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Scottish independence: Banks warned on currency union Scottish independence: Banks warned on currency union
(about 5 hours later)
Scottish banks might not be bailed out in a financial crisis if an independent Scotland had no formal currency union with the rest of the UK, a report says.Scottish banks might not be bailed out in a financial crisis if an independent Scotland had no formal currency union with the rest of the UK, a report says.
The SNP says Scotland would keep the pound in a formal union - an option ruled out by the three main UK parties.The SNP says Scotland would keep the pound in a formal union - an option ruled out by the three main UK parties.
The National Institute of Social and Economic Research said without a formal arrangement Scottish banks would need a new "lender of last resort".The National Institute of Social and Economic Research said without a formal arrangement Scottish banks would need a new "lender of last resort".
Labour's Ed Miliband is to urge the SNP to set out a currency "Plan B". Labour's Ed Miliband has urged the SNP to set out a currency "Plan B".
It comes as the question of which currency an independent Scotland would adopt has become an increasingly key issue in the referendum campaign.It comes as the question of which currency an independent Scotland would adopt has become an increasingly key issue in the referendum campaign.
First Minister Alex Salmond has said a formal currency union with the rest of the UK - in which an independent Scotland would keep the pound - was the best option, saying: "It's Scotland's pound and we are keeping it."First Minister Alex Salmond has said a formal currency union with the rest of the UK - in which an independent Scotland would keep the pound - was the best option, saying: "It's Scotland's pound and we are keeping it."
He has argued that a currency union would be in the interests of Scotland and the rest of the UK.He has argued that a currency union would be in the interests of Scotland and the rest of the UK.
'Terrible choice''Terrible choice'
But Labour, Conservative and Liberal Democrat leaders have all ruled out a currency union with an independent Scotland and have urged Mr Salmond to come up with a currency "Plan B"But Labour, Conservative and Liberal Democrat leaders have all ruled out a currency union with an independent Scotland and have urged Mr Salmond to come up with a currency "Plan B"
The National Institute of Social and Economic Research considered other currency options, including "sterlingisation" - in which Scotland continued to use the pound without a formal agreement with the rest of the UK and without the Bank of England as lender of last resort.The National Institute of Social and Economic Research considered other currency options, including "sterlingisation" - in which Scotland continued to use the pound without a formal agreement with the rest of the UK and without the Bank of England as lender of last resort.
It warned options for creating a lender of last resort for Scottish institutions may involve "terms that are unlikely to be acceptable to an independent government".It warned options for creating a lender of last resort for Scottish institutions may involve "terms that are unlikely to be acceptable to an independent government".
It also said an informal union would have consequences for Scotland's financial sector and its capacity to export financial services. The report also said an informal union would have consequences for Scotland's financial sector and its capacity to export financial services.
Analysis by Colletta Smith, BBC Scotland Economics Correspondent
This report tackles an issue that neither side of the referendum campaign are prepared to discuss openly.
With a political impasse being reached over an idea of a formal currency union, academics are now turning their attention to the viability of other options mentioned in the White Paper.
In a very strongly-worded report, the National Institute of Economic and Social Research makes it clear that an informal currency union would have an incredibly high economic cost.
Without the backing of the Bank of England and with no viable alternative as a lender of last resort, big financial companies may have no choice but to leave Scotland.
RBS, Lloyds, and Standard Life have already warned that they would try and minimise any risk to their institutions. The NIESR report suggests that without a currency union, having big UK banks outside the legal jurisdiction would not be acceptable for the UK regulator.
Chief Secretary to the Treasury Danny Alexander said the report confirmed that "borrowing the pound would be damaging for a separate Scotland's economy and a terrible choice for Scotland's financial sector".Chief Secretary to the Treasury Danny Alexander said the report confirmed that "borrowing the pound would be damaging for a separate Scotland's economy and a terrible choice for Scotland's financial sector".
"This report shows that the Plan B Salmond now seems to be flirting with would be disastrous for the Scottish economy," he said."This report shows that the Plan B Salmond now seems to be flirting with would be disastrous for the Scottish economy," he said.
But a Scottish Government spokeswoman said the pro-independence campaign's position was to keep the pound.But a Scottish Government spokeswoman said the pro-independence campaign's position was to keep the pound.
"In fact this report demonstrates precisely why a currency union and a shared system of financial stability is in the overwhelming interest of Scotland and the rest of the UK," the spokeswoman said."In fact this report demonstrates precisely why a currency union and a shared system of financial stability is in the overwhelming interest of Scotland and the rest of the UK," the spokeswoman said.
'Demanding answers'
It comes as Mr Miliband joins calls for Mr Salmond to set out alternatives for Scotland, if it could not share the pound in a currency union.
Scotland's "businesses and families are demanding answers" on a post-independence currency, Ed Miliband is due to say later.
Mr Miliband will address the Scottish Chamber of Commerce in Glasgow later, alongside Better Together leader Alistair Darling and Scottish Labour leader Johann Lamont.
He will claim that working people and small businesses "would be left to deal with the consequences of no Plan B".
"If you care about social justice in our country, you can't leave the economics to guesswork," he will say.
"That's why businesses and families are demanding answers on the currency. Those at the top can move their money across the border and keep the pound."
"I want Scotland to keep the pound - by staying in the UK," he will add,
'Scotland's pound'
Ms Lamont, along with other opposition leaders, pressed Mr Salmond to set out a "Plan B" during first minister's questions in the Scottish Parliament this week.
The first minister responded: "The reason we are keeping the pound in a currency union, and the reason we are so unambiguous about it, is because we are appealing to the greatest authority of all, that is the sovereign will of the people of Scotland.
"After a 'Yes' vote in the referendum, I am sure that Johann Lamont will be among those who accept that sovereign will of the people of Scotland.
"It is Scotland's pound. It doesn't belong to George Osborne, it doesn't belong to Ed Balls.
"It's Scotland's pound and we are keeping it."