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Ukraine Crisis Is Testing E.U.’s Resolve Ukraine Crisis Is Testing E.U.’s Resolve
(35 minutes later)
BRUSSELS — As it pushed efforts to coalesce around tougher sanctions against Russia, the European Union on Thursday was preparing to draw up lists of oligarchs close to President Vladimir V. Putin, working out how it could limit Russian access to European financial markets and studying the risk that Russia would respond by limiting Europe’s energy supplies.BRUSSELS — As it pushed efforts to coalesce around tougher sanctions against Russia, the European Union on Thursday was preparing to draw up lists of oligarchs close to President Vladimir V. Putin, working out how it could limit Russian access to European financial markets and studying the risk that Russia would respond by limiting Europe’s energy supplies.
But hanging over the talks was a bigger question: Can the 28-member bloc reconcile competing national interests, directly confront a conflict on its own borders and prove that it has a meaningful and united role to play in foreign policy?But hanging over the talks was a bigger question: Can the 28-member bloc reconcile competing national interests, directly confront a conflict on its own borders and prove that it has a meaningful and united role to play in foreign policy?
More than any other recent crisis, the Russian incursion into Ukraine and all that has followed, including the downing last week of a Malaysia Airlines passenger jet over territory in eastern Ukraine controlled by pro-Russia separatists, has highlighted the glacial pace of decision making within the European Union. And it has given impatient critics, in the United States and elsewhere, additional reason to complain that the union is unwilling to take strong stands even when confronted with a clear case for action.More than any other recent crisis, the Russian incursion into Ukraine and all that has followed, including the downing last week of a Malaysia Airlines passenger jet over territory in eastern Ukraine controlled by pro-Russia separatists, has highlighted the glacial pace of decision making within the European Union. And it has given impatient critics, in the United States and elsewhere, additional reason to complain that the union is unwilling to take strong stands even when confronted with a clear case for action.
The European bureaucracy ground forward a bit on Thursday, as ambassadors from the member nations met to draw up a list of Russian individuals, companies and entities to be named on Friday as targets of a new round of sanctions. The entities were likely to include the self-declared republics of Donetsk and Luhansk in eastern Ukraine, and the individuals would probably include additional members of the Security Council of Russia, according to E.U. officials.The European bureaucracy ground forward a bit on Thursday, as ambassadors from the member nations met to draw up a list of Russian individuals, companies and entities to be named on Friday as targets of a new round of sanctions. The entities were likely to include the self-declared republics of Donetsk and Luhansk in eastern Ukraine, and the individuals would probably include additional members of the Security Council of Russia, according to E.U. officials.
The ambassadors were also discussing ways of identifying targets of potential sanctions among oligarchs who are members of Mr. Putin’s inner circle, but officials said those names would not be agreed upon until next week. The ambassadors were also discussing ways of identifying targets of potential sanctions among oligarchs who are members of Mr. Putin’s inner circle, but officials said those names still needed to be agreed on, a step that could be taken next week.
At the same time, officials from the policy-making European Commission sent the bloc’s member governments a road map for even broader sanctions, eagerly awaited by the Obama administration, that could target entire sectors of the Russian economy — like restricting Europeans from doing business with Russian-controlled banks, limiting sales of technologies and materials needed for its crucial energy industry and restricting the sale of equipment that could have military uses. Such sweeping measures would be available as a response from Europe if Moscow blocks independent inquiries into the downing of the Malaysian plane and fails to prevent arms supplies across its border with Ukraine.At the same time, officials from the policy-making European Commission sent the bloc’s member governments a road map for even broader sanctions, eagerly awaited by the Obama administration, that could target entire sectors of the Russian economy — like restricting Europeans from doing business with Russian-controlled banks, limiting sales of technologies and materials needed for its crucial energy industry and restricting the sale of equipment that could have military uses. Such sweeping measures would be available as a response from Europe if Moscow blocks independent inquiries into the downing of the Malaysian plane and fails to prevent arms supplies across its border with Ukraine.
