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Concern in Egypt as Libyan tensions spill over the border Concern in Egypt as Libyan tensions spill over the border
(7 months later)
There are those who claim Egypt was behind a mysterious series of airstrikes on Islamist militias in Libya last week – but the Egyptians themselves are not among them. "There is no truth to these baseless allegations," Egypt's foreign ministry said in a terse statement on Sunday. Later in the afternoon, President Abdel Fatah al-Sisi bluntly told a gathering of editors: "There are no Egyptian planes or troops in Libya."There are those who claim Egypt was behind a mysterious series of airstrikes on Islamist militias in Libya last week – but the Egyptians themselves are not among them. "There is no truth to these baseless allegations," Egypt's foreign ministry said in a terse statement on Sunday. Later in the afternoon, President Abdel Fatah al-Sisi bluntly told a gathering of editors: "There are no Egyptian planes or troops in Libya."
But few would be shocked if there were. On Monday morning, most of Libya's neighbours will meet in Cairo to discuss responses to the latest Libyan crisis, and few delegations will want as swift a resolution as Egypt's.But few would be shocked if there were. On Monday morning, most of Libya's neighbours will meet in Cairo to discuss responses to the latest Libyan crisis, and few delegations will want as swift a resolution as Egypt's.
As Libya's eastern neighbour, Egypt is worried about the unrest spilling over the border. Thousands of Egyptian expat workers have already fled home from Libya, exacerbating Egypt's unemployment problem. Now officials fear something far worse may follow. An unruly Libya could provide a safe haven for Egyptian militants, who have launched hundreds of attacks on Egyptian security forces throughout the past year. As Libya's eastern neighbour, Egypt is worried about the unrest spilling over the border. Thousands of Egyptian expat workers have already fled home from Libya, exacerbating Egypt's unemployment problem. Now officials fear something far worse may follow. An unruly Libya could provide a safe haven for Egyptian militants, who have launched hundreds of attacks on Egyptian security forces throughout the past year.
Back in July, 21 Egyptian soldiers were killed in a skirmish near the Libyan border, in what some considered a premonition of what may be to come. Soon afterwards, Amr Moussa – one of Egypt's elder statesmen, and a Sisi ally – labelled the tumult in Libya "a major concern for Egypt", and called for a public debate about the possibility of military intervention. Back in July, 21 Egyptian soldiers were killed in a skirmish near the Libyan border, in what some considered a premonition of what may be to come. Soon afterwards, Amr Moussa – one of Egypt's elder statesmen, and a Sisi ally – labelled the tumult in Libya "a major concern for Egypt", and called for a public debate about the possibility of military intervention.
Since then, officials have publicly downplayed the likelihood of Egypt's involvement, and western diplomats say they maintain a similar line in private. "They are very worried and concerned, but we don't believe they're intervening militarily," said one Cairo-based diplomat. "It's complicated and they know that."Since then, officials have publicly downplayed the likelihood of Egypt's involvement, and western diplomats say they maintain a similar line in private. "They are very worried and concerned, but we don't believe they're intervening militarily," said one Cairo-based diplomat. "It's complicated and they know that."
The Egyptian administration has waged a crackdown on Islamists inside Egypt's own borders, and correspondingly has little sympathy for the Islamist militias currently undermining the Libyan government's authority. But they may not yet see renegade general Khalifa Haftar, the leader of Libya's anti-Islamist militias, as a viable partner – even if he has styled himself as a Libyan Sisi.The Egyptian administration has waged a crackdown on Islamists inside Egypt's own borders, and correspondingly has little sympathy for the Islamist militias currently undermining the Libyan government's authority. But they may not yet see renegade general Khalifa Haftar, the leader of Libya's anti-Islamist militias, as a viable partner – even if he has styled himself as a Libyan Sisi.
"Haftar is doing his best, but so far he has not proved that he can really put the Islamist radicals in their place," argued Sameh Seif Elyazal, a retired Egyptian general and security analyst with close ties to the army. "Definitely Egypt hasn't intervened so far and they have no intention of doing so.""Haftar is doing his best, but so far he has not proved that he can really put the Islamist radicals in their place," argued Sameh Seif Elyazal, a retired Egyptian general and security analyst with close ties to the army. "Definitely Egypt hasn't intervened so far and they have no intention of doing so."
That might change if an Isis-style threat emerged on the other side of the border – but Elyazal says this is "definitely not" an immediate risk. Analysts reckon that Libya's extremists, Ansar al-Sharia, lean towards Isis, but for the most part the country's Islamist militias are of less hardline affiliations. Nevertheless, said Elyazal: "We don't know what will happen if Isis becomes somehow involved, comes to our border, and tries to infiltrate."That might change if an Isis-style threat emerged on the other side of the border – but Elyazal says this is "definitely not" an immediate risk. Analysts reckon that Libya's extremists, Ansar al-Sharia, lean towards Isis, but for the most part the country's Islamist militias are of less hardline affiliations. Nevertheless, said Elyazal: "We don't know what will happen if Isis becomes somehow involved, comes to our border, and tries to infiltrate."
Algeria and Tunisia, who line Libya's western flank, are also concerned that an unstable Libya will increase the flow of arms and militants across north Africa. Like Egypt, Tunisia has cancelled flights to and from affected parts of Libya. Algeria has shut its Libyan border, and bolstered its border guard. Its politicians have also ruled out military intervention. But Libya's heightened unrest raises the spectre of the 2013 In Amenas hostage crisis – which saw Islamist extremists kidnap more than 800 hostages close to Algeria's Libyan border. Algeria will want to avoid an environment that increases the possibility of a repeat. Algeria and Tunisia, who line Libya's western flank, are also concerned that an unstable Libya will increase the flow of arms and militants across north Africa. Like Egypt, Tunisia has cancelled flights to and from affected parts of Libya. Algeria has shut its Libyan border, and bolstered its border guard. Its politicians have also ruled out military intervention. But Libya's heightened unrest raises the spectre of the 2013 In Amenas hostage crisis – which saw Islamist extremists kidnap more than 800 hostages close to Algeria's Libyan border. Algeria will want to avoid an environment that increases the possibility of a repeat.
To the south, there have been whispers that Islamist-led Sudan may enter the conflict in favour of Libya's Islamists. But a senior western diplomat dismissed this as hearsay, arguing that the Sudanese government's desire to strengthen ties with Cairo made them unlikely to side against Egypt on Libya. "This place is a fantastic rumour-mill," the diplomat said. "But there's no hard evidence that they are involved."To the south, there have been whispers that Islamist-led Sudan may enter the conflict in favour of Libya's Islamists. But a senior western diplomat dismissed this as hearsay, arguing that the Sudanese government's desire to strengthen ties with Cairo made them unlikely to side against Egypt on Libya. "This place is a fantastic rumour-mill," the diplomat said. "But there's no hard evidence that they are involved."