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| Israel’s Hard Choice on Hamas | Israel’s Hard Choice on Hamas |
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| TEL AVIV — When the current resurgence of fighting eventually dies down again and both sides are brought back to the negotiating table, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel will have two paths before him to bring an end to the four-week-old conflict in Gaza. He can agree to a shortsighted and surely only temporary truce by partly giving in to Hamas’s demands, as in previous deals. Or he can tackle the two core issues fueling the violence by demanding that Palestinian militants disarm once and for all — in exchange for lifting the economically crippling blockade. | TEL AVIV — When the current resurgence of fighting eventually dies down again and both sides are brought back to the negotiating table, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel will have two paths before him to bring an end to the four-week-old conflict in Gaza. He can agree to a shortsighted and surely only temporary truce by partly giving in to Hamas’s demands, as in previous deals. Or he can tackle the two core issues fueling the violence by demanding that Palestinian militants disarm once and for all — in exchange for lifting the economically crippling blockade. |
| Israel isn’t the only player in the region that wants to disarm Hamas. The Egyptian president, Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, has banned the Muslim Brotherhood in his country; Hamas is the Brotherhood’s only affiliate to have its own professional military. As Egypt prepares a huge project to expand the Suez Canal and bring long-needed investment to the Sinai Peninsula, Mr. Sisi needs a weak Hamas, lest it continue to foment instability in the area. | Israel isn’t the only player in the region that wants to disarm Hamas. The Egyptian president, Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, has banned the Muslim Brotherhood in his country; Hamas is the Brotherhood’s only affiliate to have its own professional military. As Egypt prepares a huge project to expand the Suez Canal and bring long-needed investment to the Sinai Peninsula, Mr. Sisi needs a weak Hamas, lest it continue to foment instability in the area. |
| It should therefore surprise no one that Egypt has refused to even discuss opening the Rafah border crossing, which it controls, or to address other demands that could reverse Hamas’s political decline. Egypt wouldn’t mind seeing Israel continue to do its dirty work by wearing down Hamas militarily — while absorbing all of the international criticism. | It should therefore surprise no one that Egypt has refused to even discuss opening the Rafah border crossing, which it controls, or to address other demands that could reverse Hamas’s political decline. Egypt wouldn’t mind seeing Israel continue to do its dirty work by wearing down Hamas militarily — while absorbing all of the international criticism. |
| But even at this point in the truce talks, little is known about Israel’s own negotiating positions. There are indications that the prime minister may be ready to conclude the conflict under so-called Pillar of Defense understandings. These terms, which brought an end to the last round of conflict in November 2012, make no mention of disarmament, and are blamed by many Israelis for giving way to the far more devastating Operation Protective Edge, which has taken place over the past month. | |
| For Mr. Netanyahu, offering a serious disarmament plan would be tantamount to a rare admission that a political solution, rather than military deterrence, is the only option to achieving lasting calm in Gaza, with serious implications for Israel’s continued control over the West Bank. The violence that followed Israel’s 2005 disengagement from Gaza has traumatized Israeli society, and Hamas’s successful halting of flights to Ben-Gurion airport through its missile attacks has only increased fears that the hills of the West Bank would be used for the same purpose following a hypothetical Israeli withdrawal. | For Mr. Netanyahu, offering a serious disarmament plan would be tantamount to a rare admission that a political solution, rather than military deterrence, is the only option to achieving lasting calm in Gaza, with serious implications for Israel’s continued control over the West Bank. The violence that followed Israel’s 2005 disengagement from Gaza has traumatized Israeli society, and Hamas’s successful halting of flights to Ben-Gurion airport through its missile attacks has only increased fears that the hills of the West Bank would be used for the same purpose following a hypothetical Israeli withdrawal. |
| Throughout the most recent conflict, several of Mr. Netanyahu’s trusted political allies and advisers, including the minister for strategic affairs, Yuval Steinitz, promoted the idea of a Syria-style process of removing rockets for destruction by a third party in exchange for the economic development of Gaza. The European Union has also called for Hamas to disarm. | Throughout the most recent conflict, several of Mr. Netanyahu’s trusted political allies and advisers, including the minister for strategic affairs, Yuval Steinitz, promoted the idea of a Syria-style process of removing rockets for destruction by a third party in exchange for the economic development of Gaza. The European Union has also called for Hamas to disarm. |
