Immediate Gaza ceasefire unlikely as Israel tries to hurt but not kill Hamas
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Version 0 of 1. The Arab League and the European Union joined calls on Monday for an end to the bloodshed in Gaza after a week of intense Israeli military assault on the Palestinian enclave, but there was little sign of an imminent ceasefire being brokered. Arab foreign ministers were due to meet in Cairo on Monday evening. A spokesman for Egypt's foreign ministry said their session is "aimed at finding a solution to stop the shedding of Palestinian civilians' blood and to formulate a common Arab stance on the issue". The EU said it was in contact with "parties in the region" to press for an immediate ceasefire, as the death toll in Gaza rose to at least 173 after a week of conflict. "We call on all sides to exercise maximum restraint, to avoid casualties and to return [to] calm," said an EU foreign policy spokeswoman, Maja Kocijančič. Their calls followed statements from the US secretary of state, John Kerry, and the British foreign secretary, William Hague, urging a return to the November 2012 ceasefire agreement, reached at the end of the last intense conflict between Israel and Hamas. Kerry spoke by phone to Israel's prime minister, Binyamin Netanyahu, on Sunday, stressing Israel's right to defend itself against rocket attacks from Gaza. He said the US was concerned about escalating tensions and was ready to facilitate a cessation of hostilities, according to a senior state department official. Kerry was expected to visit Cairo on Tuesday for further discussions about Gaza. In a statement, Hague said he had spoken to Mahmoud Abbas, the Palestinian president, and Israel's foreign minister, Avigdor Liberman, to express his concerns about civilian casualties and urging a restoration of the November 2012 ceasefire. "It is clear we need urgent concerted international action to secure a ceasefire, as was the case in 2012." Hague told MPs at Westminster on Monday that any ceasefire deal had to be part of a wider effort to improve conditions in Gaza. However, analysts said the prospects for an internationally brokered ceasefire appeared bleak in the short term. "It's a pretty depressing picture. Neither Egypt nor the US, the two international parties that could intervene, are interested in taking strong action," said a western diplomat in Jerusalem. "The Egyptians are quite happy to see Hamas take a beating, and the US is being cautious and is unwilling to get into a confrontation with Israel." Daniel Levy, the Middle East director of the European Council for Foreign Relations, said: "A big part of the problem is that if both the US and Egypt are being standoffish, there is no one else to fill that vacuum. Europe can't do it." In the past, Egypt, which has historically close ties with Gaza, has been instrumental in persuading Hamas to sign up to ceasefire agreements that Cairo has helped to mediate. But after Abdel Fatah al-Sisi, who has since been elected president, led last year's military coup the Muslim Brotherhood, Hamas's ideological parent, has been outlawed and Egyptian attitudes to Gaza have hardened. The US has seen no return on its heavy political investment in the Israeli-Palestinian peace process over the past year, which was led personally by Kerry. Having warned that a failure of negotiations could lead to renewed violence, the US appears unwilling to force an immediate end to the current conflict. Meanwhile, Tony Blair met Sisi in Cairo at the weekend "to review the latest events on the ground", according to an Egyptian presidential spokesman. Blair, who is seen as close to both Netanyahu and the Egyptian regime, is unlikely to gain the confidence of Hamas as a peace-broker. Netanyahu told his cabinet said on Sunday that Israel would continue to act "vigorously to achieve the goal of the operation: the restoration of quiet for a long period while inflicting a significant blow on Hamas and the other terrorist organisations in the Gaza Strip". Operation Protective Shield's goal is the same as 2012's Operation Pillar of Defence, and 2008-09's Operation Cast Lead: to contain Hamas but not obliterate it. Israel knows that eliminating Hamas, even if possible, could leave a vacuum filled by organisations more militant, more radical and less palatable. "It's a fine calibration between weakening Hamas enough and not weakening it too much. Netanyahu still wants Hamas as the address in Gaza, otherwise there will be chaos and mayhem," said Levy. Hamas – whose leaders are likely to be safe in underground bunkers, unlike the hapless civilians, which has who have nowhere to hide – may be more open to ceasefire proposals. Mushir al-Masri, a Hamas politician, told AFP on Monday that its terms included Israel lifting its eight-year blockade on the Gaza Strip, opening the Rafah border crossing with Egypt, and releasing Palestinian prisoners Israel rearrested after freeing them in exchange for the kidnapped Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit in 2011. According to the western diplomat, Hamas wants to see real change in Gaza in exchange for ending the rocket fire. "The challenge is firstly to define the common ground for a ceasefire, but beyond that to work out how we change the paradigm," he said, referring to easing movement, access and trade restrictions in Gaza, and the restoration of Palestinian Authority control. "But we have to be careful not to be over-ambitious – otherwise we'll just be back here again." Levy predicted that Israel could wind down its offensive in the coming days, having calculated it had achieved as much as it could without a ground offensive and toppling Hamas. Following the end of its operation, the situation would return to what is known as "quiet", he said. "That means Israel returns to normality but Gaza returns to being under siege. The fundamentals don't change." |