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Sisi's Choices: Good and Bad Sisi's Choices: Good and Bad
(2 months later)
CAIRO — There is an old Jewish joke about a man who went to see his rabbi. “I have a wife and five children and we all live in one small room and I can’t afford to support them. Please pray to God to help me.” CAIRO — There is an old Jewish joke about a man who went to see his rabbi. “I have a wife and five children and we all live in one small room and I can’t afford to support them. Please pray to God to help me.”
The rabbi asked him to come back the next day. When the man arrived, he found the rabbi holding a goat.The rabbi asked him to come back the next day. When the man arrived, he found the rabbi holding a goat.
“The Lord commands you to take this goat home with you,” he was surprised to hear the rabbi say.“The Lord commands you to take this goat home with you,” he was surprised to hear the rabbi say.
The man complied, but a week later, he went back to complain about the goat. The rabbi counseled him to be patient until the Lord sent a new command. Another week went by, and the man came again, this time at the end of his tether.The man complied, but a week later, he went back to complain about the goat. The rabbi counseled him to be patient until the Lord sent a new command. Another week went by, and the man came again, this time at the end of his tether.
“The smell is unbearable, and the goat has ruined the furniture and hurt my children. I’d rather die than keep the goat.”“The smell is unbearable, and the goat has ruined the furniture and hurt my children. I’d rather die than keep the goat.”
The rabbi took it back. A week on, the rabbi asked the man how he was doing. The rabbi took it back. A week on, the rabbi asked the man how he was doing.
“We’re still poor and the room is still too small,” the man said, smiling, “but it’s wonderful at home now that the goat is gone!”“We’re still poor and the room is still too small,” the man said, smiling, “but it’s wonderful at home now that the goat is gone!”
This might throw some light on what is happening in Egypt. The Egyptians who rebelled against President Hosni Mubarak and overthrew him have lived for three years through conditions worse than those they revolted against. Security has broken down, the economy is in the doldrums and Egyptian society is threatened by anarchy.This might throw some light on what is happening in Egypt. The Egyptians who rebelled against President Hosni Mubarak and overthrew him have lived for three years through conditions worse than those they revolted against. Security has broken down, the economy is in the doldrums and Egyptian society is threatened by anarchy.
According to government statistics, the unemployment rate rose to over 13 percent (up to 3.7 million for the first quarter of this year from 2.4 million in the first quarter of 2010). A huge fall in foreign visitors dealt a crushing blow to the tourism industry; its revenue in the first three months of 2014 fell by 43 percent from the same quarter in 2013. The number of those living in poverty — officially defined as earning less than $500 a year — rose from 21.6 percent in 2009 to 26.3 percent at the end of 2013.According to government statistics, the unemployment rate rose to over 13 percent (up to 3.7 million for the first quarter of this year from 2.4 million in the first quarter of 2010). A huge fall in foreign visitors dealt a crushing blow to the tourism industry; its revenue in the first three months of 2014 fell by 43 percent from the same quarter in 2013. The number of those living in poverty — officially defined as earning less than $500 a year — rose from 21.6 percent in 2009 to 26.3 percent at the end of 2013.
The millions now celebrating the presidential victory of the former army chief, Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, are the same people who were in the streets celebrating the fall of Mr. Mubarak, and who then came out cheering Mohamed Morsi’s election as president in 2012, and who demonstrated last June to have him ousted.The millions now celebrating the presidential victory of the former army chief, Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, are the same people who were in the streets celebrating the fall of Mr. Mubarak, and who then came out cheering Mohamed Morsi’s election as president in 2012, and who demonstrated last June to have him ousted.
In short, these Egyptians have been so ground down by poverty, anarchy, the lack of security and ceaseless terrorist attacks that they worship President Sisi as a hero and look to him to rescue them from their travails.In short, these Egyptians have been so ground down by poverty, anarchy, the lack of security and ceaseless terrorist attacks that they worship President Sisi as a hero and look to him to rescue them from their travails.
During a recent public meeting, a woman exclaimed to him: “My son was set upon and killed by armed men in the street. I have lost my son and all I ask of you is security. Just security.” She typifies the millions of Egyptians who want order restored at any cost. They don’t care about the return of a police state or the reports from human rights organizations condemning the arbitrary arrests and the torture of detainees.During a recent public meeting, a woman exclaimed to him: “My son was set upon and killed by armed men in the street. I have lost my son and all I ask of you is security. Just security.” She typifies the millions of Egyptians who want order restored at any cost. They don’t care about the return of a police state or the reports from human rights organizations condemning the arbitrary arrests and the torture of detainees.
