Tory MP defects to Ukip – live updates

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2014/aug/28/tory-mp-defects-to-ukip-live-updates

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3.26pm BST15:26

We are now closing this liveblog on Douglas Carswell’s surprise defection to Ukip from the Tories. It has certainly shaken things up politically and complicated life for David Cameron and the Conservative party in the run-up to next year’s general election. For Ed Miliband this is manna from heaven. Thanks for all your comments.

3.16pm BST15:16

The Daily Mirror’s Kevin Maguire pokes fun at Carswell.

When Douglas Carswell charged for a £32.97 Toni & Guy hairdryer, Con MP told me he thought "Herman Munster" plugged himself into the mains!

3.13pm BST15:13

Carswell once belonged to Friends of the Earth but underwent an epiphany after reading Ian Plimer’s book, Heaven And Earth: Global Warming – The Missing Science. In this 2009 interview with the Guardian’s Leo Hickman, Carswell explains his conversion to climate change sceptic. He said: “I think there’s going to come a correction in the market for ideas and I suspect that in a few years’ time there will be more doubts about man-made climate change.”

You can read Leo’s interview with Carswell here.

2.50pm BST14:50

The TheyWorkForYou website has a useful summary on Carswell’s voting record. He was for the bedroom tax and and against the mansion tax and a tax on bankers’ bonuses.

2.42pm BST14:42

Boris Johnson’s office has sought to snuff out speculation that the London mayor will stand for the Tories in Clacton, according to Buzz Feed’s Jim Waterson.

In totally unexpected news: team Boris says he'll stick with Uxbridge and won't go for Clacton thankyouverymuch.

2.24pm BST14:24

Summary

Here’s a summary of where things currently stand:

1.58pm BST13:58

Clacton’s Conservative Association chairman Simon Martin-Redman said he was “disappointed and surprised” by Carswell’s decision.

He too parroted the party line:

We feel let down and believe it’s a regrettable and counter-productive decision since, as he himself has said, the only way to get a referendum on the EU is to return a majority Conservative government. We are determined to keep this constituency Conservative.

Earlier the Spectator’s Isabel Hardman revealed that this is the line the Tory whips office told the party to take.

Tory staff in Clacton are keeping their heads down, according to Ben Quinn.

Clacton's (closed) Tory office.. With a sign advising visitors to email Douglas Carswell. Staff keeping heads down pic.twitter.com/pMdPZJy0Pp

Updated at 1.59pm BST

1.53pm BST13:53

Miliband: 'defection a blow to Cameron'

Labour leader Ed Miliband claimed Carswell’s defection is a blow to Cameron and highlights Tory divisions.

Douglas Carswell’s defection is not just a blow to David Cameron. It shows the Tory Party too divided to stand up for hard-working families

Updated at 2.24pm BST

1.48pm BST13:48

Another bookmaker has made Ukip the clear favourite to win Clacton.

William Hill is quoting odds of 2/7 for Carswell to take the seat. The Tories are on 5/2.

It is also quoting odds of 14/1 for Ukip to be included in any coalition government after the next General Election, with Labout 2/1 to win a majority.

“This is shaping up to be the most open General Election betting of all time”, said spokesman Graham Sharpe.

Paddy Power has narrowed the odds on Ukip winning Clacton from 1/2 to 1/3.

1.42pm BST13:42

Carswell’s defection is good news for Labour, according to the Guardian’s Martin Kettle.

Writing for Comment is free he says:

Carswell’s move could push the Ukip vote share up in many other seats in England. Depending on the scale of that spurt, the Tories would be set to be the main sufferer from such an effect. So it could be that Carswell’s announcement this morning makes Ed Miliband the most likely prime minister next May. This is unlikely to have been uppermost in Carswell’s mind, however.

The other big potential effect is within the Tory party itself. Carswell’s defection – and a byelection win in particular – may embolden other Tory Eurosceptic bakcbenchers with little love for David Cameron to follow his lead. And it may also encourage local Tory-Ukip pacts against the advice of Central Office next May. The autumn Tory conference is likely to be riddled with mixed feelings about Carswell. The overall effect of his move is certain to make the chief whip Michael Gove’s life harder.

1.30pm BST13:30

Matthew Goodwin, an academic who co-wrote a book on the rise of support for Ukip, claims that Clacton represents the party’s best chance of winning a seat.

Speaking on the World at One he said: “Clacton is the most favourable seat for Ukip in the country...I do not think he will struggle at all to win.”

