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Kerry to Join Talks on Iran as Deadline Draws Near Kerry to Join Talks on Iran as Deadline Draws Near
(about 2 months later)
VIENNA — With the Vienna negotiations over Iran’s nuclear activities making halting progress at best and a deadline looming, the Obama administration announced Thursday that Secretary of State John Kerry would fly here this weekend to assess whether a deal is possible — and perhaps to begin negotiating an extension in the talks that both sides said they had wanted to avoid. VIENNA — With the Vienna negotiations over Iran’s nuclear activities making halting progress at best and a deadline looming, the Obama administration announced Thursday that Secretary of State John Kerry would fly here this weekend to assess whether a deal is possible — and perhaps to begin negotiating an extension in the talks that both sides said they had wanted to avoid.
Mr. Kerry will be joined by the foreign ministers of several, but probably not all, of the other nations engaged in the talks, which include Germany, Britain, France, China and Russia. Iran’s foreign minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif, has been here since July 2, as all sides have haggled over a deal that can not only be agreed upon among themselves, but also has a chance of satisfying Congress and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps.Mr. Kerry will be joined by the foreign ministers of several, but probably not all, of the other nations engaged in the talks, which include Germany, Britain, France, China and Russia. Iran’s foreign minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif, has been here since July 2, as all sides have haggled over a deal that can not only be agreed upon among themselves, but also has a chance of satisfying Congress and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps.
Many in Congress have been so suspicious of the negotiations that they have threatened not to lift sanctions on Iran if they are not satisfied with the terms of the agreement. The Revolutionary Guard commanders harbor considerable suspicion that Mr. Zarif, who spent half his life in the United States and was educated there, could trade away what they view as the instruments of power that would restore Iran’s influence in the region.Many in Congress have been so suspicious of the negotiations that they have threatened not to lift sanctions on Iran if they are not satisfied with the terms of the agreement. The Revolutionary Guard commanders harbor considerable suspicion that Mr. Zarif, who spent half his life in the United States and was educated there, could trade away what they view as the instruments of power that would restore Iran’s influence in the region.
Mr. Kerry will come to Vienna from Kabul, where he arrived Friday to meet with Afghanistan’s president, Hamid Karzai, and the two candidates to succeed him, who are locked in a bitter dispute about election results. But it is the Iran negotiations that may well determine how Mr. Kerry’s stewardship of American foreign policy is evaluated, especially now that the other venture he invested in so heavily, a Mideast peace accord, seems further away than at any other time in recent memory.Mr. Kerry will come to Vienna from Kabul, where he arrived Friday to meet with Afghanistan’s president, Hamid Karzai, and the two candidates to succeed him, who are locked in a bitter dispute about election results. But it is the Iran negotiations that may well determine how Mr. Kerry’s stewardship of American foreign policy is evaluated, especially now that the other venture he invested in so heavily, a Mideast peace accord, seems further away than at any other time in recent memory.
Mr. Kerry has made no secret of his objective: to be certain that Iran’s nuclear infrastructure is degraded enough that it would take Tehran at least a year, and maybe considerably longer, to race to build a nuclear weapon should its leaders decide to do so. But assuring a significant warning period, called “breakout time,” requires assembling many pieces of a complex puzzle.Mr. Kerry has made no secret of his objective: to be certain that Iran’s nuclear infrastructure is degraded enough that it would take Tehran at least a year, and maybe considerably longer, to race to build a nuclear weapon should its leaders decide to do so. But assuring a significant warning period, called “breakout time,” requires assembling many pieces of a complex puzzle.
Chief among them is the country’s ability to enrich uranium in centrifuges, machines that spin at supersonic speed. While the negotiators are keeping the details of their arguments secret, Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, gave a speech on Tuesday that, if reliable, provided some insight into how far the West has moved.Chief among them is the country’s ability to enrich uranium in centrifuges, machines that spin at supersonic speed. While the negotiators are keeping the details of their arguments secret, Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, gave a speech on Tuesday that, if reliable, provided some insight into how far the West has moved.
He said that the West wanted to limit Iran’s enrichment capacity to “10,000 separative work units, which is equivalent to 10,000 centrifuges of the older type that we already have.” Setting aside the oddity of having the country’s top religious leader talk in the language of nuclear engineers, that number is more than twice the production capability that American officials suggested a year ago, in background interviews, would be acceptable.He said that the West wanted to limit Iran’s enrichment capacity to “10,000 separative work units, which is equivalent to 10,000 centrifuges of the older type that we already have.” Setting aside the oddity of having the country’s top religious leader talk in the language of nuclear engineers, that number is more than twice the production capability that American officials suggested a year ago, in background interviews, would be acceptable.
But Mr. Khamenei went further, insisting that eventually Iran would “need 190,000 centrifuges,” to produce fuel for future nuclear power plants. “Perhaps this is not a need this year or in two years or five years, but this is the country’s absolute need,” he said. That number could produce a bomb’s worth of weapons-grade material in just a few weeks, but Iran has nowhere near the ability to make that many centrifuges.But Mr. Khamenei went further, insisting that eventually Iran would “need 190,000 centrifuges,” to produce fuel for future nuclear power plants. “Perhaps this is not a need this year or in two years or five years, but this is the country’s absolute need,” he said. That number could produce a bomb’s worth of weapons-grade material in just a few weeks, but Iran has nowhere near the ability to make that many centrifuges.
That is just one of the issues, but perhaps the toughest. Mr. Kerry will have to evaluate whether the United States and Iran can ever close the gap on what kind of capability will satisfy all sides. But there are differences on other major issues, including Iran’s willingness to limit other production facilities and allow its top weapons scientists to be interviewed, that officials say are highly unlikely to be resolved by the July 20 deadline.That is just one of the issues, but perhaps the toughest. Mr. Kerry will have to evaluate whether the United States and Iran can ever close the gap on what kind of capability will satisfy all sides. But there are differences on other major issues, including Iran’s willingness to limit other production facilities and allow its top weapons scientists to be interviewed, that officials say are highly unlikely to be resolved by the July 20 deadline.