Mr. Sisi’s supporters, who are the majority, have lost much of their enthusiasm for the 2011 revolution. They consider it the cause of all the subsequent crises, and they have been subjected to a fierce propaganda effort on the TV channels owned by Mr. Mubarak’s former cronies claiming that the Tahrir Square protests were an American-inspired plot. Despite the absence of evidence, this smear campaign had such an effect on public opinion that many young revolutionaries found themselves accused of being traitors.Mr. Sisi’s supporters, who are the majority, have lost much of their enthusiasm for the 2011 revolution. They consider it the cause of all the subsequent crises, and they have been subjected to a fierce propaganda effort on the TV channels owned by Mr. Mubarak’s former cronies claiming that the Tahrir Square protests were an American-inspired plot. Despite the absence of evidence, this smear campaign had such an effect on public opinion that many young revolutionaries found themselves accused of being traitors.
Mr. Sisi can also count on support from state institutions, as well as from those who made their fortunes in the Mubarak era. The latter hope that Mr. Sisi will be a new Mubarak who will consolidate their wealth and influence.Mr. Sisi can also count on support from state institutions, as well as from those who made their fortunes in the Mubarak era. The latter hope that Mr. Sisi will be a new Mubarak who will consolidate their wealth and influence.
Still lurking on the political stage, though, is the Muslim Brotherhood, which refuses to accept that the population rose up against it. The Brotherhood prefers to live in an ideological realm where it is fighting a holy war for Islam against the enemies of religion. Stage left are the revolutionaries who oppose Mr. Sisi and reject his authoritarianism even if it restores law and order. So far, the opposition to Mr. Sisi is weak.Still lurking on the political stage, though, is the Muslim Brotherhood, which refuses to accept that the population rose up against it. The Brotherhood prefers to live in an ideological realm where it is fighting a holy war for Islam against the enemies of religion. Stage left are the revolutionaries who oppose Mr. Sisi and reject his authoritarianism even if it restores law and order. So far, the opposition to Mr. Sisi is weak.
Has the Egyptian revolution therefore run its course? Revolutions may be defeated, but not reversed, since they bring about deep, irrevocable changes in human outlook and behavior. Egyptians have conquered their fear and learned how to determine the fate of their country. They have toppled two presidents in less than three years. Mr. Sisi’s current overwhelming support is thus not absolute, but conditional upon his realizing what Egyptians want.Has the Egyptian revolution therefore run its course? Revolutions may be defeated, but not reversed, since they bring about deep, irrevocable changes in human outlook and behavior. Egyptians have conquered their fear and learned how to determine the fate of their country. They have toppled two presidents in less than three years. Mr. Sisi’s current overwhelming support is thus not absolute, but conditional upon his realizing what Egyptians want.
The new president has three options. He can rework the old system, protecting corrupt officials and continuing Mr. Mubarak’s policies, which relied on repression and graft. The gamble for Mr. Sisi would be whether Egyptians, who endured that sort of regime for 30 years, would have the stomach to rise up against it again.The new president has three options. He can rework the old system, protecting corrupt officials and continuing Mr. Mubarak’s policies, which relied on repression and graft. The gamble for Mr. Sisi would be whether Egyptians, who endured that sort of regime for 30 years, would have the stomach to rise up against it again.
The second course is to reinstall the type of national-revolutionary autocratic rule so prevalent in Arab countries in the 1950s and ’60s, with a strongman imposing a kind of egalitarianism while depriving people of political rights. History shows that even a well-meaning dictator ends up dragging his country into catastrophe, his achievements tinged with tyranny.The second course is to reinstall the type of national-revolutionary autocratic rule so prevalent in Arab countries in the 1950s and ’60s, with a strongman imposing a kind of egalitarianism while depriving people of political rights. History shows that even a well-meaning dictator ends up dragging his country into catastrophe, his achievements tinged with tyranny.
The third way is the most difficult. Mr. Sisi should exploit his sweeping popularity to make a genuine effort to stamp out corruption, bring in progressive taxation and reduce poverty. At the same time, he should guarantee personal freedoms, put an end to arrests and torture and respect the Constitution and the law.The third way is the most difficult. Mr. Sisi should exploit his sweeping popularity to make a genuine effort to stamp out corruption, bring in progressive taxation and reduce poverty. At the same time, he should guarantee personal freedoms, put an end to arrests and torture and respect the Constitution and the law.
We’ll soon know which option Mr. Sisi chooses.We’ll soon know which option Mr. Sisi chooses.
Alaa Al Aswany is the author of “The Yacoubian Building.” This article was translated by Russell Harris from the Arabic.Alaa Al Aswany is the author of “The Yacoubian Building.” This article was translated by Russell Harris from the Arabic.