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Scots vote's 'deep effect' on Wales, says IWA | Scots vote's 'deep effect' on Wales, says IWA |
(about 1 hour later) | |
Whatever the result, next week's Scottish independence referendum could have a deep effect on the whole UK, the Institute of Welsh Affairs (IWA) has warned. | Whatever the result, next week's Scottish independence referendum could have a deep effect on the whole UK, the Institute of Welsh Affairs (IWA) has warned. |
Its co-founder Geraint Talfan Davies said there was a chance to reform the British constitution if Scotland votes No on 18 September. | Its co-founder Geraint Talfan Davies said there was a chance to reform the British constitution if Scotland votes No on 18 September. |
A conference is taking place on the referendum's implications for Wales. | A conference is taking place on the referendum's implications for Wales. |
It comes as recent polls suggest the Yes and No camps are neck-and-neck. | It comes as recent polls suggest the Yes and No camps are neck-and-neck. |
Speaking ahead of the event at the Millennium Stadium on Thursday, Mr Talfan Davies, the former head of BBC Cymru Wales, said: "The effect of this vote could be very deep on the whole country - on the United Kingdom as a whole and on individual parts of the UK. | Speaking ahead of the event at the Millennium Stadium on Thursday, Mr Talfan Davies, the former head of BBC Cymru Wales, said: "The effect of this vote could be very deep on the whole country - on the United Kingdom as a whole and on individual parts of the UK. |
"There could have an effect on Northern Ireland, for certain if Scotland voted Yes. | "There could have an effect on Northern Ireland, for certain if Scotland voted Yes. |
"If Scotland votes No and stays within the union, there's a chance then to reform the British Constitution. I think this needs widespread reform." | "If Scotland votes No and stays within the union, there's a chance then to reform the British Constitution. I think this needs widespread reform." |
Promises | Promises |
He said that could include a reform of the House of Lords and there was also a need to look more closely at how England is governed. | He said that could include a reform of the House of Lords and there was also a need to look more closely at how England is governed. |
"But there's one problem," Mr Talfan Davies added. | "But there's one problem," Mr Talfan Davies added. |
"If Scotland stays in the union, it would be more difficult to change the financial order. | "If Scotland stays in the union, it would be more difficult to change the financial order. |
"We know that at present Scotland get much more perhaps than they should from the Barnett formula. | "We know that at present Scotland get much more perhaps than they should from the Barnett formula. |
"And of course, Wales, according to the Holtham Report, gets some £400m less than we should. | "And of course, Wales, according to the Holtham Report, gets some £400m less than we should. |
"But because of the promises people are making during the campaign, I think that it will perhaps be more difficult to change that." | "But because of the promises people are making during the campaign, I think that it will perhaps be more difficult to change that." |
Prof Roger Scully, of Cardiff University's Wales Governance Centre, told the conference that it is was remarkable that the Yes and No sides were so close, according to the polls, a week before the vote. | |
He said there were three reasons why he expected the No vote to be ahead next Thursday. | |
Firstly, he said, the No campaigners were more numerous and more powerful, the pro-Union side started with a much larger advantage in the opinion polls and, thirdly, research suggested constitutional referendums tended to be strongly biased towards the status quo. | |
The IWA conference is sponsored by the UK's Changing Union project. | The IWA conference is sponsored by the UK's Changing Union project. |
UK Changing Union chair Prof Richard Wyn Jones said earlier: "Anyone who has visited Scotland recently will testify that there is a remarkably broad-based and wide-ranging conversation taking place across Scottish society about how that country could and should be governed. | |
"This week's conference is an important opportunity for us to think through what the future might hold." | "This week's conference is an important opportunity for us to think through what the future might hold." |