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| What next for 'Kamikaze Carswell' after the romance of revolt wears off? | What next for 'Kamikaze Carswell' after the romance of revolt wears off? |
| (34 minutes later) | |
| When the evening paper headlines scream that a political defection has "rocked" the prime minister of the day it's always best to sleep on the news to see if everyone has moved on to be rocked by something else by breakfast time. After all it's not even true that the Tory defector, Douglas Carswell, is Ukip's first MP. A previous Essex defector (remember Bob Spink anyone?) briefly enjoyed that distinction. | |
| As things look, rising tensions on the Russo-Ukrainian border are likely to prove more important in the larger scheme of world affairs than the ambush staged against David Cameron by one of his early backers, the MP for Harwich in Essex since 2005 and for Clacton on revised boundaries since 2010. Carswell is the man I once dubbed "Kamikaze Carswell'' and nowyou can see more clearly why. | |
| At first glance the politics of this are win-win for Nigel Farage who has finally decided to chance his own arm in another faded-but-charming south-east seaside resort – Broadstairs – on general election day. Carswell's attention-seeking gesture triggers a by-election and, as a popular, hard-working and principled local MP, he will probably win it over the protests of Ukip's incumbent candidate, Roger Lord. | At first glance the politics of this are win-win for Nigel Farage who has finally decided to chance his own arm in another faded-but-charming south-east seaside resort – Broadstairs – on general election day. Carswell's attention-seeking gesture triggers a by-election and, as a popular, hard-working and principled local MP, he will probably win it over the protests of Ukip's incumbent candidate, Roger Lord. |
| Wouldn't it be a bold stroke by Cameron to invite wannabe candidate, Mayor Boris Johnson, to become the Tories by-election standard-bearer in Clacton. Win or lose, Dave solves a problem. But what a gamble! How popular would "Boris Island" – the mayor's fantasy airport in the Thames Estuary – be in Clacton and genteel Frinton? I don't know, but let's find out. | Wouldn't it be a bold stroke by Cameron to invite wannabe candidate, Mayor Boris Johnson, to become the Tories by-election standard-bearer in Clacton. Win or lose, Dave solves a problem. But what a gamble! How popular would "Boris Island" – the mayor's fantasy airport in the Thames Estuary – be in Clacton and genteel Frinton? I don't know, but let's find out. |
| It's worth noting here on Roger Lord's behalf that under Farage's tight leadership, Ukip's chaotic inner-party democracy has given way to greater central direction. It is the kind of behaviour which Carswell the localiser, the champion of direct democracy (he's a referendums for breakfast man) and scourge of "cosy cliques" at Westminster, will probably deplore when he gets round to it. | It's worth noting here on Roger Lord's behalf that under Farage's tight leadership, Ukip's chaotic inner-party democracy has given way to greater central direction. It is the kind of behaviour which Carswell the localiser, the champion of direct democracy (he's a referendums for breakfast man) and scourge of "cosy cliques" at Westminster, will probably deplore when he gets round to it. |
| But for the moment, all is heady headlines and the romance of revolt for a loner steeped in British imperial history and keen to shed this country's inhibiting ties with Europe once Cameron's renegotiation strategy with Brussels and Berlin – he now dubs it insincere – has failed and the Brexit referendum has been won. Hang on a minute. Carswell's defection is also a pretty good development for Labour strategists who see a split in the Tory vote as helpful to Ed Miliband on 7 May despite a loss of Labour votes to the Ukip Pied Piper. Miliband remains (rightly in my view) opposed to a referendum. | But for the moment, all is heady headlines and the romance of revolt for a loner steeped in British imperial history and keen to shed this country's inhibiting ties with Europe once Cameron's renegotiation strategy with Brussels and Berlin – he now dubs it insincere – has failed and the Brexit referendum has been won. Hang on a minute. Carswell's defection is also a pretty good development for Labour strategists who see a split in the Tory vote as helpful to Ed Miliband on 7 May despite a loss of Labour votes to the Ukip Pied Piper. Miliband remains (rightly in my view) opposed to a referendum. |
| What about the siren voices of Fleet Street's armchair strategists and their (mostly) foreign, oligarch owners? As ambiguous as ever towards Faragism, the fellow-travelling Tory-to-Ukip newspapers are full of excitement with "Eight More Tories in Ukip talks" headlines. The figure has been touted by Ukip on the slender basis that they have been wined and dined by the gallant spread-bet king, Stuart Wheeler, in his over-priced Mayfair flat (as indeed have I). | What about the siren voices of Fleet Street's armchair strategists and their (mostly) foreign, oligarch owners? As ambiguous as ever towards Faragism, the fellow-travelling Tory-to-Ukip newspapers are full of excitement with "Eight More Tories in Ukip talks" headlines. The figure has been touted by Ukip on the slender basis that they have been wined and dined by the gallant spread-bet king, Stuart Wheeler, in his over-priced Mayfair flat (as indeed have I). |