| As many Israelis are beginning to comprehend, perpetuating the conflict cannot prevent the roar of rockets over the skies of Tel Aviv, Jerusalem and Sderot. A disarmament mechanism that includes international support in the form of boots-on-the-ground inspectors and peacekeepers, and the participation of the Palestinian Authority, could be the missing piece that would guarantee security. But promoting a political solution to disarming Hamas that includes the Palestinian Authority poses serious political risks to Mr. Netanyahu, who has already absorbed extensive public criticism, both from his right-wing coalition partners and from within his own Likud party, for not sending the Israeli Defense Forces deeper into Gaza. | As many Israelis are beginning to comprehend, perpetuating the conflict cannot prevent the roar of rockets over the skies of Tel Aviv, Jerusalem and Sderot. A disarmament mechanism that includes international support in the form of boots-on-the-ground inspectors and peacekeepers, and the participation of the Palestinian Authority, could be the missing piece that would guarantee security. But promoting a political solution to disarming Hamas that includes the Palestinian Authority poses serious political risks to Mr. Netanyahu, who has already absorbed extensive public criticism, both from his right-wing coalition partners and from within his own Likud party, for not sending the Israeli Defense Forces deeper into Gaza. |
| Staunch rightists in the Likud, Yisrael Beiteinu and Jewish Home factions fear that any political agreement that solves Israel’s security woes in the Strip could be transplanted to the West Bank. Domestically, it would shatter perceptions that the Israeli-Palestinian conflict as a whole could only be managed. Internationally, it would remove Israel’s security-based objections to negotiating with the Palestinian Authority to disengage from the West Bank and evacuate its settlements as part of a two-state solution. | Staunch rightists in the Likud, Yisrael Beiteinu and Jewish Home factions fear that any political agreement that solves Israel’s security woes in the Strip could be transplanted to the West Bank. Domestically, it would shatter perceptions that the Israeli-Palestinian conflict as a whole could only be managed. Internationally, it would remove Israel’s security-based objections to negotiating with the Palestinian Authority to disengage from the West Bank and evacuate its settlements as part of a two-state solution. |
| It is therefore no surprise that the right wing of Mr. Netanyahu’s coalition has fiercely criticized any agreement that places the current unity Palestinian government — which is still backed by Hamas — led by President Mahmoud Abbas in control of Gaza. In one televised debate, the national-religious Jewish Home Party’s Uri Orbach was left fumbling his words when asked if he actually preferred Hamas to remain in power, after rejecting every idea for a political solution in Gaza. Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman, once Mr. Netanyahu’s key political ally, rejected any deal that would include Mr. Abbas, calling for an international force to govern the Gaza Strip instead. | It is therefore no surprise that the right wing of Mr. Netanyahu’s coalition has fiercely criticized any agreement that places the current unity Palestinian government — which is still backed by Hamas — led by President Mahmoud Abbas in control of Gaza. In one televised debate, the national-religious Jewish Home Party’s Uri Orbach was left fumbling his words when asked if he actually preferred Hamas to remain in power, after rejecting every idea for a political solution in Gaza. Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman, once Mr. Netanyahu’s key political ally, rejected any deal that would include Mr. Abbas, calling for an international force to govern the Gaza Strip instead. |
| Hamas has unequivocally demonstrated that it will never give up the weapons that constitute its fundamental legitimacy as a violent resistance movement seeking Israel’s destruction. Despite the devastation inflicted on Gaza thus far, the group would rather continue fighting than disarm. Sadly, this is the situation that will surely transpire if Mr. Netanyahu stands his ground on disarmament. In such a situation, the onus will fall on the international community to fully back Mr. Netanyahu, the Palestinian Authority and Egypt. | Hamas has unequivocally demonstrated that it will never give up the weapons that constitute its fundamental legitimacy as a violent resistance movement seeking Israel’s destruction. Despite the devastation inflicted on Gaza thus far, the group would rather continue fighting than disarm. Sadly, this is the situation that will surely transpire if Mr. Netanyahu stands his ground on disarmament. In such a situation, the onus will fall on the international community to fully back Mr. Netanyahu, the Palestinian Authority and Egypt. |
| The safest course for Mr. Netanyahu politically is to continue managing the conflict in Gaza. But the safest long-term course for Israel will require him to hold off the right wing and take serious political risks in the hopes of forging an inclusive plan to disarm Hamas and secure a long-term two-state solution. The truce talks are nothing less than a test of whether he now believes that moderates in the Palestinian Authority and the greater Middle East can be partners for peace. | The safest course for Mr. Netanyahu politically is to continue managing the conflict in Gaza. But the safest long-term course for Israel will require him to hold off the right wing and take serious political risks in the hopes of forging an inclusive plan to disarm Hamas and secure a long-term two-state solution. The truce talks are nothing less than a test of whether he now believes that moderates in the Palestinian Authority and the greater Middle East can be partners for peace. |
| Daniel Nisman is the president of the Levantine Group, a geopolitical risk consultancy. Ron Gilran is vice president of the Levantine Group. | Daniel Nisman is the president of the Levantine Group, a geopolitical risk consultancy. Ron Gilran is vice president of the Levantine Group. |