage in the opinion polls and, thirdly, research suggested constitutional referendums tended to be strongly biased towards the status quo.
'Change everything''Change everything'
Prof Scully added that he would put his money on the No campaign pulling through, if he was forced to call the result, but "not with a lot of confidence".Prof Scully added that he would put his money on the No campaign pulling through, if he was forced to call the result, but "not with a lot of confidence".
He said the Yes supporters could still win, as their campaign had been so strong on the ground.He said the Yes supporters could still win, as their campaign had been so strong on the ground.
Prof Laura McAllister, of Liverpool University, told the conference that she thought the No campaign had "shot itself in the foot" by refusing to put a 'devo max' option on the referendum ballot.
She accused the pro-Union lobby of tactically making "one mistake after another".
BBC Wales Welsh affairs editor Vaughan Roderick told the conference that the most important part of the referendum process had already taken place, and that was the recognition that Scotland could consider voting Yes.BBC Wales Welsh affairs editor Vaughan Roderick told the conference that the most important part of the referendum process had already taken place, and that was the recognition that Scotland could consider voting Yes.
"That will change everything," he said, predicting that it would lead to "the most interesting period in memory"."That will change everything," he said, predicting that it would lead to "the most interesting period in memory".
But the Holtham Report's author, economist and former Welsh government advisor Prof Gerry Holtham, said the outcome of the vote would not lead to a UK constitutional convention or conference.
He said Wales and Northern Ireland do not know what they would want from such a process, and that the current political setup suits the "British establishment".
The IWA conference is sponsored by the UK's Changing Union project.The IWA conference is sponsored by the UK's Changing Union project.
UK Changing Union chair Prof Richard Wyn Jones said earlier: "Anyone who has visited Scotland recently will testify that there is a remarkably broad-based and wide-ranging conversation taking place across Scottish society about how that country could and should be governed.UK Changing Union chair Prof Richard Wyn Jones said earlier: "Anyone who has visited Scotland recently will testify that there is a remarkably broad-based and wide-ranging conversation taking place across Scottish society about how that country could and should be governed.
"This week's conference is an important opportunity for us to think through what the future might hold.""This week's conference is an important opportunity for us to think through what the future might hold."