| Don't believe a word of it. Several names on the wannabe defectors list, the Bernard Jenkinses and Jake Rees-Moggs, have already put distance between themselves and young Douglas (43), too smart, too cautious, too keen not to help Ed Miliband take the keys of No 10. Lord Norman Tebbit, who has walked the tightrope between loyalty and defection for years, is not going to jump off now. | Don't believe a word of it. Several names on the wannabe defectors list, the Bernard Jenkinses and Jake Rees-Moggs, have already put distance between themselves and young Douglas (43), too smart, too cautious, too keen not to help Ed Miliband take the keys of No 10. Lord Norman Tebbit, who has walked the tightrope between loyalty and defection for years, is not going to jump off now. |
| A few months ago Carswell himself told the Spectator's hawkish editor, Fraser Nelson, that he was giving up rebellion to support Cameron as the election looms. "Rebel with an Unclear Cause" writes Nelson, this is an ego-trip to be compared with David Davis's quixotic 2008 by-election over civil liberties. A good potential home secretary was lost that day. | A few months ago Carswell himself told the Spectator's hawkish editor, Fraser Nelson, that he was giving up rebellion to support Cameron as the election looms. "Rebel with an Unclear Cause" writes Nelson, this is an ego-trip to be compared with David Davis's quixotic 2008 by-election over civil liberties. A good potential home secretary was lost that day. |
| I know lantern-jawed Carswell a little and he's likeably sincere and often says interesting things on IT-driven communications and political decision-making. Westminster is like the old music giant, HMV, coping with Spotify, he once told the Economist. Watch him here and decide for yourself . "The interrnet allows us to harness the abilities of others" and could exponentially improve the way we are governed, he believes. Idealistic or what? | I know lantern-jawed Carswell a little and he's likeably sincere and often says interesting things on IT-driven communications and political decision-making. Westminster is like the old music giant, HMV, coping with Spotify, he once told the Economist. Watch him here and decide for yourself . "The interrnet allows us to harness the abilities of others" and could exponentially improve the way we are governed, he believes. Idealistic or what? |
| So Carswell is an MP who thinks, he writes books, refuses to obey the whips and is admirably virtuous in many ways, though not (I was surprised by this) his expenses – see here. They were less self-denying than I assumed when he became the MP to lead the very public charge for Michael Martin's resignation as Commons Speaker – the first such in 300 years. The Glaswegian Martin's crime was behaving like the shop steward he once was, not like a leader, over the exes scandal in 2008-9. | So Carswell is an MP who thinks, he writes books, refuses to obey the whips and is admirably virtuous in many ways, though not (I was surprised by this) his expenses – see here. They were less self-denying than I assumed when he became the MP to lead the very public charge for Michael Martin's resignation as Commons Speaker – the first such in 300 years. The Glaswegian Martin's crime was behaving like the shop steward he once was, not like a leader, over the exes scandal in 2008-9. |
| It was a bad business but not as bad as the self-righteous Carswell or the tax-shy Tory press made it sound at the time. Carswell is not the kind of man to wonder why those tax-exiled media oligarchs are so admiring of his defection this morning, why they want Britain out of the EU and dislike Cameron more than he deserves. | It was a bad business but not as bad as the self-righteous Carswell or the tax-shy Tory press made it sound at the time. Carswell is not the kind of man to wonder why those tax-exiled media oligarchs are so admiring of his defection this morning, why they want Britain out of the EU and dislike Cameron more than he deserves. |
| But then, Carswell always reminds me of the remark Iain Macleod made of his even cleverer colleague, Enoch Powell, who jointly refused to serve under Lord Home when he succeeded Harold Macmillan as PM (they wanted Rab Butler) in 1963. Macleod wittily said that one had to be "careful to jump off the train of Enoch's logic before it hits the buffers." Over Powell's great cause – Europe – the modern Tory party is banging on those buffers pretty hard. | But then, Carswell always reminds me of the remark Iain Macleod made of his even cleverer colleague, Enoch Powell, who jointly refused to serve under Lord Home when he succeeded Harold Macmillan as PM (they wanted Rab Butler) in 1963. Macleod wittily said that one had to be "careful to jump off the train of Enoch's logic before it hits the buffers." Over Powell's great cause – Europe – the modern Tory party is banging on those buffers pretty hard. |
| That's why I long ago dubbed the Claction One "Kamikaze Carswell". The purity of his ambitions are not of this world. One of his books was called "The End of Politics: the Birth of Democracy" which is a bit like saying "The End of Ice: the Beginning of Water" or "The End of Football: the Beginning of Soccer." Politics is the process by which societies resolve the choices and priorities of life other than by violence. Violence too is eventually resolved by politics (ask Martin McGuinness). Dictators try to suppress politics (along with books, sex and much else) at great cost: it rarely works for long. Politics is like the air we breathe. | That's why I long ago dubbed the Claction One "Kamikaze Carswell". The purity of his ambitions are not of this world. One of his books was called "The End of Politics: the Birth of Democracy" which is a bit like saying "The End of Ice: the Beginning of Water" or "The End of Football: the Beginning of Soccer." Politics is the process by which societies resolve the choices and priorities of life other than by violence. Violence too is eventually resolved by politics (ask Martin McGuinness). Dictators try to suppress politics (along with books, sex and much else) at great cost: it rarely works for long. Politics is like the air we breathe. |
