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UKIP's Clacton poll lead played down by Michael Fallon | UKIP's Clacton poll lead played down by Michael Fallon |
(2 days later) | |
A Tory minister has played down a poll suggesting his party will suffer a resounding defeat at the hands of UKIP in the Clacton by-election. | A Tory minister has played down a poll suggesting his party will suffer a resounding defeat at the hands of UKIP in the Clacton by-election. |
Defence Secretary Michael Fallon put UKIP's 4 point lead down to the publicity surrounding Douglas Carswell's defection to the party. | |
Mr Carswell quit as Tory MP for Clacton on Friday and said he would seek re-election as a UKIP candidate. | Mr Carswell quit as Tory MP for Clacton on Friday and said he would seek re-election as a UKIP candidate. |
The poll gave UKIP 64%, the Tories 20%, Labour 13% and Lib Dems 2%. | The poll gave UKIP 64%, the Tories 20%, Labour 13% and Lib Dems 2%. |
The Conservatives are thought to want to push ahead with an early by-election, with newspaper reports suggesting it could be held on 9 October - a week after David Cameron's party conference speech in Birmingham. | The Conservatives are thought to want to push ahead with an early by-election, with newspaper reports suggesting it could be held on 9 October - a week after David Cameron's party conference speech in Birmingham. |
The party has yet to select a candidate to take on Mr Carswell, who is defending a 12,000 majority. | The party has yet to select a candidate to take on Mr Carswell, who is defending a 12,000 majority. |
A Survation poll for the Mail on Sunday suggested he or she will face a struggle to avoid a humiliating defeat. | A Survation poll for the Mail on Sunday suggested he or she will face a struggle to avoid a humiliating defeat. |
'Publicity boost' | 'Publicity boost' |
In a sign of Mr Carswell's popularity in the Essex seaside constituency, 34% of those indicating they would vote UKIP said it was because they liked their former Conservative MP, while 57% said it was because they liked UKIP and 9% said it would be a protest vote. | In a sign of Mr Carswell's popularity in the Essex seaside constituency, 34% of those indicating they would vote UKIP said it was because they liked their former Conservative MP, while 57% said it was because they liked UKIP and 9% said it would be a protest vote. |
Among Conservative voters, 49% said Mr Carswell was a "hero" despite his defection to a rival party, with just 17% saying he was a traitor. | Among Conservative voters, 49% said Mr Carswell was a "hero" despite his defection to a rival party, with just 17% saying he was a traitor. |
More than half of all those questioned favoured quitting the European Union, with 54% supporting a British exit and 26% opposed to cutting ties to Brussels. | More than half of all those questioned favoured quitting the European Union, with 54% supporting a British exit and 26% opposed to cutting ties to Brussels. |
The poll of 700 voters followed Mr Carswell's defection last week. | The poll of 700 voters followed Mr Carswell's defection last week. |
Asked by Sky News' Dermot Murnaghan if the Conservatives might as well give up on Clacton, Mr Fallon said: "No. He has had a lot of publicity through his defection and it is obviously disappointing. | Asked by Sky News' Dermot Murnaghan if the Conservatives might as well give up on Clacton, Mr Fallon said: "No. He has had a lot of publicity through his defection and it is obviously disappointing. |
"But it is also not very logical. He stood for election last time when there wasn't a referendum pledge and now there is a referendum pledge he has decided to leave." | "But it is also not very logical. He stood for election last time when there wasn't a referendum pledge and now there is a referendum pledge he has decided to leave." |
Mr Fallon ruled out an electoral pact with UKIP at next year's general election, adding: "I think people see the bigger point here. The only prospect of delivering an in/out referendum is a clear Conservative majority at the next election. | Mr Fallon ruled out an electoral pact with UKIP at next year's general election, adding: "I think people see the bigger point here. The only prospect of delivering an in/out referendum is a clear Conservative majority at the next election. |
"Anything else and you will end up with a Miliband government which wants no change at all in Europe." | "Anything else and you will end up with a Miliband government which wants no change at all in Europe." |
'Double or quits' | 'Double or quits' |
UKIP leader Nigel Farage told The Sun on Sunday a victory for his party in the Clacton by-election would create a "landslide in British politics", but added: "If we lose, then selling ourselves as a party that can win a significant number of seats will get a lot harder." | UKIP leader Nigel Farage told The Sun on Sunday a victory for his party in the Clacton by-election would create a "landslide in British politics", but added: "If we lose, then selling ourselves as a party that can win a significant number of seats will get a lot harder." |
He told the newspaper: "If Douglas wins this by-election, then there will be more and more people coming over to us. We could end up holding the balance of power by next May." | He told the newspaper: "If Douglas wins this by-election, then there will be more and more people coming over to us. We could end up holding the balance of power by next May." |
That was "utterly dependent" on the Clacton result, he said, but added: "I'm going to keep playing double or quits until I lose. But if I win three more hands, we'll be out of the EU and a free country again. | That was "utterly dependent" on the Clacton result, he said, but added: "I'm going to keep playing double or quits until I lose. But if I win three more hands, we'll be out of the EU and a free country again. |
"There is a massive appetite out there for change." | "There is a massive appetite out there for change." |
Mr Carswell said he had decided to defect to UKIP because he did not believe Mr Cameron was "serious" about reforming Britain's relationship with Europe. | Mr Carswell said he had decided to defect to UKIP because he did not believe Mr Cameron was "serious" about reforming Britain's relationship with Europe. |
The prime minister described his decision as "bizarre" and "counterproductive". | The prime minister described his decision as "bizarre" and "counterproductive". |
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