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To Talk With Hamas, U.S. Needs Help From a Testy Trio of Nations To Talk With Hamas, U.S. Needs Help From a Testy Trio of Nations
(about 1 month later)
CAIRO — As Secretary of State John Kerry arrived here Monday night to try to produce a cease-fire in the Gaza crisis as rapidly as possible, he confronted an uncomfortable reality. CAIRO — As Secretary of State John Kerry arrived here Monday night to try to produce a cease-fire in the Gaza crisis as rapidly as possible, he confronted an uncomfortable reality.
The United States must rely heavily on Egypt, Qatar and Turkey to play intermediary and exert their influence, because it has no direct contact and little leverage with the militant group Hamas. Those countries, however, have their own deep-seated differences over Hamas. While Egypt has been opposed to Hamas and other Islamic movements, Turkey has been supportive. Qatar, for its part, has provided financial assistance to Hamas and also a base of operations for Khalid Meshal, the group’s political leader.The United States must rely heavily on Egypt, Qatar and Turkey to play intermediary and exert their influence, because it has no direct contact and little leverage with the militant group Hamas. Those countries, however, have their own deep-seated differences over Hamas. While Egypt has been opposed to Hamas and other Islamic movements, Turkey has been supportive. Qatar, for its part, has provided financial assistance to Hamas and also a base of operations for Khalid Meshal, the group’s political leader.
“It will be extremely difficult for the United States to bring Egypt, Turkey and Qatar together right now,” said Robert M. Danin, a fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and a former senior State Department official.“It will be extremely difficult for the United States to bring Egypt, Turkey and Qatar together right now,” said Robert M. Danin, a fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and a former senior State Department official.
“However, all three countries do wish to see an end to the fighting,” Mr. Danin added. “Moreover, Egypt, Turkey and Qatar all stand to benefit politically and in their regional standing by serving as power brokers to a cease-fire between Hamas and Israel.”“However, all three countries do wish to see an end to the fighting,” Mr. Danin added. “Moreover, Egypt, Turkey and Qatar all stand to benefit politically and in their regional standing by serving as power brokers to a cease-fire between Hamas and Israel.”
Mr. Kerry’s visit here comes after a successful effort to forge a compromise in Afghanistan that led to an agreement to an international audit of the ballots of a disputed election. And Mr. Kerry brought a similar sense of urgency to the Gaza crisis.Mr. Kerry’s visit here comes after a successful effort to forge a compromise in Afghanistan that led to an agreement to an international audit of the ballots of a disputed election. And Mr. Kerry brought a similar sense of urgency to the Gaza crisis.
“We’ve got to get over there,” he said on Sunday in an unguarded comment to an aide during a television interview when he thought his microphone was off. “Let’s go.”“We’ve got to get over there,” he said on Sunday in an unguarded comment to an aide during a television interview when he thought his microphone was off. “Let’s go.”
Mr. Kerry, who plans to stay in Cairo until Wednesday morning and could travel to other Middle Eastern capitals after that, met with Ban Ki-moon, the United Nations secretary general, and announced $47 million in American humanitarian aid for Gaza. On Tuesday, Mr. Kerry is scheduled to meet with Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, the Egyptian president, as well as with its foreign minister, Sameh Shoukry, and Nabil Elaraby, the head of the Arab League.Mr. Kerry, who plans to stay in Cairo until Wednesday morning and could travel to other Middle Eastern capitals after that, met with Ban Ki-moon, the United Nations secretary general, and announced $47 million in American humanitarian aid for Gaza. On Tuesday, Mr. Kerry is scheduled to meet with Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, the Egyptian president, as well as with its foreign minister, Sameh Shoukry, and Nabil Elaraby, the head of the Arab League.
“Our immediate goal is stop the fighting as quickly as possible,” said a senior State Department official, who asked not to be named, citing agency protocol on briefing reporters. The official added that the Obama administration hoped to bring an end to the combat before tackling more thorny and time-consuming issues about Gaza’s future and the security arrangement there.“Our immediate goal is stop the fighting as quickly as possible,” said a senior State Department official, who asked not to be named, citing agency protocol on briefing reporters. The official added that the Obama administration hoped to bring an end to the combat before tackling more thorny and time-consuming issues about Gaza’s future and the security arrangement there.
Yet Hamas and Israel are each expected to add further demands.Yet Hamas and Israel are each expected to add further demands.
“The military wing of Hamas is calling the shots now and will try to hold out to show they achieved something,” said Dennis B. Ross, the former Middle East negotiator, adding that the group can be expected to insist on reopening the Rafah border crossing with Egypt, money from Qatar and the release of some of the Hamas prisoners Israel has detained recently.“The military wing of Hamas is calling the shots now and will try to hold out to show they achieved something,” said Dennis B. Ross, the former Middle East negotiator, adding that the group can be expected to insist on reopening the Rafah border crossing with Egypt, money from Qatar and the release of some of the Hamas prisoners Israel has detained recently.
