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| Ebola Could Eventually Afflict Over 20,000, W.H.O. Says | Ebola Could Eventually Afflict Over 20,000, W.H.O. Says |
| (about 2 hours later) | |
| GENEVA — As the tally of deaths from the worst known outbreak of the Ebola virus continued its seemingly inexorable rise, the World Health Organization said on Thursday that the epidemic was still accelerating and could afflict more than 20,000 people — almost seven times the current number of reported cases — before it could be brought under control. | GENEVA — As the tally of deaths from the worst known outbreak of the Ebola virus continued its seemingly inexorable rise, the World Health Organization said on Thursday that the epidemic was still accelerating and could afflict more than 20,000 people — almost seven times the current number of reported cases — before it could be brought under control. |
| The dire forecast was made as the W.H.O. reported that the number of known cases and fatalities had risen once again. The organization also acknowledged that in areas of intense transmission “the actual number of cases may be two-to-four times higher than that currently reported.” | The dire forecast was made as the W.H.O. reported that the number of known cases and fatalities had risen once again. The organization also acknowledged that in areas of intense transmission “the actual number of cases may be two-to-four times higher than that currently reported.” |
| The outbreak “continues to accelerate,” the organization said. | The outbreak “continues to accelerate,” the organization said. |
| According to the latest figures released by the W.H.O. on Thursday, the death toll has risen by more than 100, to 1,552 out of 3,069 cases in four West African countries: Guinea, Liberia, Sierra Leone and Nigeria, which had previously indicated that its outbreak was under control. | |
| While the disease was first identified in March, “more than 40 percent of the total number of cases have occurred within the past 21 days,” the W.H.O. said. “However, most cases are concentrated in only a few localities.” | While the disease was first identified in March, “more than 40 percent of the total number of cases have occurred within the past 21 days,” the W.H.O. said. “However, most cases are concentrated in only a few localities.” |
| The W.H.O. also published a so-called road map on Thursday to guide the response of affected countries and the efforts of the international community in trying to contain the disease. | The W.H.O. also published a so-called road map on Thursday to guide the response of affected countries and the efforts of the international community in trying to contain the disease. |
| The road map assumed that a number of countries that are not now affected by the epidemic could become so, but also said that the procedures it set out would stop any new transmissions within eight weeks of the first case being identified. | The road map assumed that a number of countries that are not now affected by the epidemic could become so, but also said that the procedures it set out would stop any new transmissions within eight weeks of the first case being identified. |
| In a sign of the difficulties facing governments seeking to contain the disease, the health authorities in Nigeria reported for the first time on Thursday that the disease had spread beyond Lagos, its commercial capital, to claim another death. | In a sign of the difficulties facing governments seeking to contain the disease, the health authorities in Nigeria reported for the first time on Thursday that the disease had spread beyond Lagos, its commercial capital, to claim another death. |
| Nigeria does not share a land border with the other three countries in the grip of the outbreak. | Nigeria does not share a land border with the other three countries in the grip of the outbreak. |
| The first sign of the virus’s spread to Nigeria came when Patrick Sawyer, a Liberian-American traveling from Liberia, flew to Lagos and died of the disease in the teeming city last month. Nigeria is Africa’s most populous nation but has recorded only 15 patients infected with Ebola, six of whom have now died. | The first sign of the virus’s spread to Nigeria came when Patrick Sawyer, a Liberian-American traveling from Liberia, flew to Lagos and died of the disease in the teeming city last month. Nigeria is Africa’s most populous nation but has recorded only 15 patients infected with Ebola, six of whom have now died. |
| The Nigerian health minister, Onyebuchi Chukwu, told reporters on Thursday that a man who had come into contact with Mr. Sawyer had evaded surveillance and traveled to Port Harcourt, the hub of Nigeria’s lucrative oil industry in the south of the country, where he infected a doctor who later died. | The Nigerian health minister, Onyebuchi Chukwu, told reporters on Thursday that a man who had come into contact with Mr. Sawyer had evaded surveillance and traveled to Port Harcourt, the hub of Nigeria’s lucrative oil industry in the south of the country, where he infected a doctor who later died. |
| The man, who was not identified by name, recovered from the disease. The wife of the dead doctor also has Ebola symptoms, Mr. Chukwu said, according to The Associated Press. Additionally, 70 people in Port Harcourt, including funeral directors who embalmed the dead doctor, are now under surveillance. | The man, who was not identified by name, recovered from the disease. The wife of the dead doctor also has Ebola symptoms, Mr. Chukwu said, according to The Associated Press. Additionally, 70 people in Port Harcourt, including funeral directors who embalmed the dead doctor, are now under surveillance. |
| In its statement on Thursday, the W.H.O. said the countries hit hardest by the epidemic — Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone — were “struggling to control the escalating outbreak against a backdrop of severely compromised health systems, significant deficits in capacity, and rampant fear.” | In its statement on Thursday, the W.H.O. said the countries hit hardest by the epidemic — Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone — were “struggling to control the escalating outbreak against a backdrop of severely compromised health systems, significant deficits in capacity, and rampant fear.” |
| “Clearly, a massively scaled and coordinated international response is needed to support affected and at-risk countries in intensifying response activities and strengthening national capacities,” it added, spelling out that particular attention to stopping the virus was needed in capital cities and major ports. | “Clearly, a massively scaled and coordinated international response is needed to support affected and at-risk countries in intensifying response activities and strengthening national capacities,” it added, spelling out that particular attention to stopping the virus was needed in capital cities and major ports. |
| The organization’s road map came as Dr. Thomas R. Frieden, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta, warned that the epidemic could get worse before it gets better. Dr. Frieden called for quicker international help and cooperation to control its spread. | |
| The latest figures do not include deaths from a separate Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo, which the authorities say is from a different strain of the virus. | The latest figures do not include deaths from a separate Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo, which the authorities say is from a different strain of the virus. |