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| The truth about obesity | The truth about obesity |
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| A third of children are now said to be overweight By Richard Vadon BBC Radio 4's The Investigation Britons are getting bigger and it's a crisis on the same level as climate change, says the government. Within 15 years most of us will be overweight, with our life expectancy cut by 13 years. Scary stuff, but do all the facts about this "ticking time bomb" really add up? | A third of children are now said to be overweight By Richard Vadon BBC Radio 4's The Investigation Britons are getting bigger and it's a crisis on the same level as climate change, says the government. Within 15 years most of us will be overweight, with our life expectancy cut by 13 years. Scary stuff, but do all the facts about this "ticking time bomb" really add up? |
| It's headline grabbing-stuff. The obesity epidemic in Britain is now a crisis on a scale with climate change, says Health Secretary Alan Johnson. | It's headline grabbing-stuff. The obesity epidemic in Britain is now a crisis on a scale with climate change, says Health Secretary Alan Johnson. |
| It will lead to the first cut in life expectancy in the UK for 200 years. "Children are likely to die before their parents," says Dr Colin Waine, chair of the National Obesity Forum. | It will lead to the first cut in life expectancy in the UK for 200 years. "Children are likely to die before their parents," says Dr Colin Waine, chair of the National Obesity Forum. |
| The Investigation is broadcast on Thursday, 22 November at 2000 GMT on BBC Radio 4 Radio 4's The Investigation There's just one problem with this claim - official forecasts show it's not true. The government-commissioned Foresight report released last month [see internet links, right] looked at the future trends of obesity and found an increase will have surprisingly little impact on life expectancy. In fact it predicted Britons will live significantly longer. So what is the truth about the obesity epidemic? | The Investigation is broadcast on Thursday, 22 November at 2000 GMT on BBC Radio 4 Radio 4's The Investigation There's just one problem with this claim - official forecasts show it's not true. The government-commissioned Foresight report released last month [see internet links, right] looked at the future trends of obesity and found an increase will have surprisingly little impact on life expectancy. In fact it predicted Britons will live significantly longer. So what is the truth about the obesity epidemic? |
| The UK is certainly getting heavier. The weight of adults and children is on the rise, with the annual health survey - conducted by the National Centre for Social Research - showing a clear upwards trend. | The UK is certainly getting heavier. The weight of adults and children is on the rise, with the annual health survey - conducted by the National Centre for Social Research - showing a clear upwards trend. |
| "If you look at men they have become around half a stone heavier on average than they were in 1993," says Heather Wardle, a senior researcher at the centre. | "If you look at men they have become around half a stone heavier on average than they were in 1993," says Heather Wardle, a senior researcher at the centre. |
| This weight gain matters because it means more and more of us are becoming overweight and unhealthy, argue anti-obesity campaigners. Putting any weight on after your 21st birthday is even a risk, according to last month's World Cancer report. | This weight gain matters because it means more and more of us are becoming overweight and unhealthy, argue anti-obesity campaigners. Putting any weight on after your 21st birthday is even a risk, according to last month's World Cancer report. |
| 'Arbitrary' figures | 'Arbitrary' figures |
| No one denies extreme obesity is bad for you, but some are now standing up to defend the overweight. Professor John Evans, from the School of Sport and Exercise Sciences at Loughborough University, doesn't believe the predictions. | No one denies extreme obesity is bad for you, but some are now standing up to defend the overweight. Professor John Evans, from the School of Sport and Exercise Sciences at Loughborough University, doesn't believe the predictions. |
| "There is very little evidence to say that being overweight is a signifier of a person or a population's health," he says. | "There is very little evidence to say that being overweight is a signifier of a person or a population's health," he says. |
| This may sound like heresy but there is good science to back it up. Only this month a study, led by Katherine Flegal of the USA Centre for Disease Control, reported that those who are overweight had no higher risk dying of cancer or heart disease and overall lived longer than those of "normal" weight. You might be surprised at her finding but she was not. | This may sound like heresy but there is good science to back it up. Only this month a study, led by Katherine Flegal of the USA Centre for Disease Control, reported that those who are overweight had no higher risk dying of cancer or heart disease and overall lived longer than those of "normal" weight. You might be surprised at her finding but she was not. |
| Many of the teachers we talk to can't recognise the epidemic of obesity that is always reported Professor John EvansLoughborough University class="" href="/1/hi/health/7106219.stm">Cost of obesity 'over-estimated' "There is actually a large amount of evidence that suggests that the overweight live the longest," she says. | |
| It's certainly not the public health message you normally hear. | It's certainly not the public health message you normally hear. |
| For instance, a recent study by Cancer Research UK reported that 6,000 women a year get cancer because of obesity. | For instance, a recent study by Cancer Research UK reported that 6,000 women a year get cancer because of obesity. |
| But look closer at the detail of the report and you find an unreported story. This research also found the overweight are no more likely to die of cancer than the slim. | But look closer at the detail of the report and you find an unreported story. This research also found the overweight are no more likely to die of cancer than the slim. |
| "Overall there is no evidence of a strong increase in risk in being overweight, but there is evidence of a significant increase for people who are obese," says Doctor Gillian Reeves, who led the study. | "Overall there is no evidence of a strong increase in risk in being overweight, but there is evidence of a significant increase for people who are obese," says Doctor Gillian Reeves, who led the study. |
