Democrats far outspending Republicans in 10 key Senate races, figures show

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jul/16/democrats-outspend-republicans-senate-races

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Democratic donors are outspending Republicans by more than 50% in the closest-fought Senate races, according to a Guardian analysis of the latest campaign finance disclosures that reveal a surge of money flooding into key battleground states.

More than $42m has been raised so far this year by Democratic campaigns in just 10 states that are seen as crucial in determining whether the party holds on to control of the Senate in November's midterm elections.

And although a number of more liberal senators are currently pushing for a constitutional amendment that would somewhat curb the growing dominance of money over US politics, disclosures filed this week with the Federal Election Commission show the party is nevertheless out performing Republicans by a clear margin – in direct contributions and early estimates of spending by outside groups.

In particular, vulnerable Democratic incumbents such as senators Kay Hagan in North Carolina, Mark Begich in Alaska and Mary Landrieu in Louisiana are raising money at personal record rates, up by an average of 58% compared with the same period last time they ran for election.

But the top performing candidate in the 10 races assessed by the Guardian was Kentucky Democratic challenger Alison Grimes, who out-raised her opponent, the famously well-funded Senate minority leader Mitch McConnell, with a haul of $4m in the second quarter of 2014 and is fast narrowing his longer-term funding advantage.

The Democratic performance in the period is likely to have been helped by a number of temporary factors – not least the distractions faced by Republicans in several states where there have been, or still are, competitive primary races.

Nevertheless, party strategists are citing their clear funding lead over the GOP in states such as North Carolina, Colorado, Louisiana, Kentucky and Georgia, as a key reason for their candidates’ improved performance in opinion polls as well.

Across the 10 battleground states, only Alaska, Arkansas, and Michigan saw the lead Republican candidate raise more money than the Democrat in the first and second quarters of 2014 – all by narrow margins – and a number of races that were recently neck and neck in the polls are now leaning slightly toward Democrats.

Iowa is the only one of the 10 states in which neither candidate has disclosed their second-quarter figures yet.

The electoral mathematics of this November's election still favour Republicans in other ways, however.

Many of the Senate seats up for grabs are in states that Barack Obama lost in the 2012 presidential election or where his administration is currently unpopular, and a clear Republican lead in West Virginia, Montana and South Dakota means the GOP would only have to win three more out of the 10 most competitive states to take control of the Senate.

Contributions to campaign committees have also become progressively less decisive after a supreme court ruling that relaxed rules for wealthy business donors led to a three-fold increase in so-called “dark money”, which is spent by groups that are meant to operate independently of candidates but can be highly partisan.

Though it is too early to tell whether anecdotal reports of a deluge of Republican money expected to come from outside donors such as the Koch brothers will prove overwhelming, early analysis of FEC data by the Center for Responsive Politics suggests Democrats are currently net beneficiaries from outside spending in nine of the 10 battleground states.

The national Democratic party was also ahead of its Republican counterpart, due in part to a funding push led by Obama, who has himself broken records for White House involvement in midterm fundraising efforts.