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Nato barked, but will that help Ukraine, and help deter Putin? Nato barked, but will that help Ukraine, and help deter Putin?
(8 months later)
Nato leaders were desperate to breathe new life into the military alliance that was in danger of expiring. And if rhetoric was the test they certainly passed it. Nato leaders were desperate to breathe new life into the military alliance that was in danger of expiring. And if rhetoric was the test they certainly passed it.
Putin was the villain, roundly and repeatedly attacked at last week's Nato summit in Newport, south Wales, over his behaviour and actions in Ukraine - as was the extreme Islamist group, Isis, for its brutality in Syria and Iraq. Putin was the villain, roundly and repeatedly attacked at last week's Nato summit in Newport, south Wales, over his behaviour and actions in Ukraine - as was the extreme Islamist group, Isis, for its brutality in Syria and Iraq.
Behind the rhetoric, in a small briefing room by the summit's media centre – some distance from the heavily protected Celtic Manor resort where the presidents and prime ministers were meeting, a calmer analysis of Putin was being discussed.Behind the rhetoric, in a small briefing room by the summit's media centre – some distance from the heavily protected Celtic Manor resort where the presidents and prime ministers were meeting, a calmer analysis of Putin was being discussed.
Putin, said Michael Clarke, director general of the Royal United Services Institute thinktank (Rusi), was driven by Russia's weakness, not strength. "Putin has a vision and tactical ability but doesn't really have a strategy", said Clarke, adding that the Russian president was a risk taker.Putin, said Michael Clarke, director general of the Royal United Services Institute thinktank (Rusi), was driven by Russia's weakness, not strength. "Putin has a vision and tactical ability but doesn't really have a strategy", said Clarke, adding that the Russian president was a risk taker.
Jenny Mathers of Aberystwyth university, suggested that Putin's stance on Ukraine could rebound since his own country was made up of different ethnic groups who could demand more autonomy in Russia.Jenny Mathers of Aberystwyth university, suggested that Putin's stance on Ukraine could rebound since his own country was made up of different ethnic groups who could demand more autonomy in Russia.
Moscow might well regard as provocative Nato's decision to help set up a "permanent military training facility" in Georgia and " trust funds" to help Ukraine modernise and equip its armed forces.Moscow might well regard as provocative Nato's decision to help set up a "permanent military training facility" in Georgia and " trust funds" to help Ukraine modernise and equip its armed forces.
Nato, meanwhile will engage in what Lieutenant General Sir Adrian Bradshaw, its deputy supreme allied commander, called a "steady drumbeat of exercises".Nato, meanwhile will engage in what Lieutenant General Sir Adrian Bradshaw, its deputy supreme allied commander, called a "steady drumbeat of exercises".
Bradshaw said Nato's latest plan for a 4,000-strong "rapid reaction force", part of a "readiness action plan " would be deployable, when it is ready, within 48 hours.Bradshaw said Nato's latest plan for a 4,000-strong "rapid reaction force", part of a "readiness action plan " would be deployable, when it is ready, within 48 hours.
A number of countries, mainly Baltic nations, offered to provide the force with what Nato officials called "reception facilities". (Under the terms of the Nato-Russia Founding Act of 1997, which German chancellor Angela Merkel emphasised at the summit remained in place, Nato agreed there would be no "additional permanent stationing of substantial combat forces".) A number of countries, mainly Baltic nations, offered to provide the force with what Nato officials called "reception facilities". (Under the terms of the Nato-Russia Founding Act of 1997, which German chancellor Angela Merkel emphasised at the summit remained in place, Nato agreed there would be no "additional permanent stationing of substantial combat forces".)
Ukraine is not a member of Nato and will not be any time soon, in the view of most west European governments. What the Nato summit did was reinforce the message that an attack on one member would be regarded as an attack on all (as set out in article 5 of the Nato Treaty).Ukraine is not a member of Nato and will not be any time soon, in the view of most west European governments. What the Nato summit did was reinforce the message that an attack on one member would be regarded as an attack on all (as set out in article 5 of the Nato Treaty).
The question that remains is what practical relevance will the new Nato force have in an age of what is called "hybrid warfare" or "ambiguous warfare".The question that remains is what practical relevance will the new Nato force have in an age of what is called "hybrid warfare" or "ambiguous warfare".
What was witnessed in eastern Ukraine, Bradshaw, a former director of UK special forces, told journalists, was a range of measures – "agitational, social, and political activity", and cyber attacks, as well as such "old fashion coercion" as the parking of tanks.What was witnessed in eastern Ukraine, Bradshaw, a former director of UK special forces, told journalists, was a range of measures – "agitational, social, and political activity", and cyber attacks, as well as such "old fashion coercion" as the parking of tanks.
Can Nato, a creature of the twentieth century, meet the security challenges facing European countries in the twenty-first? That remains the challenge.Can Nato, a creature of the twentieth century, meet the security challenges facing European countries in the twenty-first? That remains the challenge.
Despite all the talk about the need to increase military spending because of a new Russian threat, there was no agreement at the summit to abide by the Nato commitment whereby members would devote at least 2% of their GDP on defence. It is a commitment only a handful of its 28 members, including the US and UK but not Germany, currently honour. Nato leaders agreed only to stop cutting their defence budgets.Despite all the talk about the need to increase military spending because of a new Russian threat, there was no agreement at the summit to abide by the Nato commitment whereby members would devote at least 2% of their GDP on defence. It is a commitment only a handful of its 28 members, including the US and UK but not Germany, currently honour. Nato leaders agreed only to stop cutting their defence budgets.
Yet a more effective capability, and deterrence, against new threats, including cyber warfare, does not necessarily need more money. It needs a radical switch in resources, notably to more effective and relevant intelligence-gathering.Yet a more effective capability, and deterrence, against new threats, including cyber warfare, does not necessarily need more money. It needs a radical switch in resources, notably to more effective and relevant intelligence-gathering.
If Nato was slow to realise what Moscow was up to in eastern Ukraine, it was also slow to appreciate what Isis fighters were capable of in Syria and Iraq. King Abdullah of Jordan came to the Nato summit. But he was anxious to keep as allow a profile as possible.If Nato was slow to realise what Moscow was up to in eastern Ukraine, it was also slow to appreciate what Isis fighters were capable of in Syria and Iraq. King Abdullah of Jordan came to the Nato summit. But he was anxious to keep as allow a profile as possible.
The task facing the US and UK is to persuade other countries in the region (in addition to Turkey, a Nato member) to help.The task facing the US and UK is to persuade other countries in the region (in addition to Turkey, a Nato member) to help.
• I will be away for two weeks, by which time we will know the result of the Scottish referendum. Defence chiefs insist publicly they have no contingency plan in the event of a Yes vote. They may be preparing one now, given the narrowing of the opinion polls. Whatever the chancellor, George Osborne, says, the heads of the armed forces, and the first sea lord in particular, might well be hoping, in the event of a Yes vote, for a "grand bargain" in which the Trident nuclear weapons submarine base could stay in Scotland, for some years at least - in return for Scotland keeping the pound.• I will be away for two weeks, by which time we will know the result of the Scottish referendum. Defence chiefs insist publicly they have no contingency plan in the event of a Yes vote. They may be preparing one now, given the narrowing of the opinion polls. Whatever the chancellor, George Osborne, says, the heads of the armed forces, and the first sea lord in particular, might well be hoping, in the event of a Yes vote, for a "grand bargain" in which the Trident nuclear weapons submarine base could stay in Scotland, for some years at least - in return for Scotland keeping the pound.