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Promises of Hope Tarnished by Lack of Change Promises of Hope Tarnished by Lack of Change
(about 1 month later)
GUADALAJARA, Mexico — The excitement that flooded this city’s Liberation Plaza two years ago, when Enrique Peña Nieto announced his presidential candidacy amid mariachi bands, young hipsters and swooning women, has not just dissipated. For many, it has curdled. GUADALAJARA, Mexico — The excitement that flooded this city’s Liberation Plaza two years ago, when Enrique Peña Nieto announced his presidential candidacy amid mariachi bands, young hipsters and swooning women, has not just dissipated. For many, it has curdled.
Even as he garners international praise for pushing through reforms in energy, education, telecommunications and taxes, Mr. Peña Nieto’s public approval rating in Mexico has fallen to 37 percent from 54 percent, below that of any Mexican president in recent memory. Many former supporters now say they wonder: Were we deceived?Even as he garners international praise for pushing through reforms in energy, education, telecommunications and taxes, Mr. Peña Nieto’s public approval rating in Mexico has fallen to 37 percent from 54 percent, below that of any Mexican president in recent memory. Many former supporters now say they wonder: Were we deceived?
“At first, it looked like there was a lot of change — ‘look at all these new laws,’ ” said Martin Moreno, 60, a shoe-shiner at the plaza who voted for Mr. Peña Nieto. “But then what came out of it all made us open our eyes. The reality is that for the middle class and below, life is worse.”“At first, it looked like there was a lot of change — ‘look at all these new laws,’ ” said Martin Moreno, 60, a shoe-shiner at the plaza who voted for Mr. Peña Nieto. “But then what came out of it all made us open our eyes. The reality is that for the middle class and below, life is worse.”
The government’s most ambitious reform — opening the energy sector to private investment — has not been completed yet and officials strongly argue that their legislative efforts will benefit all of Mexico, eventually.The government’s most ambitious reform — opening the energy sector to private investment — has not been completed yet and officials strongly argue that their legislative efforts will benefit all of Mexico, eventually.
“The reform process is not designed to have an immediate impact,” said Luis Videgaray, Mexico’s finance minister. “What we are trying to do with these reforms of historic proportions is to change the structure that has slowed down the country’s growth for many years.”“The reform process is not designed to have an immediate impact,” said Luis Videgaray, Mexico’s finance minister. “What we are trying to do with these reforms of historic proportions is to change the structure that has slowed down the country’s growth for many years.”
And yet, here in Jalisco State, famed for its centrality in Mexican culture — the birthplace of tequila and mariachis, and a bellwether for national politics — the gap between the government’s message and the public’s assessment of its performance has become a canyon. The question is: Does that reflect a failure of government to deliver on its promises, or a sign of maturity for Mexico’s young democracy?And yet, here in Jalisco State, famed for its centrality in Mexican culture — the birthplace of tequila and mariachis, and a bellwether for national politics — the gap between the government’s message and the public’s assessment of its performance has become a canyon. The question is: Does that reflect a failure of government to deliver on its promises, or a sign of maturity for Mexico’s young democracy?
Many veteran observers of Mexican society say that voters here have become savvier and more demanding — far less willing to embrace gloss without true transparency, or to trust presidential platitudes until they see positive results.Many veteran observers of Mexican society say that voters here have become savvier and more demanding — far less willing to embrace gloss without true transparency, or to trust presidential platitudes until they see positive results.
“People are deeply enraged but not just based on erratic emotions, but rather in a pensive and thoughtful way,” said Laura Esquivel, the Mexican novelist who wrote “Like Water for Chocolate.” “People are slowly waking up from a fairy tale.” As it turns out, Mexico’s long and complicated relationship with Mr. Peña Nieto’s Institutional Revolutionary Party, known as the PRI, has not been as easy to recast as the president and his advisers thought.“People are deeply enraged but not just based on erratic emotions, but rather in a pensive and thoughtful way,” said Laura Esquivel, the Mexican novelist who wrote “Like Water for Chocolate.” “People are slowly waking up from a fairy tale.” As it turns out, Mexico’s long and complicated relationship with Mr. Peña Nieto’s Institutional Revolutionary Party, known as the PRI, has not been as easy to recast as the president and his advisers thought.