The outcome of the effort to marshal a more muscular response is still unclear. With the 28 members having often-divergent economic and diplomatic interests — and most likely willing to pay different prices for collective action — even agreement on the ground rules for the sector-wide sanctions could require a further summit meeting of European leaders in Brussels next week.The outcome of the effort to marshal a more muscular response is still unclear. With the 28 members having often-divergent economic and diplomatic interests — and most likely willing to pay different prices for collective action — even agreement on the ground rules for the sector-wide sanctions could require a further summit meeting of European leaders in Brussels next week.
“The great difficulty for the E.U. acting collectively against Russia is a triple lockout,” Mujtaba Rahman, the director for Europe of the Eurasia Group, a political risk consulting firm, said in a telephone interview. “The Germans don’t want to jeopardize their energy interests, the French don’t want to risk their military sales, and the British don’t want to go too hard on Russian financial interests.”“The great difficulty for the E.U. acting collectively against Russia is a triple lockout,” Mujtaba Rahman, the director for Europe of the Eurasia Group, a political risk consulting firm, said in a telephone interview. “The Germans don’t want to jeopardize their energy interests, the French don’t want to risk their military sales, and the British don’t want to go too hard on Russian financial interests.”
The bloc’s indecision over the projection of power beyond its borders as it confronts a resurgent Russia has been illustrated by its inability to choose a successor to its foreign policy chief, Catherine Ashton, whose term expires at the end of October.The bloc’s indecision over the projection of power beyond its borders as it confronts a resurgent Russia has been illustrated by its inability to choose a successor to its foreign policy chief, Catherine Ashton, whose term expires at the end of October.
At a summit meeting on July 16, an attempt by Matteo Renzi, the Italian prime minister, to secure the job for his own foreign minister, Federica Mogherini, foundered on concerns that she may be too conciliatory toward Russia. The leaders handled the deadlock in time-honored European fashion: by scheduling another meeting for Aug. 30.At a summit meeting on July 16, an attempt by Matteo Renzi, the Italian prime minister, to secure the job for his own foreign minister, Federica Mogherini, foundered on concerns that she may be too conciliatory toward Russia. The leaders handled the deadlock in time-honored European fashion: by scheduling another meeting for Aug. 30.
For all that, the United States, which has expressed frustration with the sluggish response from Europe to Russia’s involvement in Ukraine, suggested this week that it perceived a new willingness among its European allies to make hard economic choices. And in a statement on Tuesday, the State Department effectively put the bloc on notice that Washington was expecting tangible results.For all that, the United States, which has expressed frustration with the sluggish response from Europe to Russia’s involvement in Ukraine, suggested this week that it perceived a new willingness among its European allies to make hard economic choices. And in a statement on Tuesday, the State Department effectively put the bloc on notice that Washington was expecting tangible results.
A State Department spokeswoman, Marie Harf, said in the statement that the sanctions package could be expected to consist of “restrictive measures — including access to capital markets; defense; dual-use goods; and sensitive technologies, including in the energy sector — if Russia does not cooperate immediately and in full with the Council’s demands, including stopping the supply of weapons, equipment and militants to Ukraine, and withdrawing its additional troops from the border area.”A State Department spokeswoman, Marie Harf, said in the statement that the sanctions package could be expected to consist of “restrictive measures — including access to capital markets; defense; dual-use goods; and sensitive technologies, including in the energy sector — if Russia does not cooperate immediately and in full with the Council’s demands, including stopping the supply of weapons, equipment and militants to Ukraine, and withdrawing its additional troops from the border area.”
Tensions among the European powers have burst into the open in recent days, with British and French officials trading jibes over whether France should proceed with the sale of warships to Russia and whether Britain would be willing to give up some of the benefits of the vast flow of Russian wealth into London. German officials have signaled growing impatience with Mr. Putin but have yet to show their hand publicly on how aggressive a package of sanctions they would back.Tensions among the European powers have burst into the open in recent days, with British and French officials trading jibes over whether France should proceed with the sale of warships to Russia and whether Britain would be willing to give up some of the benefits of the vast flow of Russian wealth into London. German officials have signaled growing impatience with Mr. Putin but have yet to show their hand publicly on how aggressive a package of sanctions they would back.
