Indonesia may be less neighbourly under new leadership, says analyst
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Version 0 of 1. Canberra should prepare to deal with a less accommodating northern neighbour, analysts have warned, as Indonesia awaits the departure of Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono and the arrival of its first new president in a decade. Political analyst and vice-presidential adviser Dewi Anwar Fortuna suggested that Tony Abbott may have squandered his best chance of rebuilding bridges. “It’s a pity Abbott has not done more to restore trust regarding wiretapping and asylum seekers,” Fortuna told Guardian Australia. “Canberra has never had such a good friend as SBY,” added Fortuna. “And may not have one in the next five years.” Yudhoyono, Indonesia’s first directly elected president, has served a maximum two five-year terms and is ineligible to run in a 9 July election that is looking an increasingly tight contest. The two presidential hopefuls, former special forces general Prabowo Subianto and the Jakarta governor, Joko Widodo, both say they view Australia as a friend, but their statements have been marked by caveats. During a televised election debate on foreign affairs last Sunday, strongman Subianto declared that Australia had a “phobia” of Indonesia. “Honestly, I think the problem is Australia’s not ours,” he said when asked about the bilateral ups and downs. “I think the problem may be that Australia has some sort of suspicion or phobia of us.” Widodo – who has seen his once comfortable lead over Subianto whittled down to single digits in recent weeks – described the problem as a deficit in trust and respect. “Don’t let us be underestimated because we are considered weak,” he told viewers. The former furniture salesman and mayor of Solo, a relative outsider in Indonesia’s oligarchical-style politics, called for stronger government, business and people-to-people links to diffuse existing frictions. Australia has been viewed unfavorably in Indonesia since the Guardian and the ABC reported Australian involvement in attempted spying on the president and his inner circle. Abbott’s response to the revelations was seen as lacking tact, and his Coalition government’s insistence on turning back asylum seekers’ boats has not helped matters. The spying scandal precipitated a public breakdown in relations between the two countries. Yudhoyono declared a withdrawal of Indonesian co-operation in key areas and recalled its ambassador from Australia. The recalled ambassador, Nadjib Riphat Kesoema, has since returned to Canberra and Abbott did meet with Yudhoyono earlier in June, but the effects of the spy scandal linger. Indonesia has demanded Australia sign a code of conduct before suspended joint defence and intelligence activities can be resumed. Indonesian government sources say that to ease any burden on future relations it would be beneficial for Canberra to agree on the code before October, while Yudhoyono is still in office. And Endy Bayuni, a senior editor of the Jakarta Post, said Indonesia’s next president would be more cautious about trusting Australia the next time around. “It is almost definite the next president will be less accommodating than SBY,” Bayuni said. “He [SBY] invested personally in that relationship, which is why he was very disappointed at the revelations that he and his wife were the target of the snooping.” Even with both candidates acknowledging that Australia is an important neighbour, he said that in the future “the relationship will be cordial, but it’s not going to be warm”. A less accommodating president is unlikely to go out his way to help Australia on the asylum seeker issue. Bayuni said when it came to policy “the asylum seeker issue is a priority for Australia, but is not even in the top 10 for Indonesia”. Amid attempts to weed out rampant corruption and pull millions of its citizens out of poverty, the issue rarely makes front-page news in the Indonesian language press. The new president may also cause Australia difficulties with regards to trade. Heavy doses of economic nationalism from both camps during the campaign – Subianto, for example, has decried foreign investors as “thieves” – has also raised concerns the next president might be more protectionist, especially in the mining, agriculture and energy sectors. In the short term, financial markets are expected to react negatively if Subianto is elected, but economists say the market will bounce back in the mid-term. Fauzi Ichsan, a senior economist at Standard Chartered in Jakarta, says that when a country is running current account and fiscal deficits it will understand it needs foreign investment to finance them. “So all the election rhetoric will be irrelevant as economic reality bites,” says Ichsan, “whoever is president.” |