He may have successfully sold himself as a telegenic fresh face and a break from the days when the PRI ran Mexico as a pretend democracy for seven decades. But two years into his six-year term, the “light and hope” he promised at his campaign kickoff here has yet to become a reality for much of the country.He may have successfully sold himself as a telegenic fresh face and a break from the days when the PRI ran Mexico as a pretend democracy for seven decades. But two years into his six-year term, the “light and hope” he promised at his campaign kickoff here has yet to become a reality for much of the country.
Young Mexicans in particular often describe themselves as disillusioned with how much of the old way of doing things — heavy on information control, light on transparency — remains in force.Young Mexicans in particular often describe themselves as disillusioned with how much of the old way of doing things — heavy on information control, light on transparency — remains in force.
“I get frustrated a lot,” said one 32-year-old PRI government official working on economic development in the Guadalajara area. Requesting anonymity to protect his job, he argued that the federal government under Mr. Peña Nieto still governs with past PRI values, favoring connections over good ideas, ignoring corruption, and generally just acting clueless when it comes to younger Mexicans’ expectation of direct communication and decisions based on data, not back-room deals.“I get frustrated a lot,” said one 32-year-old PRI government official working on economic development in the Guadalajara area. Requesting anonymity to protect his job, he argued that the federal government under Mr. Peña Nieto still governs with past PRI values, favoring connections over good ideas, ignoring corruption, and generally just acting clueless when it comes to younger Mexicans’ expectation of direct communication and decisions based on data, not back-room deals.
“They don’t understand there’s a new way of doing things,” the official said.“They don’t understand there’s a new way of doing things,” the official said.
The result, many argue, can be seen in the underwhelming economy. Even as Mexico draws in record levels of foreign investment, especially in the automobile sector, overall growth has been about as strong as a toddler kicking a deflated soccer ball. The economy grew in the first quarter of 2014 reached only 1.1 percent, far below the administration’s initial projections of 3.9 percent growth for the year.The result, many argue, can be seen in the underwhelming economy. Even as Mexico draws in record levels of foreign investment, especially in the automobile sector, overall growth has been about as strong as a toddler kicking a deflated soccer ball. The economy grew in the first quarter of 2014 reached only 1.1 percent, far below the administration’s initial projections of 3.9 percent growth for the year.
Mr. Videgaray said Mexicans should begin to see tangible economic benefits over the next two to five years. “These are changes designed to transform the future of Mexico,” he said.Mr. Videgaray said Mexicans should begin to see tangible economic benefits over the next two to five years. “These are changes designed to transform the future of Mexico,” he said.
But in the meantime, poverty has expanded, according to a recent government report, especially for those lacking the education to join national export sectors, as worries feed pessimism.But in the meantime, poverty has expanded, according to a recent government report, especially for those lacking the education to join national export sectors, as worries feed pessimism.
On the poor eastern periphery of Guadalajara, Teresa Mozqueda, 33, one of many local Peña Nieto voters with regrets, said that for her husband’s vegetable cart, “sales are sometimes lower, sometimes the same, but it’s never better.” At the same time, she added, “everything we buy is more expensive.”On the poor eastern periphery of Guadalajara, Teresa Mozqueda, 33, one of many local Peña Nieto voters with regrets, said that for her husband’s vegetable cart, “sales are sometimes lower, sometimes the same, but it’s never better.” At the same time, she added, “everything we buy is more expensive.”
Asked how she feels about the PRI now, she laughed, as if forced to talk about an ex-husband. “I was deceived,” she said.Asked how she feels about the PRI now, she laughed, as if forced to talk about an ex-husband. “I was deceived,” she said.
Downtown, Mr. Moreno, the shoe-shiner, said the reforms could make it worse. Tall, mustachioed and a daily reader of five newspapers, he said he fears the new fiscal law intended to broaden tax collection, which he said would require him to open a bank account and have taxes taken out “even if I earn nothing.”Downtown, Mr. Moreno, the shoe-shiner, said the reforms could make it worse. Tall, mustachioed and a daily reader of five newspapers, he said he fears the new fiscal law intended to broaden tax collection, which he said would require him to open a bank account and have taxes taken out “even if I earn nothing.”
