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| Russia Responds to Western Sanctions With Import Bans of Its Own | Russia Responds to Western Sanctions With Import Bans of Its Own |
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| MOSCOW — Russia retaliated on Thursday for Western sanctions against Moscow, announcing that it was banning imports of a wide range of food and agricultural products from Europe and the United States, among others. The move raised the level of confrontation over Ukraine with measures that seemed likely to affect Russian consumers at least as much as European farming. | MOSCOW — Russia retaliated on Thursday for Western sanctions against Moscow, announcing that it was banning imports of a wide range of food and agricultural products from Europe and the United States, among others. The move raised the level of confrontation over Ukraine with measures that seemed likely to affect Russian consumers at least as much as European farming. |
| Dmitri A. Medvedev, the prime minister, announced that Russia would ban all beef, pork, fish, fruit, vegetables and dairy products from the European Union, the United States, Canada, Australia and Norway for one year. | Dmitri A. Medvedev, the prime minister, announced that Russia would ban all beef, pork, fish, fruit, vegetables and dairy products from the European Union, the United States, Canada, Australia and Norway for one year. |
| “We hoped until the very last that our foreign colleagues would realize that sanctions are a dead end and that nobody needs them,” Mr. Medvedev said. “Things have turned out in such a way that we have to implement retaliatory measures.” | “We hoped until the very last that our foreign colleagues would realize that sanctions are a dead end and that nobody needs them,” Mr. Medvedev said. “Things have turned out in such a way that we have to implement retaliatory measures.” |
| Russia was still considering various measures involving aviation, including a ban on flights over Siberia, which would affect routes used by European and American airlines that fly to Asia, he told a cabinet meeting broadcast live on state-run satellite news channels. | Russia was still considering various measures involving aviation, including a ban on flights over Siberia, which would affect routes used by European and American airlines that fly to Asia, he told a cabinet meeting broadcast live on state-run satellite news channels. |
| But while Russians rich enough to savor fine European food at home may lament, at least in private, the gradual disappearance of such fare from shelves after Thursday’s announcement, Europe’s farmers and food producers, at least initially, suggested the effect of the ban was likely to be limited. | But while Russians rich enough to savor fine European food at home may lament, at least in private, the gradual disappearance of such fare from shelves after Thursday’s announcement, Europe’s farmers and food producers, at least initially, suggested the effect of the ban was likely to be limited. |
| The president of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi, indicated that the greatest impact to Europe might be the atmosphere of uncertainty that the tensions over Ukraine have generated. “Our risks to the recovery were on the downside to begin with, and certainly one of these risks will be the geopolitical developments,” he said at a news conference in Berlin on Thursday. “The recovery remains weak, fragile and uneven.” | The president of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi, indicated that the greatest impact to Europe might be the atmosphere of uncertainty that the tensions over Ukraine have generated. “Our risks to the recovery were on the downside to begin with, and certainly one of these risks will be the geopolitical developments,” he said at a news conference in Berlin on Thursday. “The recovery remains weak, fragile and uneven.” |
| After the United States, Russia is the biggest market for European agricultural exports, worth about 11.8 billion euros last year, or roughly $15.7 billion, according to Eurostat, the European Union’s statistics agency. That is about 10 percent of European agricultural trade; the vast majority of that commerce stays within the 28-nation bloc. | After the United States, Russia is the biggest market for European agricultural exports, worth about 11.8 billion euros last year, or roughly $15.7 billion, according to Eurostat, the European Union’s statistics agency. That is about 10 percent of European agricultural trade; the vast majority of that commerce stays within the 28-nation bloc. |
| In the past two years, myriad bans imposed by Russia — usually citing health and hygiene problems with European and North American products — have already driven food trade with Russia from peak levels. German pork exports, for instance, totaled 83,000 tons in the first four months of 2013, but fell “drastically,” to just 9,000 tons over the same period this year, the German Farmers’ Association said. | In the past two years, myriad bans imposed by Russia — usually citing health and hygiene problems with European and North American products — have already driven food trade with Russia from peak levels. German pork exports, for instance, totaled 83,000 tons in the first four months of 2013, but fell “drastically,” to just 9,000 tons over the same period this year, the German Farmers’ Association said. |