| Douglas Carswell's ambition to replace it reflects his credentials as a "radical" Tory thinker in the same spirit that some free-thinking Labour backbenchers and think tanks are always keen to break the mould of conventional machine politics because they confuse causes and crusades with boring old process. Admirable, but as I never tire of reminding them there are ethics of principle and ethics of consequence. | Douglas Carswell's ambition to replace it reflects his credentials as a "radical" Tory thinker in the same spirit that some free-thinking Labour backbenchers and think tanks are always keen to break the mould of conventional machine politics because they confuse causes and crusades with boring old process. Admirable, but as I never tire of reminding them there are ethics of principle and ethics of consequence. |
| Thus Carswell's charge to oust Michael Martin succeeded. But it had consequnces. It left a bad taste in many mouths, including those of Tories who liked the Speaker and felt he'd been made the scapegoat for collective sins. So when it came to elect a new Speaker Labour used its majority to help elect John Bercow, a Tory backbencher widely disliked by fellow-Tories. Bercow has good qualities and reforming instincts, but also poor judgement – as the current row over the new Commons clerk shows again – and frequently offensive manners. | Thus Carswell's charge to oust Michael Martin succeeded. But it had consequnces. It left a bad taste in many mouths, including those of Tories who liked the Speaker and felt he'd been made the scapegoat for collective sins. So when it came to elect a new Speaker Labour used its majority to help elect John Bercow, a Tory backbencher widely disliked by fellow-Tories. Bercow has good qualities and reforming instincts, but also poor judgement – as the current row over the new Commons clerk shows again – and frequently offensive manners. |
| All in all you could conclude that Carswell had demonstrated bad judgement on that occasion despite being warned what would happen. The same sort of thing will be said about him this weekend, that his defection will help Ed Miliband become prime minister and deny Little Englander Tory voters and Ukip defectors their hopes of the In/Out Brexit referendum that Cameron promises for 2017. | All in all you could conclude that Carswell had demonstrated bad judgement on that occasion despite being warned what would happen. The same sort of thing will be said about him this weekend, that his defection will help Ed Miliband become prime minister and deny Little Englander Tory voters and Ukip defectors their hopes of the In/Out Brexit referendum that Cameron promises for 2017. |
| We live in volatile and dangerous times, both internationally and domestically. Unlike most of its neighbours Britain's politics has not been threatened by reckless populism for a very long time, but is now threatened by several varieties. Alex Salmond hopes to do a Carswell and defect from Britain on 18 September, but not from the EU. Nigel Farage wants to take Britain out of the EU but Scotland to stay in Britain. A Yes for Salmond would make a No more likely in rUK unless people come to their senses. | We live in volatile and dangerous times, both internationally and domestically. Unlike most of its neighbours Britain's politics has not been threatened by reckless populism for a very long time, but is now threatened by several varieties. Alex Salmond hopes to do a Carswell and defect from Britain on 18 September, but not from the EU. Nigel Farage wants to take Britain out of the EU but Scotland to stay in Britain. A Yes for Salmond would make a No more likely in rUK unless people come to their senses. |
| "Come to their senses? Surely you've go that back to front, Michael?" I can hear Douglas saying. He once told me that Polly Toynbee and I were his "favourite Guardian hacks". No, not back to front. Just as the romantic in Salmond overstates the economic and political strength ("the eyes of the world are on us") of a stand-alone Scotland, so the romantic in Carswell (try as I may I can't feel romantic about Nigel) overstates the UK's residual strengths. | "Come to their senses? Surely you've go that back to front, Michael?" I can hear Douglas saying. He once told me that Polly Toynbee and I were his "favourite Guardian hacks". No, not back to front. Just as the romantic in Salmond overstates the economic and political strength ("the eyes of the world are on us") of a stand-alone Scotland, so the romantic in Carswell (try as I may I can't feel romantic about Nigel) overstates the UK's residual strengths. |
| Europe is a mess too, hobbled by its badly-designed eurozone and poorly-managed banking crisis, cluttered with misplaced, busybody ambitions to interfere. You don't need to be Douglas Carswell to work that out. Britain's economy is fragile, its political leadership is mediocre, the EU weaker by the day on both counts as the East rises and the US stumbles. Reform is always urgent. But if we don't hang together we will probably hang separately. Dream on, Douglas. | Europe is a mess too, hobbled by its badly-designed eurozone and poorly-managed banking crisis, cluttered with misplaced, busybody ambitions to interfere. You don't need to be Douglas Carswell to work that out. Britain's economy is fragile, its political leadership is mediocre, the EU weaker by the day on both counts as the East rises and the US stumbles. Reform is always urgent. But if we don't hang together we will probably hang separately. Dream on, Douglas. |