Experts say that is a misinterpretation; that enrollment may not be forced, and that there are incentive programs to offset the costs associated with trying to bring Mexico’s large informal economy into compliance with laws and benefits.Experts say that is a misinterpretation; that enrollment may not be forced, and that there are incentive programs to offset the costs associated with trying to bring Mexico’s large informal economy into compliance with laws and benefits.
But what is increasingly clear in Mexico is that the reforms — however shiny and new — will be respected or scorned based on how they are applied and enforced. Many parents and education scholars are already criticizing the government for enacting a new education law, aiming to increase accountability and standards, only to let entire states refuse to comply.But what is increasingly clear in Mexico is that the reforms — however shiny and new — will be respected or scorned based on how they are applied and enforced. Many parents and education scholars are already criticizing the government for enacting a new education law, aiming to increase accountability and standards, only to let entire states refuse to comply.
Others in business, from peddlers to executives, look at plans to allow private investment in Pemex, the state oil company, and recall the disappointments that came with the privatization of toll roads. They were supposed to be affordable and world-class; instead, many now say, they are expensive and often inferior.Others in business, from peddlers to executives, look at plans to allow private investment in Pemex, the state oil company, and recall the disappointments that came with the privatization of toll roads. They were supposed to be affordable and world-class; instead, many now say, they are expensive and often inferior.
Especially among the high-tech crowd here in Guadalajara, there are also concerns that the new telecommunications law, which is supposed to increase competition and reduce fees, amounts to a privacy grab by government, granting officials greater power to monitor communications and shut down websites or limit Internet access traffic in certain circumstances.Especially among the high-tech crowd here in Guadalajara, there are also concerns that the new telecommunications law, which is supposed to increase competition and reduce fees, amounts to a privacy grab by government, granting officials greater power to monitor communications and shut down websites or limit Internet access traffic in certain circumstances.
“The new reforms are necessary, yes, but what we worry about is: who is in charge,” said Adrián Campos, 34, a communication specialist for a new technology company here. “Everyone is always just looking to benefit themselves.”“The new reforms are necessary, yes, but what we worry about is: who is in charge,” said Adrián Campos, 34, a communication specialist for a new technology company here. “Everyone is always just looking to benefit themselves.”
Such pessimism has a rich history in Mexico, and political analysts argue that Mr. Peña Nieto can banish the intense skepticism only with bold competence — a dramatic shift in how government functions, with tangible improvements in the justice system, the economy and transparency.Such pessimism has a rich history in Mexico, and political analysts argue that Mr. Peña Nieto can banish the intense skepticism only with bold competence — a dramatic shift in how government functions, with tangible improvements in the justice system, the economy and transparency.
“He has not yet decided whether he wants to be a true reformer, one who truly modernizes the country,” said Sergio Aguayo, a political analyst at the Colegio de México. “He still has one foot set in the past, in opaque authoritarianism, corruption-tolerance, and the other foot set in the future.”“He has not yet decided whether he wants to be a true reformer, one who truly modernizes the country,” said Sergio Aguayo, a political analyst at the Colegio de México. “He still has one foot set in the past, in opaque authoritarianism, corruption-tolerance, and the other foot set in the future.”
And the rest of Mexico may need to change too.And the rest of Mexico may need to change too.
“We need to learn to be more optimistic and demanding,” said Miguel Herrera, the coach of Mexico’s national soccer team, adding that the country could learn from its team, which entered the World Cup poised to disappoint, only to overachieve.“We need to learn to be more optimistic and demanding,” said Miguel Herrera, the coach of Mexico’s national soccer team, adding that the country could learn from its team, which entered the World Cup poised to disappoint, only to overachieve.
“They took us for dead,” he said. “So we worked hard to convince them of the opposite, and to prove to them that we were killing ourselves in the field to reach the objective and the results we all wanted. I think us Mexicans, we should all be doing the same thing in every aspect of our lives.”“They took us for dead,” he said. “So we worked hard to convince them of the opposite, and to prove to them that we were killing ourselves in the field to reach the objective and the results we all wanted. I think us Mexicans, we should all be doing the same thing in every aspect of our lives.”