European leaders were frequent visitors to Kiev in the tumultuous months preceding the ouster in February of Viktor F. Yanukovych, Ukraine’s pro-Russia president, and they promoted closer ties between Ukraine and the West. But Europe’s leaders appeared to miscalculate the degree of opposition they would provoke from Mr. Putin, who proved intent on keeping Ukraine from moving more fully into the orbit of the West, and only now, after the shooting down of the Malaysia Airline jet, are they seriously deliberating a set of sanctions with real bite to them.European leaders were frequent visitors to Kiev in the tumultuous months preceding the ouster in February of Viktor F. Yanukovych, Ukraine’s pro-Russia president, and they promoted closer ties between Ukraine and the West. But Europe’s leaders appeared to miscalculate the degree of opposition they would provoke from Mr. Putin, who proved intent on keeping Ukraine from moving more fully into the orbit of the West, and only now, after the shooting down of the Malaysia Airline jet, are they seriously deliberating a set of sanctions with real bite to them.
Part of the thinking may be that, as in the Cold War when East and West faced off with nuclear arsenals, the costs of the Ukraine crisis would be high for both sides. Some Western European nations, including Germany and Italy, are heavily dependent on Russian gas supplies, while some of the bloc’s newer members in Eastern Europe — once under Soviet dominance behind the Iron Curtain — are even more reliant.Part of the thinking may be that, as in the Cold War when East and West faced off with nuclear arsenals, the costs of the Ukraine crisis would be high for both sides. Some Western European nations, including Germany and Italy, are heavily dependent on Russian gas supplies, while some of the bloc’s newer members in Eastern Europe — once under Soviet dominance behind the Iron Curtain — are even more reliant.
According to its latest figures, the European Union is Russia’s single biggest trade partner, while Russia ranks as the union’s third largest.According to its latest figures, the European Union is Russia’s single biggest trade partner, while Russia ranks as the union’s third largest.
A web of business deals between European Union nations and Russia, moreover, encompasses everything from German machine tools and autos, to luxury Italian leatherwear and the disputed French commitment to supply the Russian navy with two advanced Mistral-class warships. French and British banks have lent substantial sums to Russian companies. And, as French officials have taken to pointing out in recent days, many superrich Russian oligarchs own homes and even soccer teams in Britain.A web of business deals between European Union nations and Russia, moreover, encompasses everything from German machine tools and autos, to luxury Italian leatherwear and the disputed French commitment to supply the Russian navy with two advanced Mistral-class warships. French and British banks have lent substantial sums to Russian companies. And, as French officials have taken to pointing out in recent days, many superrich Russian oligarchs own homes and even soccer teams in Britain.
The interdependence has heightened concerns among some Europeans that punitive measures against Russia could easily boomerang.The interdependence has heightened concerns among some Europeans that punitive measures against Russia could easily boomerang.
So even as the Europeans ramp up their stance against the Kremlin, they seem unlikely, analysts said, to adopt measures that would seek to isolate entire sectors of the Russian economy. “You need to keep the big three on board,” said Mr. Rahman, referring to the preponderant influence of Britain, France and Germany.So even as the Europeans ramp up their stance against the Kremlin, they seem unlikely, analysts said, to adopt measures that would seek to isolate entire sectors of the Russian economy. “You need to keep the big three on board,” said Mr. Rahman, referring to the preponderant influence of Britain, France and Germany.
“The way you get around their triple lockout is by restricting European business with a number of companies in the energy, defense and financial sectors,” he said. “This more robust approach may get translated into concrete action by August depending on what happens at the crash site and whether cross-border arms deliveries taper off,” Mr. Rahman said. “But you will almost certainly never get full sanctions on an entire sector of the Russian economy from the Europeans.”“The way you get around their triple lockout is by restricting European business with a number of companies in the energy, defense and financial sectors,” he said. “This more robust approach may get translated into concrete action by August depending on what happens at the crash site and whether cross-border arms deliveries taper off,” Mr. Rahman said. “But you will almost certainly never get full sanctions on an entire sector of the Russian economy from the Europeans.”