| 'Built on sand' | 'Built on sand' |
| One of the most alarming statistics about obesity is that a third of children are now overweight. We are told that weight is now even a problem among the youngest school children. | One of the most alarming statistics about obesity is that a third of children are now overweight. We are told that weight is now even a problem among the youngest school children. |
| An estimated 25% of 5-year-olds are now overweight, according to the government's Health Survey for England. That might be the statistic, but some are still sceptical. | An estimated 25% of 5-year-olds are now overweight, according to the government's Health Survey for England. That might be the statistic, but some are still sceptical. |
| "Many of the teachers we talk to can't recognise the epidemic of obesity that is always reported," says Mr Evans. | "Many of the teachers we talk to can't recognise the epidemic of obesity that is always reported," says Mr Evans. |
| Some evidence suggests the overweight live longerWhen you visit schools it's certainly hard to find these large numbers of overweight kids. Doctor Linda Voss is the co-ordinator of the Early Bird Study, which is looking at the links between childhood obesity and diabetes. Put on the spot in a school even her expert eye failed to spot these numbers of fat kids. | Some evidence suggests the overweight live longerWhen you visit schools it's certainly hard to find these large numbers of overweight kids. Doctor Linda Voss is the co-ordinator of the Early Bird Study, which is looking at the links between childhood obesity and diabetes. Put on the spot in a school even her expert eye failed to spot these numbers of fat kids. |
| Like many experts, she thinks it's our view of normal that has changed. | Like many experts, she thinks it's our view of normal that has changed. |
| "I think I failed to spot the overweight kids because we are so used to seeing overweight kids these days," she says. | "I think I failed to spot the overweight kids because we are so used to seeing overweight kids these days," she says. |
| But another reason we can't see them could be because the figures are misleading. The figures the government use are based on a 1990 benchmark. It put the weight and height measurements from different surveys on a graph and decided that the top 15% of kids would be called overweight and the top 5% obese. As our children have got heavier, more and more have passed these benchmarks. | But another reason we can't see them could be because the figures are misleading. The figures the government use are based on a 1990 benchmark. It put the weight and height measurements from different surveys on a graph and decided that the top 15% of kids would be called overweight and the top 5% obese. As our children have got heavier, more and more have passed these benchmarks. |
| If you think the benchmarks seem rather arbitrary, the first to agree with you is the man who came up with them. | If you think the benchmarks seem rather arbitrary, the first to agree with you is the man who came up with them. |
| Scare the public | Scare the public |
| "I've taken a graph and drawn a line on it," says Tim Cole, professor of medical statistics at the Institute of Child Health. | "I've taken a graph and drawn a line on it," says Tim Cole, professor of medical statistics at the Institute of Child Health. |
| "I'm not saying they are healthy and they are not. The idea that these numbers are cast in stone is absolute nonsense. It is all built on sand." | "I'm not saying they are healthy and they are not. The idea that these numbers are cast in stone is absolute nonsense. It is all built on sand." |
| But the UK's way of calculating obese and overweight children isn't the only one. If we adopted the international standard we would roughly cut our figures for fat children in half. | But the UK's way of calculating obese and overweight children isn't the only one. If we adopted the international standard we would roughly cut our figures for fat children in half. |
| Experts like Professor Cole say that whatever figures you use, the underlying trend is going up. But critics say big scary statistics are a good way to unsettle the public and justify government intervention. | Experts like Professor Cole say that whatever figures you use, the underlying trend is going up. But critics say big scary statistics are a good way to unsettle the public and justify government intervention. |
| It's predicted obesity will cut life expectancy by 13 yearsAt last month's annual conference of the National Obesity Forum there was a vote of no confidence in the government policy on dealing with Britain's weight problem. | It's predicted obesity will cut life expectancy by 13 yearsAt last month's annual conference of the National Obesity Forum there was a vote of no confidence in the government policy on dealing with Britain's weight problem. |
| Forum board member Tam Fry was one of those who spoke out against the government. He has worked for a charity for years to publicise the risks of obesity. Yet he is obese himself. | Forum board member Tam Fry was one of those who spoke out against the government. He has worked for a charity for years to publicise the risks of obesity. Yet he is obese himself. |
| "Technically I am obese," he says. "But if you look at my size, my age, my height and my body type, I am not outstandingly obese." | "Technically I am obese," he says. "But if you look at my size, my age, my height and my body type, I am not outstandingly obese." |
| He is clear that he isn't blaming the government for his obesity, it was just that his obesity isn't a problem. | He is clear that he isn't blaming the government for his obesity, it was just that his obesity isn't a problem. |
| The obesity statistics are full of people, who like Tam, are fine at their weight. It's the small minority of very obese that are the problem, not the two-thirds of us the government defines as overweight. | The obesity statistics are full of people, who like Tam, are fine at their weight. It's the small minority of very obese that are the problem, not the two-thirds of us the government defines as overweight. |
| You can download The Investigation: Truth about obesity podcast class="inlineText" href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/radio/podcasts/fileon4/">here. | |
Add your comments on this story, using the form below. | Add your comments on this story, using the form below. |