In a prophetic blog post in May, Goodwin wrote:

In terms of the demographic profile of its population, the seat [Clacton] is the most ‘UKIP-friendly’ seat in the entire country!This is because the seat contains high concentrations of voters who are likely to be very receptive toward Nigel Farage: it has lots of pensioners, lots of voters without a degree, lots of voters with no educational qualifications and higher than average levels of economic disadvantage and unemployment. Ukip tend to thrive in such communities --older, less well educated and insecure voters provide the ideal breeding ground for Farage’s army.Clacton is also very ‘white’, with high numbers of voters born in the country and few minorities, which again favours Ukip, who poll strongest in ethnically homogeneous areas.

Having said all of that, however, the good news for Douglas Carswell MP is the local political context. He has a healthy majority of over 12,000 which makes a strong Ukip insurgency almost impossible. Moreover, at the 2010 general election Ukip did not even contest the seat, all of which goes to show that however ‘friendly’ the local demographics might be, it is the political context that ultimately makes the difference. This is why we have identified a series of other seats which not only have a favourable demographical context but also have votes split more evenly across the main parties, making a Ukip incursion more likely. Carswell also appears to have a good handle on Ukip support, which should serve him well in the future IF the local political context begins to change. Watch this space...

1.20pm BST13:20

The Clacton byelection will be “High Noon” moment for Ukip, Farage has told BBC Radio 4’s World at One Programme. He said if Ukip won the seat under Carswell more MPs would defect to the party.

1.16pm BST13:16

William Hague, leader of the House of Commons, has taken the party line by saying Carswell’s resignation is “regrettable and counter productive”.

Speaking to reporters he said the only chance of having a referendum on Europe was under a Conservative government. “Only we can deliver a referendum,” he said.

1.12pm BST13:12

Earlier this week London mayor Boris Johnson, confirmed his putting his name forward to stand in the safe west London seat of Uxbridge and South Ruislip.

Many have mischievously wondered whether he could now stand for the Tories in Clacton.

Cameron should make the big play. Get Boris to run in Clacton. Silver bullet against Farage.

If Boris Johnson wants to be an MP a rock solid safe seat has just come vacant. What better way to prove loyalty to PM than to win Clacton.

Come on Boris! Are you a man or a mouse! #Clacton #UKIP #Carswell pic.twitter.com/kSu8nqmi97

I think @DouglasCarswell would beat Boris in Clacton, playing the local, grass-roots democracy card against the metropolitan blow-in.

Updated at 1.46pm BST

1.05pm BST13:05

The Huffington Post identifies six Eurosceptic Tories who might join Carswell in switching to Ukip.

They are: John Redwood, Daniel Hannan, David Nuttall, Nadine Dorries, Philip Davies, and Jacob Rees-Mogg.

12.57pm BST12:57

Mark Wallace, executive editor of the Tory blog Conservative Home, has a useful instant analysis on what Carswell’s resignation means for the party and what happens next:

12.46pm BST12:46

Carswell has a regular blog for the Telegraph. In his most recent posting, he complimented Cameron for his handling of the Iraq crisis, saying he was doing much better than 12 months ago, when Britain was contemplating air strikes agains Syria. This is how the piece begins.

This time last summer, I was gearing up to vote against the Government over Syria.

Realising at the last minute that they did not have Parliamentary backing for a military strike, ministers filleted their own Commons motion, and brought forward a couple of face-saving paragraphs which their own backbenchers, like me, could support. Even then they lost the vote.

Thank goodness the Commons did force ministers to think again. Imagine how much greater the IS fundamentalist lightening advances might have been had Assad been eliminated? Their domain of savagery might now reach from the Euphrates to the Mediterranean and the Golan.

Carswell ends by saying that the prime minister would win parliamentary support for military action this time round. Read his blog here.

12.36pm BST12:36

Writing in the Telegraph, Peter Oborne - who is a fan of Carswell - asserts that his defection to Ukip is a seismic shock to the British political system.

He cannot be compared to the ordinary self-interested political defections, for instance Shaun Woodward or Quentin Davies’ departure from the Conservatives to New Labour, in 2001 and 2007 respectively. Mr Carswell, and this is completely terrifying for David Cameron, is acting out of conviction rather than self-interest. It is greatly to the credit of Mr Carswell that, in striking contrast to Woodward or Davies, he has called a by-election to fight his Essex constituency, where he may even stand a chance of success. If he wins, he will have broken every known rule of politics. It has always been assumed that the individual vote which an incumbent MP can attract is a fraction of that commanded by the party which he represents. If Mr Carswell carries Clacton, a political convulsion will have taken place.

You can read the piece in full here.

12.31pm BST12:31

Here’s a bit of background on Douglas Carswell. Tidbits include the fact that he claimed a £655 “love seat” and “flipped” his second home in the 2009 expenses scandal. He’s also an occasional crimefighter as he collared a jewellery thief in January.

