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It’s been a busy couple of weeks for Ukip. First, new polling by Lord Ashcroft suggested that at the general election next year Ukip could win the southern seats of Thurrock and Thanet South, had a credible chance in Great Yarmouth and was damaging Labour’s prospects in some key seats. Ukip’s ability to inflict damage in Labour areas was then underscored by the party winning a local byelection in Doncaster Central, a solid Labour seat that neighbours Ed Miliband’s constituency.
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Meanwhile, Nigel Farage unveiled his latest attempt to overhaul his party’s image as a “one-man band” and home for angry old men with his new “front bench” – five of whom are women. And on Monday, private polling by Labour kept the spotlight on Ukip by suggesting that if the party polled at least 9% at the general election, it would help Labour’s return to power and effectively end David Cameron’s leadership.
It wasn’t supposed to be like this. After it won the European parliament elections numerous pundits started to write Ukip off. The party had peaked, announced the front page of the New Statesman. Nigel Farage is finished, declared Telegraph writer Dan Hodges. But now, the argument that Ukip has a one-way ticket back into the wilderness of British politics no longer seems convincing. And nor is it supported by the latest evidence that allows us to explore how support for this insurgent party is changing over time.
The latest wave of the British Election Study, released on Monday, compares support for Ukip before the European elections (in February and March) and after (May and June). It contains three fascinating messages.
First, Ukip’s appeal has been widening along the political spectrum. Rather than dropping off after the European elections, the number of voters who say they plan to support Ukip at the general election has risen from 12% to 15%. It is true that ex-Conservatives continue to provide the bulk of support to Farage; of those who voted Conservative in 2010, 19% plan on voting for Ukip in 2015 (up from 16%). But since February, Ukip has also been winning an increasing swath of support from disaffected Liberal Democrat and Labour voters (as you can see in the chart below). After the European elections, around 32% of Ukip’s support is coming from voters who previously supported these two parties.
Support from disgruntled Lib Dems is the most significant, increasing from 9% to 12%. Meanwhile, support among Labour voters has increased from 5% to 8%. That Labour voters are less likely to support Ukip is good news for the left, but the fact that their support for Ukip is continuing to rise should not be ignored.
Second, the anti-Ukip campaign appears to have had no significant effect on how the public feels about Ukip and its leader. Before the European elections, 26% of respondents said they liked Ukip and 23% liked Farage. After the European elections, 29% reported they liked the party and 28% that they liked Farage. Despite the attempts of the major parties to portray Ukip as a toxic and damaging force, since the beginning of the year both Ukip and Farage have become more likeable in the eyes of the public. In fact, Farage has managed to outperform both Cameron (whose likeability increased by less than 1%) and Miliband (down by 1%).
Third, Ukip is also facing challenges: the percentage of its voters who plan to stay loyal at the general election has dropped by five points to 53%. Interestingly, it is women who appear especially nervous about supporting Ukip. While there is evidence that at the recent elections Ukip had some success at closing the gender gap, it is women who are most likely to be leaving Ukip (the percentage of female Ukip voters who plan to stay loyal has dropped by eight points to 54% while men are down three points to 52%).
Ukip was always going to struggle to keep voters on board and these figures may have further to drop; Farage will be hoping that his new front bench has enough women and ideas to stem this loss over the remainder of the year. What does appear clear, however, is that support for Ukip is far from static and following its evolution will be key to predicting the outcome of the general election.