“Israel will want to hold out until they have destroyed a large number of the tunnels, making rebuilding difficult, and will seek to get Kerry to insist on the dismantling of the rocket infrastructure in return for rebuilding Gaza,” Mr. Ross added. “Israel may not have a problem with money going to Hamas but will mightily resist the release of Hamas prisoners.”“Israel will want to hold out until they have destroyed a large number of the tunnels, making rebuilding difficult, and will seek to get Kerry to insist on the dismantling of the rocket infrastructure in return for rebuilding Gaza,” Mr. Ross added. “Israel may not have a problem with money going to Hamas but will mightily resist the release of Hamas prisoners.”
Adding to the challenge is that neither side is showing any signs of battle fatigue. In a travel advisory issued Monday, the State Department warned Americans of the risk of traveling to Israel and the West Bank and noted that American government personal were not allowed to travel south of Tel Aviv without prior approval.Adding to the challenge is that neither side is showing any signs of battle fatigue. In a travel advisory issued Monday, the State Department warned Americans of the risk of traveling to Israel and the West Bank and noted that American government personal were not allowed to travel south of Tel Aviv without prior approval.
While a senior State Department official expressed hope that a cease-fire would be worked out in the next few days, American officials also acknowledged that the situation was far more challenging than during the Gaza clashes of 2012, when Hillary Rodham Clinton, then the secretary of state, negotiated an end to the fighting.While a senior State Department official expressed hope that a cease-fire would be worked out in the next few days, American officials also acknowledged that the situation was far more challenging than during the Gaza clashes of 2012, when Hillary Rodham Clinton, then the secretary of state, negotiated an end to the fighting.
With Israeli troops inside Gaza, State Department officials said, the conflict has escalated beyond that of 2012. In addition, Hamas believes some of the assurances it received during the those cease-fire talks were not kept, an American official said.With Israeli troops inside Gaza, State Department officials said, the conflict has escalated beyond that of 2012. In addition, Hamas believes some of the assurances it received during the those cease-fire talks were not kept, an American official said.
Moreover, some of the crucial players have changed. In negotiating a cease-fire, Mrs. Clinton worked closely with Mohamed Morsi of Egypt, then that country’s president and a leader of the Muslim Brotherhood, which had close ties to Hamas. But Mr. Morsi was deposed by Mr. Sisi, whose military has sealed off Hamas’s tunnels, which it uses for smuggling.Moreover, some of the crucial players have changed. In negotiating a cease-fire, Mrs. Clinton worked closely with Mohamed Morsi of Egypt, then that country’s president and a leader of the Muslim Brotherhood, which had close ties to Hamas. But Mr. Morsi was deposed by Mr. Sisi, whose military has sealed off Hamas’s tunnels, which it uses for smuggling.
On the positive side, State Department officials said that Mr. Sisi’s ability to open the Rafah border crossing gave him significant influence in a quest for a cease-fire while Qatar’s financial assistance for Hamas might enable it to encourage a solution as well. Mr. Kerry’s ability to talk to Egyptian, Qatari, Turkish and Israel officials, they add, make him a central player in pulling together a cease-fire if one is to be achieved.On the positive side, State Department officials said that Mr. Sisi’s ability to open the Rafah border crossing gave him significant influence in a quest for a cease-fire while Qatar’s financial assistance for Hamas might enable it to encourage a solution as well. Mr. Kerry’s ability to talk to Egyptian, Qatari, Turkish and Israel officials, they add, make him a central player in pulling together a cease-fire if one is to be achieved.
“One of the things the secretary is going to be doing is gathering all the different parties together who are all working, I believe, toward the same objective,” another State Department official added.“One of the things the secretary is going to be doing is gathering all the different parties together who are all working, I believe, toward the same objective,” another State Department official added.
But signs of the challenges that lie ahead came quickly on Monday when Egypt’s foreign minister, Mr. Shoukry, said that Cairo had no intention of altering its cease-fire proposal, which forms the main basis for the talks here, to please Hamas. That came on the heels of Egypt’s protest of Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan’s recent denunciation of Mr. Sisi as a “tyrant.”But signs of the challenges that lie ahead came quickly on Monday when Egypt’s foreign minister, Mr. Shoukry, said that Cairo had no intention of altering its cease-fire proposal, which forms the main basis for the talks here, to please Hamas. That came on the heels of Egypt’s protest of Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan’s recent denunciation of Mr. Sisi as a “tyrant.”
“We believe that the effort to reach a cease-fire this time around is going to be in some ways more complicated than it was in 2012,” the first State Department official said. “The region is more divided now.”“We believe that the effort to reach a cease-fire this time around is going to be in some ways more complicated than it was in 2012,” the first State Department official said. “The region is more divided now.”