A frequent Tory rebel on Europe, Douglas Carswell first stood for parliament in 2001 against Tony Blair, as the Conservative candidate for Sedgefield. He apologised for coming second, but managed to cut Blair’s majority by over 7,500 votes.

The Clacton MP entered parliament in 2005 and helped write a publication Direct Democracy: an Agenda for a New Model Party. The publication was described by the Spectator as being “one of the founding texts of the new, revitalised Toryism”, which had “argued compellingly that the party should embrace radical localism”.

A number of ideas outlined in it have since become mainstream Conservative thinking; the call for directly elected police chiefs is now party policy and the use of open primaries to select party candidates.

You can read the profile in full here.

12.23pm BST12:23

Tory sniping at Carswell has already begun.

Former MP Louise Mensch, who resigned her Corby seat in 2012, tweeted:

Douglas Carswell was always a bit of a slimeball. He organised referendums against Conservative MPs in very marginal seats from his safe one

12.20pm BST12:20

The bookies are already making Ukip favourite for the by election in Clacton, notes the Sun’s political editor.

First odds on Clacton by-election from @paddypower: UKIP installed as immediate favourites at 1/2, Tories 6/4, Labour 25/1, Libs 100/1.

...Ladbrokes also have UKIP as Clacton favourites at 1/3, Tories at 5/2. It's early days, but personally I can't see Carswell losing this.

12.13pm BST12:13

Farage said he is delighted by Carswell’s defection which he claimed would be an “encouragement” to other MPs to do the same. Speaking to BBC News he asked: “Who’s to say there won’t be others?”

He added: “There are others in Westminister having similar supports.”

The Ukip leader denied that Carswell had betrayed his constituents, claiming his decision to resign as Clacton MP was a noble move.

12.03pm BST12:03

Tories: Carswell's resignation is 'regrettable'

The Tories have dismissed Carswell’s move as “counter-productive”.

Politics Home quoted a party spokesperson as saying the decision was “regrettable and, frankly, counter-productive”. The spokesperson added:

The Conservative Party will contest that forthcoming by-election vigorously, to make sure the people of Clacton have a strong Conservative voice in this Parliament and the next.

Updated at 12.04pm BST

11.59am BST11:59

Ukip’s Twitter account covers some of the key points from Carswell’s press conference:

.@DouglasCarswell MP explaining why he has today joined UKIP pic.twitter.com/RUsbhbqNbW

.@DouglasCarswell: "all three parties went into the general election promising recall but they are not serious about real political change."

.@DouglasCarswell: "the Conservatives aren't serious about delivering an EU referendum."

.@DouglasCarswell: "I will resign from parliament and fight for UKIP in the upcoming by election."

.@DouglasCarswell: "I have not discussed it with the prime minister." @Nigel_Farage "I'm sure he is watching it on TV."

.@DouglasCarswell: "it's nice to finally have a party leader I actually agree with."

The Spectator has this recording of part of Carswell’s Q&A.

Sitting alongside his new colleague, Ukip’s leader Nigel Farage said: “This is not my show today, this is Douglas’s show”. He claimed it was no secret that both Tory and Labour politicians hold “Ukip views very strongly.”.

11.53am BST11:53

Carswell has refused to state whether he has held talks with other Tory MP about whether they also plan to defect.

Asked about whether others would follow, he told the BBC:

You need to talk to them. I’m not going to breach confidences. I’ve made this decision. It is an incredibly personal decision. For me it is the right decision. You need to talk to others.

11.43am BST11:43

Welcome to live coverage of the aftermath of Douglas Carswell’s dramatic defection from the Conservatives to Ukip.

Here’s the story so far:

A hand grenade has been thrown into David Cameron’s general election campaign after the Eurosceptic Tory MP Douglas Carswell defected to UKIP, triggering an immediate byelection.

Carswell, a leading member of the generation of Tory Eurosceptics, said he had endured sleepless nights in the ruup to his decision.

He has decided to resign immediately as MP for Clacton, in Essex, guaranteeing a difficult byelection for the Tories. As the sitting MP Carswell will have an immediate advantage.

Sitting alongside the Ukip leader Nigel Farage, Carswell said: “It’s nice to be a member of a party where I agree with the leader.” Farage joked: “It is early days.”

Carswell said he believed David Cameron and senior Conservatives were not “serious about real change”.

He had a majority of 12,068 at the last general election.

Carswell said: “Things don’t have to be this way. I will be asking voters in Essex to help me change them.”

He entered parliament in 2005, and has frequently rebelled over European issues.

On Tuesday Farage was selected to fight the Conservative-held seat of South Thanet in Kent at next May’s general election.