The Guardian view on politicians and the polls

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/jul/25/guardian-view-on-politicians-and-opinion-polls

Version 0 of 1.

MPs will not return to Westminster now until September. When they get back, Scotland’s independence vote will be the dominant issue. But George Osborne’s confirmation that the economy is back to pre-recession levels and Ed Miliband’s speech on leadership on Friday are reminders that the parties are already focused on the 2015 election. With the Conservatives and Labour neck-and-neck in the polls, the political parties dare not take a break as they manoeuvre for advantage in a close contest.

The worldly wise view of the 2015 election has long been that the recovering economy and the prime ministerial credentials of Ed Miliband will be the dominant issues. Friday’s events seem to confirm those priorities. Announcing 0.8% second quarter growth, the chancellor celebrated a “major milestone” while warning against any repeat of the “mistakes of the past” – in other words telling voters not to let Labour back in just as the economy is growing. Meanwhile, Mr Miliband attempted to neutralise one of his negatives – his low poll ratings – by offering a version of leadership that promises something better than photo-ops.

Yet the dynamics of electoral politics are never so simple. In both cases we have been here before, with counter-intuitive outcomes. In summer 1996, with an election nine months away, the economy was thrumming. Growth averaged 0.8% a quarter, the same as the rate announced this week. But it made no difference. John Major and Kenneth Clarke took a booming Britain into the 1997 contest and suffered the worst Tory defeat of modern times.

Likewise with the unpredictable threat from low personal ratings. In June 1970, only 28% approved of the job Edward Heath was doing as Tory leader. Harold Wilson was riding high as Labour prime minister. But that month Mr Heath still overturned Labour’s 1966 majority of 98 and replaced it with a Tory majority of 30.

None of this means that 2015 will produce a counter-intuitive result, too. But, as politics pauses for the summer, do not assume that economic recovery and a struggling Labour leader will seamlessly translate into a Conservative victory next year. Instead, read the polls. Most of them show the two main parties with a support share around 35%. That could portend another hung parliament. Yet Labour remains ahead in most polls, including in the marginals. And this week YouGov found 48% of voters think the Tories “appeal to one section of society rather than the whole country”; only 22% thought that about Labour. The truth is that the election is a close contest which Labour may win. Much will hang on the outcome, including over Europe. But before that, all politics needs to focus on Scotland. First things first.