| A blanket ban on European pork imports last February has driven prices in Russia “significantly higher,” the association added in a statement, meaning that the Russian consumer is bearing the brunt of the move. | A blanket ban on European pork imports last February has driven prices in Russia “significantly higher,” the association added in a statement, meaning that the Russian consumer is bearing the brunt of the move. |
| Economic analysts suggested that the additional measures announced by Moscow on Thursday could have an immediate but moderate impact on the Russian economy while the country seeks alternative suppliers in Latin America, Africa and Turkey. | Economic analysts suggested that the additional measures announced by Moscow on Thursday could have an immediate but moderate impact on the Russian economy while the country seeks alternative suppliers in Latin America, Africa and Turkey. |
| “Even if Russia says it will try to find additional sources of supply, it will be difficult in the short term,” said Ivan Tchakarov, the chief economist at Citibank for Russia. “Consumers will feel some pinch but I don’t think it will be a massive impact.” | “Even if Russia says it will try to find additional sources of supply, it will be difficult in the short term,” said Ivan Tchakarov, the chief economist at Citibank for Russia. “Consumers will feel some pinch but I don’t think it will be a massive impact.” |
| “The key question is what the effect on inflation will be,” he added. The bank is estimating that price increases could add one or two points to the inflation rate for 2014, currently running around 6.5 percent. | “The key question is what the effect on inflation will be,” he added. The bank is estimating that price increases could add one or two points to the inflation rate for 2014, currently running around 6.5 percent. |
| In announcing the likely ban on Wednesday, President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia seemed keenly aware of the danger of price rises, saying that they should be avoided if possible. But no matter the fallout on the urban, Brie-eating elite — who do not like Mr. Putin much anyway — the Kremlin move was viewed as another way for the president to enhance his already substantial support base. | In announcing the likely ban on Wednesday, President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia seemed keenly aware of the danger of price rises, saying that they should be avoided if possible. But no matter the fallout on the urban, Brie-eating elite — who do not like Mr. Putin much anyway — the Kremlin move was viewed as another way for the president to enhance his already substantial support base. |
| In an opinion poll conducted Aug. 1 to 4 by the Levada Center, Mr. Putin’s approval rating hit 87 percent, having risen steadily since the annexation of Crimea last March. The last boost in support appears to be fueled by his confrontation with the West, with the idea that he is restoring Russia to its rightful place in the world. | In an opinion poll conducted Aug. 1 to 4 by the Levada Center, Mr. Putin’s approval rating hit 87 percent, having risen steadily since the annexation of Crimea last March. The last boost in support appears to be fueled by his confrontation with the West, with the idea that he is restoring Russia to its rightful place in the world. |
| Analysts considered the choice of food and agriculture products an obvious one after Western nations imposed three rounds of sanctions and ordinary Russians were waiting to hear what the Kremlin’s response would be. | Analysts considered the choice of food and agriculture products an obvious one after Western nations imposed three rounds of sanctions and ordinary Russians were waiting to hear what the Kremlin’s response would be. |
| “The consensus of 80 percent of Russians is that we have to reply, that we will fight,” said Igor Yurgens, the economist who runs the Institute of Contemporary Development, noting it was part of a patriotic wave rolling over the country. | “The consensus of 80 percent of Russians is that we have to reply, that we will fight,” said Igor Yurgens, the economist who runs the Institute of Contemporary Development, noting it was part of a patriotic wave rolling over the country. |
| In addition, people living in rural areas who make their living from agriculture or food processing or some related industry make up about 30 percent of Russia’s population, he said. They are an important support base for Mr. Putin and have been pushing the substitution of local products for imported ones. | In addition, people living in rural areas who make their living from agriculture or food processing or some related industry make up about 30 percent of Russia’s population, he said. They are an important support base for Mr. Putin and have been pushing the substitution of local products for imported ones. |
| Giant supermarket chains and restaurants scrambled to line up new supplies, and consumers dependent on goods like lactose-free milk imported from Finland worried about whether it could be produced locally. Some products, including baby food and wine, were purposely left out of the ban. | Giant supermarket chains and restaurants scrambled to line up new supplies, and consumers dependent on goods like lactose-free milk imported from Finland worried about whether it could be produced locally. Some products, including baby food and wine, were purposely left out of the ban. |
| But nationalist Russian leaders crowed that another victory over Western products was at hand. | But nationalist Russian leaders crowed that another victory over Western products was at hand. |
| “We should have started to protect the market much earlier,” said Gennadi Zuganov, the head of the Communist Party, now part of the loyal opposition. “We have everything we need to make it.” | “We should have started to protect the market much earlier,” said Gennadi Zuganov, the head of the Communist Party, now part of the loyal opposition. “We have everything we need to make it.” |
| Western experts read Thursday’s blanket ban as an alarming signal that hard-liners close to Mr. Putin were gaining influence. | Western experts read Thursday’s blanket ban as an alarming signal that hard-liners close to Mr. Putin were gaining influence. |
| “It is a complete mystery to me what Putin is thinking with this move,” said Wolfram Schrettl, professor of economics at the Free University in Berlin and an expert on Russia and Eastern Europe. “It is an own goal,” he said, using the soccer term for when a team scores for its opponent by putting the ball in its own net. “Western agriculture can certainly bear the effects.” | “It is a complete mystery to me what Putin is thinking with this move,” said Wolfram Schrettl, professor of economics at the Free University in Berlin and an expert on Russia and Eastern Europe. “It is an own goal,” he said, using the soccer term for when a team scores for its opponent by putting the ball in its own net. “Western agriculture can certainly bear the effects.” |
| In Russia, he predicted, “it will look soon like the Soviet Safeway — empty shelves.” Brazil, for instance, may be ready to increase deliveries of chicken to make up for the absence of such supplies from the United States. “But it is awkward, and requires extreme efforts.” | In Russia, he predicted, “it will look soon like the Soviet Safeway — empty shelves.” Brazil, for instance, may be ready to increase deliveries of chicken to make up for the absence of such supplies from the United States. “But it is awkward, and requires extreme efforts.” |
| In Europe, the effect may be the opposite. Albert Jan Maat, chairman of the Dutch Federation of Agriculture and Horticulture, warned that the Russian ban could spur a glut of farm products in Europe, causing prices to drop. “We’re thinking of either removing products from the market or temporarily storing them,” he said. | In Europe, the effect may be the opposite. Albert Jan Maat, chairman of the Dutch Federation of Agriculture and Horticulture, warned that the Russian ban could spur a glut of farm products in Europe, causing prices to drop. “We’re thinking of either removing products from the market or temporarily storing them,” he said. |
| In other quarters, the Russian ban was met less with alarm than derision. In Poland, after Russia announced its first ban on some fruit and vegetable imports last week, a campaign for Poles to “eat apples” and “drink cider,” drew an immediate and immense response with journalists, celebrities and even President Bronislaw Komorowski signing up and posting selfies eating apples on social media. | In other quarters, the Russian ban was met less with alarm than derision. In Poland, after Russia announced its first ban on some fruit and vegetable imports last week, a campaign for Poles to “eat apples” and “drink cider,” drew an immediate and immense response with journalists, celebrities and even President Bronislaw Komorowski signing up and posting selfies eating apples on social media. |
| Apple eating aside, reactions in Poland to Russia’s retaliatory actions have been increasingly critical. “All of this might be just a part of Putin’s game,” the agriculture minister, Marek Sawicki, told reporters. “He will try to divide Europe.” | Apple eating aside, reactions in Poland to Russia’s retaliatory actions have been increasingly critical. “All of this might be just a part of Putin’s game,” the agriculture minister, Marek Sawicki, told reporters. “He will try to divide Europe.” |
| Mr. Sawicki confirmed that Poland would seek compensation in Brussels, as might Finland and perhaps the Baltic nations, where ports, for instance, might suffer as a result of the ban. | Mr. Sawicki confirmed that Poland would seek compensation in Brussels, as might Finland and perhaps the Baltic nations, where ports, for instance, might suffer as a result of the ban. |
| Any such compensation would most likely come as emergency payments from the vast well of joint European Union funding known as the Common Agricultural Policy. But Frédéric Vincent, a spokesman for the European Commission, said it was “way too early” to make such payments. | Any such compensation would most likely come as emergency payments from the vast well of joint European Union funding known as the Common Agricultural Policy. But Frédéric Vincent, a spokesman for the European Commission, said it was “way too early” to make such payments. |
| The most noticeable American food import to Russia is chicken. But even there, Russia currently accounts for just 7 percent of United States poultry export volume, compared with 40 percent of the total in the mid-1990s, according to the National Chicken Council. But the council said the sanctions would not have much of an impact. “As its domestic poultry industry has expanded, Russia has in recent years become less important as an export market,” the council said in a statement. | |
| Echoing the German farm association, it added, “The biggest impact, we believe, will be on Russian citizens who will be burdened by higher prices for all food products, especially meat and poultry.” | Echoing the German farm association, it added, “The biggest impact, we believe, will be on Russian citizens who will be burdened by higher prices for all food products, especially meat and poultry.” |